Sunday, 18 November 2012

Cheltenham Open Meeting 2012 - Racing Post Hurdle


There’s just under four months to go until the Cheltenham Festival and we get the first proper trial for the Champion Hurdle in the Greatwood Hurdle, run for the first year as the Racing Post Hurdle. This famous handicap has often produced a Champion Hurdle Contender. Since 2000, Westender has come second in a Supreme Novices and then next season’s Champion, Rooster Booster romped to Champion Victory, Accordion Etoile has was fourth in the next season’s Champion, Detroit City may have flopped as favourite but proved himself to be upto that class, Sizing Europe would surely have won but for going wrong, Khyber Kim was second to Binocular, Menorah won the International Hurdle and was fifth and even Brampour ran OK for a horse who was clearly out of his depth in the big one.

This year’s class act was meant to be Darlan, a fast finishing second in the Supeme Novices Hurdle last year and a really convincing winner at Aintree next time out, but the testing ground overnight has robbed us of his presence with trainer Nicky Henderson opting (perhaps wisely, much like with Sprinter Sacre) to save him for another day. Luckily he also has Cash And Go, (left) who won a Grade 1 last year in Ireland after two novice hurdle wins and had his season cut short after scoping badly in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle. What that form didn’t work out so well for Grade 1 standards, it was still a strong event by Irish standards and the fact that he’s won on soft and heavy is a great help when considering the ground (which should , and his poor scope has helped his mark drop a little from 144 to 141. With the switch to Henderson’s yard potentially unlocking more improvement, he makes plenty of appeal even at around 6/1, with Paddy Power's 11/2 making each/way appeal with a generous 5 places. 

With races such as these it often pays to have a second string to your bow and it’s notable that from a list of the last 10 winners, we can find that 9 of the last 10 winners were from racing a career high hurdles mark and horses rated 140 or higher have won 8 of the last 10 from just under 1/3rd of the total runners, making a shortlist from the 24 runners of Darlan, Prospect Wells, Rattan, Cash and Go and Bothy.

With Cash And Go already onside and Darlan potentially not running, or enjoying the ground, that leaves us with Rattan, Bothy and Prospect Wells, of which Paul Nicholls's charge is easily the most appealing, having drawn well clear of a good field when finding only Zarkandar too good. Admittedly he was getting a stone from his stablemate, but the rest of the Elite Hurdle field compromised of horses all rated at least 143 (not least the exciting Balder Succes) and he was upwards of seven lengths clear of them. Racing off the same mark but with Harry Derham taking 7lbs off in a bid to win this for the second year running, he makes obvious appeal today if he doesn’t find himself getting too stuck in the ground, which looked to have dried out a little during racing.

Advice

1 pt each/way Cash and Go (6/1 Blue Sq, 11/2 Paddy Power*)


1 pt each/way Prospect Wells (7/1 Blue Sq, 13/2 Paddy Power)

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