8.14 Santa Anita
Breeders´ Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Dirt) (3yo+)
Winner £387,097
Advice: No bet.
Rail Trip: Been a solid performer since being brought over
from Europe, but 0-5 on dirt so far and even worse, unplaced on all three tries
in Graded company on dirt; Passed over.
Delegation: Won on all three of his Polytrack tries in
Canada, lately when settling leisurely splits to win weak Grade 3 at Woodbine
over 1m1f; Will be pushed from the get go if leading here and may overcook it. 
Jersey Town: Sixth of 9 in this last year when chasing far
too hard a pace early on and behind Emcee when third in Forgo Stakes (also lost
place late); Impressive Kelso handicap win came as benefit of smarter riding
but also handy weight and that form might be reversed here. 
John Scott: Back to something like his best after troubled
two and half years off the track when holding off Rail Trip on Polytrack; May
have been beaten off worse terms next time out but slow start cost him in the California
Cup Classic latest; Pace profile suits right down to the ground but not sure he
handles dirt; Tempting. 
Fed Biz: Dual C&D winner, most impressive on the second
of those occasions when chasing hot fractions and drawing right away for an
easy win; Beaten when hot favourite for Indiana Derby and hard to fancy here
due to different in strength between those two races here; despite fact he’s
back at Santa Anita latest. 
Shackleford: Brave, gutsy front running type who’s all heart
and burned off all but Caleb’s Posse in the 2011 renewal; Since won Grade 1 Metropolitan
Handicap and needed the run after seven weeks off when giving weight to Jersey
Town, but the worry is that he’s going to find one too good after chasing or
setting hot pace; Still be right there. 
Emcee: Extremely talented horse who posted career best when
drawing right away to win Forego latest, looking as if he was in trouble before
finding second wind; Mustn’t sit to clos to a ridiculous pace but dam a miler
and Sire did best over 1m1f, so shaped as if going around the turn shouldn’t
hinder him much and has to be taken seriously. 
Tapizar: Never able to get to Schalkeford when beaten in
this last year and hard to see why that should change this time around; Beaten
when unable to lead in the Kelso latest. 
Second City: Led from the front for a hat trick of 7f wins
on the pace, but different tactics use d to gain Graded win at 1m1f; Latter
performance would make of interest if the leaders overdo it.
VERDICT: The three renewals which have been run on dirt have
all set up for a closer from well off the pace, and there’s a worry that
Schalkeford will burn off the early speed and then prove vulnerable in deep
stretch as he has done so often in the past, much like when second in this last
year. EMCEE is a rightful favourite and should stay, but there’s a worry that his
career best Forego win came when stalking a hot pace around 7f; If he sits off
the pace, he can take the beating but he’s too short for the risk. Jersey Town
is worse off with Shackleford at the weights for their meeting last time but he
won very well and might be ridden to pick up pieces late, in which case he has
to be right there late, while Fed Biz looks to have too much on his plate and
might race too close to the pace. John Scott would be hugely interesting if he
had a better dirt record and is worth playing in running if the leaders are
going mental early.
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