QBE Autumn Internationals 2012 - England v Australia

It’s been just over a year since Stuart Lancaster took over England but the side that bids for a third straight win against Australia will be unrecognisable from the one that scrapped so hard to beat Scotland and Italy and their progress can be bookended with a convincing win against Robbie Deans’s under fire Wallabies at Twickenham on Saturday.

England's forwards have traditionally dominated Australia in Cook Cup clashes

In their mission to keep their fourth place world ranking to gain a top seeding to go with the home adnvtage that they’ll have in just over three years’ time for the World Cup, England came into this series knowing they’d have to beat at least two of the Tri Nations to keep that ranking when France beat Australia last weekend, so an easy 54-12 win against Fiji hould have told us nothing in hindsight, but from the spectacle on show at the Stade De France there couldn’t be a better time to face Robbie Deans’s side.

In a 33-6 defeat we saw arguably one of the worst Wallabies performances of recent years, but also a prefect blueprint for a first English three timer against the Wallabies since the days of Sir Clive Woodward. It’s no secret that Australia’s most fallible area at Test level is their scrum. It was the very weapon England used to knock them out of the World Cup in France, something which Ireland replicated in uncanny fashion four years later in Auckland, and the basis for France’s revenge for the 59-16 embarrassment which had taken place two years earlier.

The utterly domaint scrum, along with the superb performance from the all Clermont front row in the latter stages, laid down the platform for Michalaras and Machenaud to wreak havoc in midfield despite France having just 40% possession and territory all game. There’s no doubting that England are equally as powerful, if not more, in the forward ranks and Graham Rowntree will have no doubt been educating his men all week on the weak points of the Australian pack, especially in a game refereed by Romain Poite, famous for rewarding dominance at the scrum.

Australia can at least call back fullback Berrick Barnes and winger Digby Ioane, second rower Sitaleki Timani and tight-head prop Ben Alexander, but they’re still missing Will Genia, David Pocock, Quade Cooper, James Horwill, James O'Connor, Matt Giteau, and Rocky Elsom, and they come against an England side which has been steadily improving for more than a year both forward and back, and one which beat a superior side 35-18 little more than a year ago. The mouthwatering handicap of 5 has already been and gone (although we told you to get on before it went) but even marks as big as 8 are worth considering (Australia have lost 33-6 in France and 31-8 in South Africa this year), although the 8/11 on Lancaster’s men leading at half and full time is a bet that can’t be passed up – Australia have been behind on 7 occasions going into the break this year.

Those looking for winning margins are directed to the 1-12 point lines – Australia will be fired up not to be embarrassed again and having Berrick Barnes on the tee which bring out improvement – although the second half handicap of 3.5 makes appeal  and so does the point mark of 25 or more. With England having been so strong after the break against Fiji and notably Ireland, when a second half blitz of 22 points saw them trash the Celts 30-6 thanks to a penalty try and plenty of penalty dominance, the latter makes a touch more appeal.

Alex Goode was superb against Fiji

Advice

6 pts England/England (8/11 Paddy Power, Blue Sq, 888Sport)

2 pts England –3.5 On second half no draw handicap (5/6 Betfred)

Already Advised (12^th November)

England -5 (10/11 Paddy Power)