Test Rugby returns for four glorious weeks as the end of year
sporting feast truly begins, with the motivation for the QBE internationals as
high as it’s ever been. The 2015 World Cup hosts England have just over 2 years
to prepare for the trophy, and first on the list for Lancaster’s men would be
to gain one of the top 4 seeding spots that allow one to avoid the ‘Tri-Nations’
– themselves well clear – in the pool stages. England lie fourth, being the
only European team currently there, but they’re only a fraction ahead of France
(0.06 points to be exact) with one of the strongest Wales sides of recent
memory on their tail. Considering that France have only one game against the
big powers – Australia, who they are 4/6 to beat (more on that later) – and that
England will play the big three, albeit at Twickenham, the next month is arguably
the most vital since Lancaster’s appointment after the World Cup fiasco.
England have come a long way since that dreadful defeat to
France, with an extremely strong 6 National seeing them beat all but Wales (and
even that could have gone differently with the controversial TMO call against
Strettle in the last minute). A dramatic 22-24 win against France – making them
the first side to win a 6 Nations game in Paris for four years - was a huge
step forward for the young side which then thrashed Ireland at Twickenham to
become Europe’s second best team with some ease.
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| Danny Care's impressive form has given England strength in depth |
They may have failed to win one of their Autumn Tests but they
improved with time in South Africa to the point of holding the hosts to a draw
in the last test and over the three matches the score between the two was 72-60,
an impressive difference considering one of the tests was at altitude. In
short, it doesn’t look too bad for Lancaster’s men although they have yet
tougher tests coming up in the next month.
Given they have to play the world’s top three, starting
their series against Fiji might have been a smart plan with all due respect. The
Islanders do have some fond memories of trips to the Northern Heimsphere – a famous
win and draw against Wales in recent seasons – but since then the finer intricacies
of Rugby Laws have robbed them of a lot of talent. It was only in this week’s Breakdown that I learned that the
islanders supply more than 30 eligible players to the three major leagues in
Europe but fewer than 10 were named in the original squad for this month's tour.
Some late call ups have beefed up the lineup condiserably – Leicester's
Vereniki Goneva lining up alongside Exeter Chiefs' Sireli Naqelevuki in the
centres is a boost, Scarlets prop Deacon Manu is a valuable addition while
Gloucester's Akapusi Qera has been one of the form 8’s in Europe so far this
season, but this is a side which lacks the all-round quality of even an experimental
England side and on home soil, the question is how far.If forced to pick a side on the handicap, I’d go for England
but a 32 point winning margin is on the big side and should Lancaster’s side
take time to gel, then they may possibly fall short. Instead dutching winning
margins of 21-30 and 31-40 with Paddy Power might be a better play.
Advice
1 pt England to win by 21-30 points (7/2 Paddy Power)
1 pt England to win by 31-40 points (10/3 Paddy Power)
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