Saturday, 3 November 2012

Breeders' Cup 2012 - Juvenile Turf


6.50 Santa Anita
Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) (2yo Colts & Geldings) (Turf) (2yo) Winner £348,387
Advice: 10 pts Europe to win first race in Juvenile Turf (4/6 Ladbrokes), 1 pt win Dundonell (4/1 Stan James, Ladbrokes), 1 pt win Fantastic Moon (10/1 general)

Owner detailsSummit County: Only get beginning to get going properly before taking serious bump when beaten nearly six lengths behind Balance The Books last time; Needs much more though.

Owner detailsArtigiano: Coventry fifth who has since gotten even closer to Olympic Glory on two occasions, firstly when fourth in Superlative on July Course and then when second in the Vintage (on 3lbs better terms); Clear second to Steeler in the Royal Lodge and should enjoy this mile on fast ground, so has to be taken seriously here.

Owner detailsGeorge Vancouver: Showed all his best form in good ground, following easy maiden win with good second in Prix Morny, although bitterly disappointing when no obvious excuse in Curragh Group 3; Bounced back to form with Dewhurst third when not enjoying the slowish ground there and could have been ridden far better that day as well; Big chance for trainer that enjoys this race.

Owner detailsGerviniho: Won California bred restricted 5f Polytrack maiden before then winning Zuma Beach Stakes over this course and distance, although only had three rivals to beat and faces steep step up in class here.

Owner detailsFantastic Moon: Showed his scope for improvement when beating four previous winners in novice event on July course and telling late turn of foot when winning Sandown’s Solario Stakes marked him out as an extremely promising colt for the future; Only fifth in Royal Lodge Stakes but found a lot of trouble and much better than that; Worry that horse such as him will take a good while to get going but perfectly drawn from 5 to be upfront and tracking what could be a slow pace

Owner detailsDundonnell: Third in July Course maiden on debut before smashing Lingfield maiden on AW (broke the track record which had been long standing) and confirmed merit of that when landing Acomb Stakes at York, idling a little late on but always doing enough and moving really well late on to beat Steeler (who himself has since won Royal Lodge Stakes, beating Atrigano and Fantastic Moon); No shame in losing out to Toronado in slowly run Champagne Stakes latest and should take the beating here.

Brown Almighty: got carried out wide and was then forced to steady himself before a strong late burst took him into third behind Balance The Books last time out; Was getting 4lbs from winner on that occasion, so needs more here in this field anyway; Might reverse that form but this a level up.

Owner detailsBalance The Books: Closed from deep to win With Anticipation and Bourbon Stakes on last two starts, overcoming trouble on both occasions and winning despite edging left under pressure; This a stronger race but if there’s a pace burn on upfront then he has to come into the reckoning.

Owner detailsNoble Tune: Looked to be the best domestic turf 2 year old when romping his maiden and then the Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont, coasting home in the latter; Closely matched with Balance The Books on a line through second but nice prospect all the same and one to consider anyway.

Owner detailsJoha: Only top level winner in this field, having taking Breeders’ Futurity from the front on the Polytrack, gamely holding the late challenge of Dynamic Sky; 4lbs better off with Balance The Books for a head beating so has to be taken seriously here on bare form, for all that it’s a big worry that he’s wide in stall 10 and would want his own way on the lead.

Owner detailsDry Summer: Beat Grade 1 winner Power Broker and gave him 2lbs, that after taking minor stakes at Del Mar; Trashed by 21 lengths on the dirt latest but still has a bit to do.

Owner detailsI’mboundtoscore: Beat Joha first time out but that over just 4 & ½ furlongs; Since done well for himself in any case, belying large price to win Woodbine Grade 2 on yielding surface latest; Won’t be allowed such a soft lead

Owner detailsKnow More: Smart juvenile, with couple of Grade 1 seconds to his name including Front Runner Stakes behind Power Broker and Del Mar Futurity when giving 4lbs to the runner up; May not be at home on turf though, and drawn 13 of 14; Others just preferred.

Owner detailsLines Of Battle: Very impressive on debut in way his dismissed subsequent group winner Leitir Mor at Curragh and never put into the race when sixth in very strong Coventry (Artigiano behind); Little disappointing when beaten in Tyros Stakes but latest Listed win was very impressive and it’s a sure thing that he’ll come on significantly for that; Would be much more appealing if it wasn’t for his horror draw but worth backing in running should he get a good footing.

VERDICT: A strong renewal with more than a couple of horses who could genuinely make into classic winners next season. The 4/6 that Ladbrokes essentially offer about a European winner in their ‘First European winner of the night market') looks to be one of the locks of the meeting considering that Europe have won three of the five renewals, including the 2 here and with second in the opening renewal. This gives us the first three in the market, while also adding the interesting charges of Fantastic Moon and Lines Of Battle, both of whom are better than they’ve been able to show so far in their career. Individually, the value might lie with FANTASTIC MOON, who never got a run when fifth in the Royal Lodge, for all that the very sharp course here might not suit him as much as he’d want, and DUNDONELL, used to a slow pace from his top class racing in England should take the beating of the raiders. 

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