Breeders' Cup 2012 - Marathon

8.46 Santa Anita

Breeders´ Cup Marathon (Grade 2) (3yo+) (Dirt) (3yo+) Winner £193,548

Advice: 1 pt win Aitgun (5/1 Coral), 1 pt Not Repeating (8/1 general)

Atigun: Made rapid improvement this year as 3yo, following Churchill claiming win with staying on third in Belmont, only dropped deep in final furlong; Since run fourth twice in Grade 1 company over 1m2f, notably in Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont latest; That has to be the best form in this field and while this trip technically an unknown, shapes as if he’ll improve for a step up in distance and has to be high on the list.

Fame And Glory: Class ahead of these at his best, notably when top middle distance horse and then top class stayer, clear cut winner of Ascot Gold Cup last year; Hasn’t been at his best for quite some time and not battling like he used to, while not bred for dirt and never shaped as if he’d enjoy it at all; Opposable.

Balladry: Ran a stinker when last and beaten 24 lengths behind Game On Dude in Grade 1 last time, but credit to him, had shaped well when third in the Cougar II Handicap, although he was generously weighted; Blinkers off for first time, and going further than he ever has done.

Grassy: Would have to be a lot shorter in the market if this was on turf, having plenty of graded form over middle distances to his name (shapes as if getting 1m4f won’t be impossible) but not bred for it and this first try on dirt; Jockey upgrade to Gomez interesting but others make more appeal.

Jaycito: Does have more talent than the majority of this field (Grade 1 winner), although been in and out of late and goes half a mile longer than he ever has before; No wins in four on dirt, so others preferred.

Caldioscopio: South American raider; Transformed by switch to new yard, easy winner of Argentinean Grade 2 over 1m5f when last seen; Doubt conditions will be a problem but has no Grade 1 wins in South America from 17 tries and that a worry.

Not Abroad: Easy winner of the Maryland Million Classic at Laurel (beaten by Eldaafeer but was giving 4lbs); Grade 2 form earlier this year stacks up well and seems likely to get further than 1m4f, so has to be high on the list here for the home team if staying back off a fast pace early.

Romp: Well beaten in the 2012 renewal of this race and easily beaten by Dhaaamer in Sunset Handicap when getting 5lbs in weight from winner and last behind Richards Kid at Del Mar; Usually races on Turf and other surfaces, so hard to fancy.

Almundena: Group 2 winner in  Peru, regularly over 1m4f while shaping as if further would not be a problem; Grade 1 third in Argentina’s second biggest race good form and consistently big runner so interesting at a price.

Eldaafer: Clear cut winner of this in 2010, although well beaten last year; Beat Not Aboard in Grade 3 convcingly, although in receipt of 4lbs for the 3lbs beating that he gave him; That said, latest third in Hawthorne Gold Cup is extremely promising effort and must be seriously respected.

Commander: On a roll, having won his last six from 6f-1m3f when winning the BC Premier’s Handicap latest; Gained nearly all of those successes using just pure speed, so this trip a worry, but respected.

Sense Of Purpose: Smart at her best, as she showed when winning Listed and Group 3, being the beneficiary of fine ride to land Ballyroan Stakes at Leopardstown; Not had anything go her way since, including being stuck into last time, but bred for turf rather than dirt and hard to be interested in for all trainers are capable.

Juniper Pass: Has won a Grade 2 over dirt and confirmed to stay 1m6f, which instantly gives him appeal; Last time connections decided to leave blinkers off, he did win said Grade 2, but was well beaten by Worth Repeating the last time the two met.

VERDICT: A race which is still struggling to find it’s indemnity, particularly with the dirt angle pushing away the Europeans and the trip being still alien to most Americans. ATIGUN’S Grade 1 form gives him a favourite’s chance here if staying, and his Belmont Stakes third (having taken a fierce hold, being dropped back to last, and then had to come wide) gives huge encouragement on that score, while his two Grade 1 fourths over 10 furlongs are hugely encouraging, with the three who beat him in the Jockey Club Gold Cup all going for the Classic tomorrow, so with a 3yo allowance a price of 11/2 seems more than fair. Fame and Glory isn’t the horse of old before you consider that he may not actually take to dirt, while Sense Of Purpose has the same surface problem, so NOT ABROAD makes most appeal of the others here, with Not Abroad’s terrific Autumn record making him the slight pick. Of the others, don’t discount the South America ins Calidscpio and Alumdena, while Jaycito has a lot of class if staying.