The Vic Page: Australia v South Africa

A wonderful winter of test cricket is already well underway and Australia and South Africa’s tightly matched battle for the top spot in the test rankings is the headliner tonight. What a times had looked to be a first test destined for export soon turned into a pulsating encounter until Australia’s middle orders staged a massive fightback from 40-3 don to 565-5 declared, and had South Africa reeling badly on the ropes to the point where only a matter of time saw them fail to grind out a result (a day had been totally lost to rain earlier).

With Australia so much better than the side that lost the Ashes 3-1 to England – since then they’ve whitewashed India here, beaten the West Indies (2-0) and Sri Lanka (1-0) on tour – the momentum they gained at the end of the first test sees them as real contenders for the second test win in what was already an extremely evenly matched series, although there are some reasons to think that South Africa can improve from their showing in Brisbane.

It’s easy to forget that the rain interruption came when South Africa were cruising at 255-2, and also that the pace attack which would soon flounder so badly once had Australia at 40-3. The lack of a holding bowler (the JP Duminy inury), the loss of line and length as the day went on, and the insane amount of extra runs conceded and also the chances missed through no balls (They bowled 22 no-balls of which Kleinveldt sent down 11, Philander eight and Morkel two - both of which would have been wickets), are all things that they’ll have worked hard on in the interim, and with Imran Tahir not only in to take pressure away from the big 5, but to take adnvtage of a pitch which traditionally turns very sharply on days 4 and 5, and Faf Du Plessis’s inclusion in the field there to bring some extra stability, and a switch to short ball tactics to disrupt Australia’s middle order, and suddenly the No.1 team in the world make quite a lot of appeal to take the lead in this series. With this being such a results track – only two of the last 10 tests here have been draws – so laying the stalemate either now or after the end of the first innings might be a wise move, with South Africa’s long unbeaten run – they’ve not been beaten since 2006 outside their own country making the tourists a tempting enough proposition at 21/10, although the improvement shown by Australia is enough of a warning sign for the match odds to be left alone. Indeed, the best bet for the series might be the 1-1; South Africa are yet to win two Test matches in succession in almost three years and the third test is sure to be played

The management – none of which had any experience of playing cricket at the Gabba – was said to have badly misread the pitch (which had gotten greener throughought the week beforehand), fielding an all-pace attack with heavy dependence on a part-time spinner who was then injured, with the pitch utterly lifeless through days 3 and 4, where Clarke, Cowan and Hussey took a tiring and ineffective attack apart for 376 runs in just one day.

Despite the team having taken a break since, they should be much better prepared for this assignment with the Adelaide Oval’s pitch being much better known. Ever the batsman friendly pitch, the first innings average is 452 over the last 10 years with the 500 mark having been passed 4 times so far. With both Australia and South Africa’s batting attacks in prime form based on the first test (South Africa made 450, and Australia could well have gone to 600 with ease), and a target of 396 runs looks to be very reachable indeed for either side. Either side should be able to do it, so make whoever wins the toss/bats first to go past that market your first wager.

South Africa have Alvairo Pietersen, Jacques Kallis, AB De Villers, Graeme Smith and Hashim Amla as reliable sources of runs, South Africa easily have the batsmen to back up that play on the stats, with Amla’s performance points looking to be a solid back at 92 with Bet365, who give a point per run, and 10 points per catch (there is 25 points for a stumping and 25 for a wicket, but that doesn’t apply to batsmen). With 11 1^st innings fifties in his last 23 tests, Amla makes obvious appeal not only on this score but Ladbrokes’s batsman handicap.

For Australia, Michael Clarke – the leading run getter in tests this year – is the obvious man to look to, and 96 is more than surpassable for the top runscorer at the venue in the last five years with 689 runs, and someone who hit a triple century back in January and 259 back against India here no more than 11 months ago. He too, can take all the beating off scratch in the handicap.

Advice

10 pts Australia/South Africa* to score more than 396 1^st innings runs (5/6 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Hashim Amla +2 on 1^st Innings H’cap (7/1 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Michael Clarke (scratch) on 1^st Innings H'Cap (7/1 Ladbrokes)

2 pts Hashim Amla to score 92 or more performance points (5/6 Bet365)

1 pt Michael Clarke to score 96 or more performance points (5/6 Bet365)

*whichever bats first