1.10 Cheltenham
Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices' Chase (Registered As
The November Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £14,238
Advice: 3 pts Sire De Grugy to beat Third Intention (8/11
general)
Rebel Rebellion: Had his problems (choked on hurdling debut)
but had always hasped as if fences would be his game when winning two novice
hurdles and duly did the business as first time of asking when winning at
Exeter; Should come on for that but untried on soft ground, shapes as if he
would enjoy much further than this (winner over 2m5f) and has to carry penalty
against some extremely useful rival; Stable’s record in this must be noted
though.
Captain Conan: The living image of a horse made for fences, he
served notice of his talent when landing Tolowerth Hurdle on British/Seasonal
debut, being helped by runner up throwing race away; Poor in Ireland but
underlined potential with pair of Grade 2 seconds at Kelso and Aintree (latter
form strong) and should be much improved over fences, so exciting prospect.
Inoogoo: Useful hurdler (rated 106 when winning 2m handicap
hurdle on soft surface at Kelso) who was going well when falling on his debut
over fences; Creditable third at Aintree latest over 2m4f but this a massive
step up in class
Sire De Grugy: Very useful over hurdles, winning Grade 2 as
Novice and then being ever present in the top handicaps last season, fourth in
the Betfair Hurdle and third in the Imperial Cup; Seriously impressive on
chasing debut at Kempton when taking fences in his stirde and handles soft
ground with aplomb, so high on the list for this.
Third Intention: Useful horse, for all that it can be
difficult for him to show his talent when showing keenness also; Looked set to
win after jumping very well on chase debut but reopposing His Excellency did him
up the hill for stamina late on; Clearly useful, but this tougher still and can
see same outcome once again.
His Excellency: Took his record to three from four over
fences when nabbing Third Intention here over an extended course and distance
contest last time despite looking to be awkward ride; Can do better still but
this much harder.
VERDICT: All eyes will be on Captain Conan, who is the
literal definition of a “chaser in waiting” and did well over hurdles last
season, especially when winning the Toloworth (albeit being lucky to) on soft ground.
The market says he should make a winning debut and it would be no surprise to
see him win well, but he could be given a serious test by fellow soft ground
lover SIRE DE GRUGY, who was excellent on his chasing debut at Kempton and is a
useful horse in his own right based on his form in big handicap hurdles last
year. With the course the only slight question mark, he can put it upto the
favourite and is rated the main threat over Third Intention, His Excellency,
and Rebel Rebellion, all of whom have question marks despite their obvious ability.
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