It’s been two years since Australia trashed France 59-16 in
one of the lowest points of Marc Livermont’s reign and while a similar result
seems to be out of the question the Wallabies can put a dampener in Phllippe
Saint Andre’s plans of gaining a top 4 spot in the world rankings in time for
the Pool seedings of the Rugby World Cup. France are just 0.06 points behind
England and will move into that spot with a win over Australia today, not
minding the fact that they have to play only Samoa and Argentina after that,
with England playing the three big Tri Nations soon afterwards. France are a
best of on to win against Australia today but there are several reasons to take
issue with that price.
Saint Andre’s side were many people’s favourites for the 6
Nations –including yours truly – but won just two games from against the whipping
boys Scotland and Italy, while failing to win at home against Ireland and
England. Admittedly they drew to Ireland with one of those being an awful
intercept try for Tommy Bowe) and could have beaten England had their Francois
Trinh Duc not made a fair hash of his last gasp drop goal attempt, but the lack
of application in the first halves of those encounters was particularly
worrying and the fact that only Wesley Fofana was able to score a try against
anyone but Italy or Scotland shows badly on their backline.
Fofana – who has been superb for Clermont this season – has
been pushed out to the wing to accommodate the revamped midfield of Firtz and
Mermoz which impressed so many when trashing Argentina and ending a 14 year
losing streak in South America in some style, showing just what the French are capable
of when given the chance. If Mercurial playmaker Frederic Michalak can bring
his Touloun form back to the fly half position then France should find themselves
more than capable of making opportunities, and Maxime Machenaud did impress in
partnership with him during the rout of Los Pumas. There’s no denying that
Theirry Dusatoir is a huge loss though despite the good club form of Yannick
Nyaanga and there’s an all too experimental feel about a side which has lost 5
of their last 6 against the Wallabies and just one of their last 5 in general. It’s
also worth remembering that Pumas they encountered was a much weakened side though – it had no
European talent and also had made 7 changes from the outfit that beat France
with a late try just a week previously.
Australia have been decimated by injury but are still able
to call upon all but three of the team that held the All Blacks to an 18-18
draw in the Bilesdoe Cup when last seen, with Kane Douglas and Sekope Kepu
coming in to start at lock and prop respectively in no way a negative, and Michel
Hooper having stepped into the gaping hole left by David Pocock in great style
over the Rugby Championship. Three hard fought, albeit lucky, wins over Wales earlier
in the season and a second place in the Rugby Championship are a testament to
the will of the Wallabies and while there are many reasons some can find to
take them on, recent form makes them far too big at nearly 2/1 – take the 5/2
with Hills that they win by 1-12 points.
Advice
1 pt Australia to win by 1-12 points (5/2 Hills)
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