Saturday, 3 November 2012

Breeders´ Cup 2012 - Filly & Mare Sprint


7.35 Santa Anita
Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Dirt) (3yo+) Winner £348,387
Advice: 3 pts win Groupie Doll (11/10 general), 1 pt win Turbulent Descent (7/1 general)

Owner detailsTeddy’s Promise: Won Grade 1 La Brea Stakes here last December but that form below what’s needed today (95 Beyer also miles behind the field leading 112) and been unplaced on all but one occasions since; Best to look elsewhere.

Owner detailsBelle Of The Hall: Posted 95 Beyer when narrow winner on the slop at Belmont latest but that in minor company and not good enough to take advntage of total pace meltdown.

Owner detailsDust And Diamonds: One of the most progressive horses in the field, as shown when rounding off hat – trick to draw right away in the Gallant Bloom handicap, with Turbulent Descent and Musical Romance well behind; Entitled to major respect now progressing, but now significantly worse off with that pair; Interesting.

Owner detailsStrike The Moon: No match for Groupie Doll recently and 0-7 in Graded company; Impossible to see her playing a part here.

Owner detailsRumour: Not run in Grade 1 company since finishing sixth as the 2/1 favourite for the C&D Santa Monica Stakes in January; Concern about her lasting home.

Owner detailsTurbulent Descent: Sent off a very strong favourite for this last year after Test Stakes win but never had any chance after being squeezed, lit up and then sent four wide when hitting the front too early; Only shown best form once since but that Grade 1 win a good one and while she was turned over latest, weight might have told’ Expect her to get closer to Musical Romance and Dust And Diamonds now she’s been rested six weeks; Interesting.

Owner detailsGreat Hot: Well held behind Rumor latest and line through that one suggest that she’s plainly not good enough here, as does her well beaten effort in this last year.

Musical Romance: Won this last year after race fell apart a bit and runner up was given poor ride when taking the outside stretch (she has speed favouring rail); Twice beaten over 7 lengths by Groupie Doll this year but has won Grade 1 handicap at Calder in July and Gallant Boom effort can’t be knocked too much (gave 8lbs to Dust And Diamonds); Wants a pace burnup but respected anyway.

Owner detailsGroupie Doll: Success story of the season since blinkers were added, winning three poly races and one Dirt posting a 112 Beyer when winning the Humana Distaff in May, thrashing last year’s winner in spectacular style; The one to bat in no uncertain terms and looks a class above; Has to be feared.

Owner detailsSwitch: Second in this for the last two years, both times having let the winner get first run on her and being forced very wide behind Musical Romance last year; Not been in the same form since but last two efforts over 9 furlongs and last time she ran over 7f it resulted in an easy win; Not out of this if the leaders really overdo it.

VERDICT: No favourite has ever won this but it’ll be tremendous shock if GROUPIE DOLL can’t end that run. Her form since wearing blinkers has been incredible and she’s beaten last year’s 1-2 of Musical Romance and Switch by more than 5 lengths this year, with neither having an obvious excuse. Both offer value for place seekers today, although their chances are very much depend on an early pace burnup. TURBULENT DESCENT was favourite last year and looked to be coming with a big chance when hitting the lead, but being squeezed and forced to go four wide too its toll. With a smoother run, she’s expected to come out second best and reverse recent form with Dust And Diamonds.

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