The knives were out for England following their disappointment
against Australia last week but today’s encounter against South Africa might
offer them more chance for redemption than either the stats or the general
opinion might suggest.
Pessimists will point out that you have to go back to
November 2010 for England’s last victory against one of the Wallabies, South
Africa or New Zealand, and that South Africa – with 9 wins in 10 against
England - have only lost one game against a team outside of the top three in
the world rankings (against Scotland in November 2010) but this is by no means
a Springbok vintage and this should be comfortably their biggest test of the
three fixtures they’ve had so far on tour and both Ireland and Scotland showed
more than enough to suggest that England aren’t without a chance of ending their
tri-nations hoodoo.
An Ireland side shorn of 6 first choice players had the
Springboks on the ropes for the whole first half before a sustained fightback
saw them sneak home by just the four points, and a 21-3 lead – 7 of those
points gifted by Mike Blair’s awful throw – turned into a very nervous last 30 minutes
at Murrayfield last week. South Africa’s brutal defence saw them home on that
occasion but it was a good deal closer than scoreline suggested and there’s no
denying that England are a step up on both of those teams.
Dominated in the scrum and upfront, and too often failing in
the opposition 22, Stuart Lancaster’s side were castigated for what was a below
par performance last week but it’s worth remembering that they did give up 9
kickable points before we even get to the result and they made plenty of decent
chances. Had Thomas Waldrom not dropped the ball over the line midway through
the second half after a catch and drive at the lineout, we could easily be
talking about a side in the top 4 of the world rankings right now. It’s also
worth remembering that in midsummer the aggregate score between the two was
72-60, with the last test being a 14-14 draw and one of the tests being at altitude.
The power of the England pack is still a worry following last
week but measures have been taken to make sure that won’t happen again. With Loosehead
prop Alex Corbisiero, blindside flanker Tom Wood and No8 Ben Morgan all coming
into the side to offer the ball carrying power needed to beat the Springboks,
while Mike Brown is employed as the second fullback to deal with the boots of
Pat Lambie and Ruan Pienaar.
South Africa name an unchanged XV which does boast some
talent – Eden Ezetbeth was magnificent against Scotland, Willem Alberts and Adrian
Strauss (pictured) have had a great season – but it’s not an unbeatable one if England can
get field position – they had plenty last week at times – or enough wide ball
to threaten the Springbok defence. Considering the progress that England have
made over the last year and the performances that South Africa have twice
offered it’s tempting to go for the home win once again, but a horrendous forecast
tempers enthusiasm for that and it might be best to go for under 3 tries – the
Springboks have scored just 3 in their two games and there were only two
between England (who are likely to take the points if offered them this time)
and Australia last week despite a raft of opportunities for both sides.
Elsewhere, it might be best to dutch 1-5 point winning margins for both sides
in what should be a nailbiter.
Advice
1 pt South Africa to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general)
1 pt England to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general)
2 pts Under 2.5 tries (11/10 general)
No comments:
Post a Comment