Despite three Grand Slams in the last 8 years Wales have arguably never had more potential and with a top 4 IRB Rankings spot up from grabs and a Northern Hemisphere World Cup in sight – much like the other nations –make no mistake, this is one of the most crucial months in recent years for Wales. Often impressive and then flattering to deceive, the remarkable progress made by Warren Gatland’s side over the past 2 years has been unmatched by any side in world rugby, with a sensational run to what many believe should and would have been the World Cup final but for Sam Warburton’s red card followed up in such great style by their tremendous Grand Slam, gained with victories on the road at Landsdowne Road and Twickenham.
It was to be hoped they could finally experience some success down under and while that didn’t happen, a 3-0 series defat was probably the most misleading score that anyone will see in a test series between two Tier 1 nations; Australia won the three tests but only by a combined margin of 11 points thanks to some costly Welsh errors. That, combined with home advantage –Wales have won their last four Test matches at the Millennium Stadium, and six of the last seven – and the fact that Argentina lost twice to Australia in the Rugby Championship, makes Wales worthy 10 point favourites for all that it doesn’t look to be a cast iron choice with the Pumas having proven their credentials so readily in the recent Rugby Championship.
Santiago Phelan’s men have proven themselves more than worthy of their place in the newly created Championship despite only getting one result – a draw against the Boks on home turf. They had Australia well down and on the ropes in the Gold Coast, held New Zealand to just 5 points in the first half before going down only 21-5 in the end, and of course held South Africa. Their grit and termination won’t phase Wales, but the same obdurate style which Gatland has used to his advantage is sure to give a proper test to a side which has made 7 changes to the outfit beaten just a point by the Wallabies, with Adam Jones sidelined by a knee injury, flanker Dan Lyidate having an ankle knock, and Ryan Jones's shoulder injury ruling him out of Saturday's Test against Argentina. That’s three of the Grand Slam winning pack gone for what could be the most physical of their four clashes.
In better news, the back row is completely fit and brings with it the devastating power and finesse of Alex Cuthbert and George North on both wings, while Leigh Halfpenny’s burgeoning reputation as one of the best fullbacks’ around has been enhanced by his exploits with the Blues so far this season. Argentina are sure to put up a tenacious showing but home advantage should give Wales the win, with the value looking split between a home win by 1-12 points and the second half no draw handicap of 5 points with Betfred. Argentina have been outscored by an average 7 points in the second half during the Rugby Championship while Wales let in just two tries during the second half of their 6 Nations. The physical nature of Gatland’s side – who have been training in Spala once again in preparation for this series – leands themselves towards the second half handicap and with Argentina seeming to lose their impetus after the break, the bet makes obvious appeal.
Advice
2 pts Wales -4.5 on 2nd half no draw h’cap (4/5 Betfred)
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