Breeders Cup 2012 - Mile

11.40 Santa Anita

Breeders’ Cup Mile

Advice: 1 pt Moonlight Cloud w/o Wise Dan and Excelebration (11/10 Hills)

Mr Commons: Third behind Trailblazer and Obviously in strong race over C&D here last time, beaten just a length by that pair; Strong form and should prove hard to pass, but worry that he just won’t be good enough or be vulnerable to a turn of foot; Others preferred by possible smart in running trade.

Wise Dan: Remarkable horse, one of the world’s best, with Grade 1 winning form on all three major surfaces and a 4-5 record on Turf; Smashed his opposition in major miles races the last twice, equally impressive at Woodbine and Keenland; How easily he beat Cityscape into third despite getting small amount of weight confirms that he’s as good as the Euros and the one to beat today.

Obviously: Won his last three races in Calfiornia over this trip when gunning from the front, notably when holding off Mr Commons and Trailblazer last time; Would have to be given serious chance if able to get an easy lead and while everyone will try to run him down late, soft fractions would be the deathknell for others; Still a little more needed.

Jeanimo: Won the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile at Hollywood in January, but only seventh in this last year and practically embarrassed by Obviously when the pair met; Passed over.

Animal Kingdom: Won 2011 Kentucky Derby in great style but so much gone wrong since (three bone fractures, while obviously unlucky not to have gone closer to Triple Crown); Won minor event in Febuary and question of his he retains all his ability; If so, can go close.

Excelebration: Beaten just the once when not facing Frankel, and that his 2yo debut; Looked to have been broken by Frankel when 11 lengths second in Queen Anne but bounced back with two top class wins in strong mile contests; Those cam on straight courses and were run a steady gallops, and things here very different; Still has big shout.

Wilcoxx Inn: Came from the clouds to come second to Wise Dan, the only time he’s lost going less than 10f in his last 5 such races; However still trashed in relative terms and hard to see him reversing that form enough to do so.

Suggestive Boy: Won 5 Grade 1’s in Argentina and second to Jeraninmo on US debut supplemented with minor stakes win; But that form not good enough as already stated.

Moonlight Cloud: Gone from strength to strength this year, landing second Maurice De Gheest in exceptional style at Deavuille (had previously all but beaten Black Caviar at Royal Ascot) before coming fourth in Jaques Le Marois; Never really put into the race when fourth there and showed that speed suits her more when getting better of Farhh in Prix Du Moulin; This likely to suit even more with such tight turns and short straight, and if firm ground doesn’t prove to be problem (seemed to be fine on firm ground in 1,000 Guineas when too eagerly ridden into strong pace/headwind) then has to be a big player.

VERDICT: One of the races of the meeting, which will determine the best turf miler in the world in a classic uro – American duel. Excelebration has only been beaten once when not facing Frankel (on his maiden) and will obviously take the beating here, but he enjoys a strong gallop and straight mile, so it’s yet to be seen just how going round an oval which can ride like 7f will suit him. In any case, Wise Dan is an exceptional rival who’s 4-5 on Turf and MOONLIGHT CLOUD was unlucky to get much closer in the Prix Du Moulin, and with the tighter track likely to suit her yet more, she’s the suggestion. In any case, 11/10 without the top two seems to be a very strong shout.