Hennessy Gold Cup Chase 2012

3.10 Newbury

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £85,425

Advice: 1 pt win The Package (10/1 general), 1 pt win Hold On Julio (9/1 general)*

Tidal Bay: As quirky as any horse in racing but top class when he consents, as he showed when romping away with Bet365 Gold Cup (3m5f, soft, but ground not an issue) off top weight (154) on last start of last season an good sign when winning Grade 2 hurdle easily on reappearance; This mark a big one to lump but an go well and will take the beating if in the mood.

Roberto Goldback: High class veteran who was as good as he’s ever ben on debut for Nicky Henderson when romping away with valuable Ascot handicap on reappearance (beat Duke Of Lucca and Alfie Spinner with ease, and now 12lbs worse off); Needs respecting under Jerry McGrath although this a much tougher task.

Bobs Worth: Top class as both novice hurdler/chaser, gaining second Cheltenham Festival win in two tries (1111 at that course) when battling to get the better of First Lieutenant (here too, and 2lbs better off) in RSA Chase at the end of eventful season (testament to his ability that he won); Second seasons Worries that he wouldn’t turn up at beginning of the of the week but ground improved markedly and if dry night quickens ground he has to be at the top of the list.

First Lieutenant: Relatively poor first season chasing but improved hand over fist for good ground and three miles when second to Bobs Worth in RSA; Weighted to come even closer today (2lbs) although the extra distance might not suit; Is still one fo the best in this race however and his second in Down Royal Grade 1 is very encouraging for one who has always shown his best form later in the season; Respected.

Hold On Juilio: Very steady progress over fences on all but one occasion (failed to fire at Cheltenham Festival), winning 3 out of 5 chasing starts but impressing deeply two starts ago when ready winner of valuable handicap chase at Sandown (form worked out really well); Promising comeback when staying on third at Cheltenham on reappearance and while he’s 4lbs higher in better race, the main worry is his jumping; Goes close with clear round.

Lion Na Bearnai: Sprung shock when winning Grade 2 novice chase and then the Irish Grand National (3m5f) on final two starts last season; Poor first time out record (8060) and hiked in the handicap since, so others make more appeal than one who would want things not to happen too quickly.

Carruthers: Massive chance based on his win in this last year, and he now is only 1lbs higher; Not shown any of that form since (understandably) but this is first time he’s had his ground for a good while and ground improving is a good sign; Might go well but needs to consent.

The Package: Been extremely progressive ever since tackling fences and reached high level of form in handicaps, coming second and fourth in two renewals of 3m handicap chase at Cheltenham Festival, latter after a long layoff; As good as ever when romping home in Bager Ales Trophy at Wincanton and while up 8lbs in better race, runner up highly regarded and rest nowhere (he also had much more to give); Right up there on the list.

Teaforthree: Stout staying chaser who was last man standing to win 4m NH Chase at the Festival in quite impressive style; Return over 3m3f promising enough considering his target looks likely to be the Grand National and would have been of interest on soft ground but needs a ridiculous pace to get involved her and only small place shout.

Fruity O’Rooney:  Would have to be given a major shout based on his handicap chase form of last season, most notably his Cheltenham Festival handicap second; Ignore hurdles comeback, has cheekpieces on, ground come right for him and very interesting of the major outsiders.

Saint Are: Able to outbattle talented but enigmatic Battle Group at Aintree for valuable handicap win on National Day (pair clear); 8lbs up in better race and not sure this ground will suit so much, so others preferred.

Duke Of Lucca: Shaky first season over fences but got hang of things regards jumping when drawing right away to beat three other rivals at Bangor and Cheltenham; Second in Roberto Goldback’s race and 12lbs better off, but not sure that enough to turn around form or win; Stamina also a potential issue for him.

Diamond Harry: Thrown in on his 2010 winning form of this, and now 13lbs lower; Excuses can be made for his failures (have gone on too strong when fourth in Betfair Chase and it’s now clear he doesn’t like Cheltenham) but does seem to have fallen out of love with the game and could only be backed in running if showing zest early on.

Magnaminity: Top class at his best (RSA Chase fourth just a couple of seasons back) and Grade 2 winner in that season too; Don’t think stamina an issue and mark has dropped significantly but wants the ground much softer than this.

Harry The Viking: Highly progressive as a novice last season (second to Teaforthreee in NH Chase at Cheltenham) and still going well enough until blundering his chances away on return at Cheltenham latest.

Ikorudu Road: Interesting that the cheekpieces he had on for his wins in the Grimthorpe and similarly valuable handicap over C&D; Disappointing in Scottish National but hurdles return is encouraging; Does seem weighted to best on that evidence.

Frisco Depot: In process of running a big race when falling at Ascot last month behind Roberto Goldback, and earlier for form Dessie Hughes makes this mark (plus Sam Waley-Cohen’s 5lbs mark) look very generous; Some have raised stamina concerns but should stay fine and fairly lightly weighted here, so of interest.

Soll: Hugely promising chaser for Willie Mullins who must have masses more to give (only run 6 time in his life); Looked good when winning at Down Royal last season (fell to early to judge how well he was doing at Festival) and while his mark could be a snip and he would be shorter from bigger stable, this an uber stiff assignment for one so inexperienced.

Alfie Spinner: Just the one win last season but did it well at Chepstow and Ascot there behind Invictus and RSA Chase winner Bobs Worth looks good now but only fifth in NH Chase and needs to find improvement from somewhere.

VERDICT: Three dry days have changed the complexion of the ground at Newbury, having changed the ground from heavy to soft, and it may well get quicker before racing, which would put the emphasis on class once again. The dry days should be of a great help to favourite and RSA Chase winner Bobs Worth, who will love the extra two furlongs and is the class act here, while he remains unexposed having had the just the four runs over fences. There’s a slight worry he won’t be at concern pitch for this, but the ground would be a bigger one and if he’s to be taking a hand in the Gold Cup he should be going close to emulating Trabolgan and Denman, and at 5/1 there looks to be few flaws with him and he's the class act. First Lieutant looks too big at 10/1 given how he’s 2lbs better off here with Bobs Worth, but I’m not sure he wants a trip and it might pay to stick with the experienced handicappers for now, in HOLD ON JULIO and THE PACKAGE, both of whom have extremely strong claims on their recent performances, should enjoy the accent on stamina given here and who will have no problems going the pace of a strongly run Hennessy; Others to consider are Frisco Depot, Tidal Bay and Fruity O’Rooney. 


UPDATE: After a dry night, the ground looks right for second season class acts BOBS WORTH and FIRST LIEUTENANT, who are well worth supporting at their current prices, with 20/1 for Bobs Worth to do a 'Denman' (win this and the Gold Cup) well worth a small tinkle.

Advice: 1 pt win Bobs Worth (5/1 general), 1 pt win First Lieutenant (10/1 general), 1 pt Bobs Worth to win today and Gold Cup (20/1 Hills)


*Paddy Power and Bet365 are going 5 places 1/4 the odds
** Do check the ground conditions tomorrow for Bobs Worth and First Lieutenant