Cheltenham Open Meeting 2012 - November Novices Chase

1.10 Cheltenham

Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices' Chase (Registered As The November Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £14,238

Advice: 3 pts Sire De Grugy to beat Third Intention (8/11 general)

Rebel Rebellion: Had his problems (choked on hurdling debut) but had always hasped as if fences would be his game when winning two novice hurdles and duly did the business as first time of asking when winning at Exeter; Should come on for that but untried on soft ground, shapes as if he would enjoy much further than this (winner over 2m5f) and has to carry penalty against some extremely useful rival; Stable’s record in this must be noted though.

Captain Conan: The living image of a horse made for fences, he served notice of his talent when landing Tolowerth Hurdle on British/Seasonal debut, being helped by runner up throwing race away; Poor in Ireland but underlined potential with pair of Grade 2 seconds at Kelso and Aintree (latter form strong) and should be much improved over fences, so exciting prospect.

Inoogoo: Useful hurdler (rated 106 when winning 2m handicap hurdle on soft surface at Kelso) who was going well when falling on his debut over fences; Creditable third at Aintree latest over 2m4f but this a massive step up in class

Sire De Grugy: Very useful over hurdles, winning Grade 2 as Novice and then being ever present in the top handicaps last season, fourth in the Betfair Hurdle and third in the Imperial Cup; Seriously impressive on chasing debut at Kempton when taking fences in his stirde and handles soft ground with aplomb, so high on the list for this.

Third Intention: Useful horse, for all that it can be difficult for him to show his talent when showing keenness also; Looked set to win after jumping very well on chase debut but reopposing His Excellency did him up the hill for stamina late on; Clearly useful, but this tougher still and can see same outcome once again.

His Excellency: Took his record to three from four over fences when nabbing Third Intention here over an extended course and distance contest last time despite looking to be awkward ride; Can do better still but this much harder.

VERDICT: All eyes will be on Captain Conan, who is the literal definition of a “chaser in waiting” and did well over hurdles last season, especially when winning the Toloworth (albeit being lucky to) on soft ground. The market says he should make a winning debut and it would be no surprise to see him win well, but he could be given a serious test by fellow soft ground lover SIRE DE GRUGY, who was excellent on his chasing debut at Kempton and is a useful horse in his own right based on his form in big handicap hurdles last year. With the course the only slight question mark, he can put it upto the favourite and is rated the main threat over Third Intention, His Excellency, and Rebel Rebellion, all of whom have question marks despite their obvious ability.