Cheltenham Open Meeting 2012 - Paddy Power

2.35 Cheltenham

Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £91,120

Advice: 1 pt each/way Walkon (8/1 Bet365*, Stan James, 7/1 general), 1 pt each/way Michael Flips (20/1 Bet365* general)

Poquelin: Made his name in these handicaps for last two years, winning December Gold Cup two years ago and following up in smaller field event here in summer; Return over 3m at Ascot encouraging considering that he often comes on a lot for his first run of the year but looks a bit too exposed now.

Al Ferof: 2011 Supreme Novice Hurdle winner who promised huge amounts as chaser last year after two graded wins from first two novice starts and respectable third in Victor Chandler Novice Chase; Disappointed badly on two occasions since, having stuffing knocked out of him when hitting fourth last extremely hard in Arkle chase and then ending up well beaten fourth, and also when well behind Menorah at Aintree; If back to best, sure to go well and make bold bid but lot on trust here.

Calgary Bay: Could do no better than eighth in this last year but did win valuable handicap chases on two occasions last term, landing New Year’s Day Chase and Sky Bet Chase with aplomb before not quite being suited by Grand National; Get the feeling he will peak at that time once again for new trainer in Mick Channon.

Hunt Ball: The story of last year’s jumps season, having risen 88lbs in the handicap with six win, including a remarkable eight length win in the Novices Handicap Chase at the Festival and then a third in the Betfred Bowl at Aintree; That effort marks him down as well worthy of mark of 157 (especially considering it came at the end of a long hard season) and has to be respected here.

Grands Crus: Brilliant over hurdles when second to Big Bucks on two occasions and made rapid progress through the novice chasing ranks last year, winning three of his four starts impressively, especially when thrashing Silvinaico Conti and eventual RSA Chase winner Bobs Worth in the Feltham at Kempton; Only fourth in RSA but scoped badly afterwards (clearly not the true form) and should really enjoy this C&D which he was so impressive over last year; One to beat for yard who have dominated this race.

Quantitiveeasing: Second in this last year and then improved to take the December Gold Cup; Disappointing twice since for all that 3m on heavy ground no use to him and not sure that he’s going to be ripe for this first time out.

Aerial: Fourth in this last year and used it as springboard for a successful season, landing valuable chase at Newbury and over this C&D after the turn of the year; Neat, useful jumper who has strong attitude in finish but this a stiff new mark for his return this season.

Forpadydeplasterer: Has no wins since 2009 Arkle but hard to find a more consistent chaser around and still has plenty to offer in graded chasers on last season’s form; Two runs this season to sharpen himself up so far mean he’ll be ready to run a big race and not to be discounted for all some might feel that he’s on the downgrade.

Nadiya De La Vega: Only had 8 chase runs since coming from France but her four wins mark her down as a very useful horse and can’t fail to be impressed with how she drew away from very useful filed on seasonal debut; Has always been best first time out and sometimes failed to back it up, although heavy ground of no use to her at Chepstow on her second start of last season; Worry is that she won’t be upto 8lbs higher mark but on the list anyway.

Micheal Flips: Useful novice chaser last year and really progressed from debut second at Chepstow, winning handicap at Taunton off mark of 137 and then coming second to For Non Stop in 2m4fGrade 1 at Newbury and then fourth in strong looking Jewson Novices Chas; Only fifth at Ascot on his comeback but 2m might have been sharp for him in hindsight off topweight; Should make a bold bid today.

Walkon: Very disappointing last season over fences considering how impressive his comeback run was, but he did have excuses for some of the latter failures and is a well handicapped horse on the basis of 10lbs lower handicap rating than in February this year; School of thought that he’s best first time out (form figures of 121 on seasonal debuts) lend to his case and will get few better chances for a big prize; Has to be near the top of the shortlist.

The Disengager: Won four races so far since moving to front running tactics this year, unlucky for that not to be 5 having slipped at Stratford earlier back in the summer; This a whole different kettle of fish though and likely to be outclassed today.

Divers: Won Novices Handicap at the Festival two years ago and third in this from off the pace last year; Failed to build on that although he was third at the festival in 2m5f handicap chase; Beaten twice since but is now 5lbs lower in weights than for that effort and a full 6lbs lower than when third in this last year; Handicapped to go well.

Triolo D’Alene: Made a very taking British debut at Ascot just before Christmas last year and was fancied for the Novices Handicap at the Festival after that but things didn’t quite work out for him then; Well beaten second on return at Market Rasen in May and while it could be notable that Barry Geragthy gets down to lowest weight to ride him, he needs to find more.

Kingsmere: Useful handicapper over hurdles (wide margin winner over 3m off 109) but cealry even better chaser, winning twice by wide margins and then coming down when set to take big hand even under penalty in novice chase here behind Carlito Brigante; Very useful mark on that evidence for today for all that he’s made crucial late mistakes on three occasions so far, which really do temper enthusiasm.

Casey Top: Very impressive when easily beating Tranquil Sea at Killarney in May and then when a game second in the Galway Chase, but those different tasks to what would be required to lead this field today; Others preffered.

Fingeronthepluse: Doesn’t show his best at all times nowadays but still shows hints of the talent that saw him win a Galway Plate and Festival handicap chase, not least when 50/1, still going well, and coming down 4 out in December Gold Cup nearly a year ago and ran a good race when third behind Nadiya De La Vega last time out; 6lbs better off for 6 length beating, and seen worse complete outsiders.

Questions Answered: Placed in the Kerry and Munster Nationals but that on soft/heavy ground and now 7lbs out of the handicap today; Others make more appeal.

Gilbarry: Hopelessly out of form for long time.

VERDICT: One of the finest renewals of recent times with any number of up and coming chasers, given a class edge by potentially top class second season chasers Grands Crus, Al Ferof and Hunt Ball, all of whom have to be given massive chances on their best form despite the fact that the last eight winners of this race have been rated below 150 (all of them are at least 157) along with the fact that just 17 horses have won off that mark in a handicap of any value since 200. Many have likened Grands Crus to Long Run – himself beaten in this a couple of years ago before winning the King George and Gold Cup in exceptional manner – and while Grands Crus seems to be blessed with more natural speed than Long Run (and better jumping some would say), defeat today would do his long term prospects no harm at all in such a competitive renewal. People’s horse Hunt Ball would be a wonderful winner and either of his efforts from the backend of last season would see him taking all the beating, and if one can forgive Al Ferof two poor performances at the backend of last season then he’d have to take the beating, but they might be horses for the future after today and it would be unwise to castigate either for defeat today. With the weights so top heavy thanks to the added presence of Poquelin as well at the top of the handicap, it might pay to look for those who have been handicapped just for the day and WALKON, who has first time out figures of 121, now seems best at this trip, and is 10lbs lower than for his one novice chase win last year. If at his best, he has considerable potential to be better than his mark. MICHEAL FLIPS doesn’t quite have the form of those at the top of the market, but his efforts in 2m4f chases last year read as well as any and his return at Ascot under topweight over an inadequate 2 miles was a good tuneup for this all things considered, so at 16/1 he merits a small interest. 


*Following heavy support for Grands Crus, Walkon's price has drifted to 8/1 with Bet365 who will pat 1/4 the odds 5 places, which has to be taken in this kind of event