Australia v South Africa - 3rd Test Preview

Before even starting with tomorrow’s crunch encounter between Australia and South Africa to decide the top spot in test cricket, it’s time to pay tribute to one of the all-time great sportspeople. Ricky Ponting announced his retirement earlier today, on the eve of what will be his final test. There are many moments to remember Ponting by, but my favourite will always be the 257 he scored against India in that series between the two at the peak of their powers, which was Ponting all over. Brutal, relentless, unforgiving cricket over several days against the best the world had to offer.

The only player to score a century in both innings of a test match (one of sport’s great achievements, let alone cricket) there are many reasons to remember Ponting (good or bad, some might say). But at the end of the day, he is the second highest runscorer in the history of the game, has the most test victories of any captain, most runs by an Australian, most centuries by an Australian, and most consecutive test victories by a captain. He will go down a legend.

Ricky Ponting retires a true legend of the game, and of modern sport 

And it’s fitting he should go down in such a series; One which has been blood sweat and tears from the first ball with all to play for down to the last moment. The score may be 0-0 but the tests have been anything but, and only an epic rearguard reaction on two occasions have presented Australia from taking the No.1 spot already; The rain having come to their assistance in Brisbane and Faf Du Plessis/Jacques Kallis (a player who’s in the rank of aged greats such as Ponting) having put in an epic rearguard in Adelaide.

This test is the real decider for not only the series but the No.1 ranking, and as if that wasn’t reason enough to get up at 3AM, only two of the last 18 tests here have been drawn and both teams have an exceptional record here - Australia have won their last three test matches at this venue comprising of an innings plus hiding of India in January, a 267 run win over England in 2010 and a 35 run win over West Indies in 2009, while the Proteas  won by six wickets here in 2008 and the teams drew here on the Proteas tour in 2005 which was the last test match draw seen on this ground.

Australia have had by far the best of the two tests so far and would have to make more appeal on a betting basis, for all that South Africa have kept them out on two occasions so far and will face an attack devoid of Peter Siddle and Ben Hilfenaus (with 14 wickets between them), the principal pair who took them so close to victory in Adelaide (understandable after just 3 days rest from bowling 33 and 34 overs respectively). That said, the worries over Jacques Kallis fitness are just as big for South Africa, for whom he battled his way agonizingly to scores of 58 and 46 while taking 19-2 in the 1^st innings. His bowling is already lost; The middle order without his bating would look frightfully weak on the evidence of the past two weeks.

With such notable bowling absences and a batter’s pitch in general, the betting value might be with the batsmen. Largely thanks to Michael Clarke, Australia’s two 1^st innings totals have been 565 and 550, while in the last year only once have they failed to pass 311 in their first innings, so a mark of 326 is more than reasonable for their first innings score with Ladbrokes and looks to be well worth backing. Michael Clarke’s remarkable year – 1,309 runs in just 13 innings – just seems to keep going and he already has two double centuries in three innings, so 7/1 on Ladbrokes’s batsman handicap just looks too good to pass up once again.

With a century on his last visit and a century in Adelaide, Graeme Smith +5 is tempting but that was his only big score on tour and others make more appeal. Another market to consider would be the top Australia bowler, which should come down to Mitchell Starc (5 wickets so far, but that’s the second most of any Aussie bowler playing today barring Lyon) and Mitchell Johnson, who has 30 wickets in four Tests. Better value might be Australia for the 1^st innings lead (they’ve outscored South Africa in every innings so far) or even better, the 101-200 runs lead at 4/1 with Paddy Power, which has come in twice so far in the two tests.

Advice

6 pts Australia to score 326 or more 1st innings runs (5/6 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Australia to have 1st innings lead of 101-200 runs (4/1 Paddy Power)

1 pt Michael Clarke on 1^st Innings Batsman Handicap (7/1 Ladbrokes)