Wales’s year started on a high point but they may be faced
with the nightmare situation of a third tier seeding for the Rugby World Cup in
just under three years’ time with defeat against Australia at the Millenium
Stadium today. Warren Gatland’s side went head to head with the Wallabies down
under back in June and were by far the best of the 6 Nations to tour the
Southern Hemisphere but haven’t won any of their last 6 tests and have an air
of vulnerability about them despite their resurgent second half performance
against New Zealand.
A score of 33-10 to the All Blacks is harsh on Wales – they
gave up several points on offer in the first half and drew the second period
10-10 – especially considering they lost the turnover count 21-10. A similar performance
will push Australia very close but turning a good performance into victory will
not be so easy. Props Gethin Jenkins and Scott Andrews, lock Ian Evans and
flanker Aaron Shingler. Have all been brought into an injury hit squad which
already looked thin (Uncapped Scarlets prop Samson Lee will be included on the
bench) and Australia, for all their struggles against Italy and France this year,
are bringing their strongest side of this tour to the Millenium Stadium – 9 of
the side that proved good enough to beat England will start for Robbie Deans
today.
While the Wallabies have had a poor year, it’s worth remembering
that injuries have decimated their side (to call this a second string XV would
be no insult) but they can still pull a performance out of the fire when called
upon; They held New Zealand to a draw in Hong Kong (the only side not have lost
to them this year), pummelled Argentina in Rosario and turned over the much
fancied English at Twickenham.
Wales too should be well up for this – they tend to respond
to defeats with better performances in the main – but they may have been
flattered by the All Blacks easing up heavily last week when well ahead in the
second half and will need to be at their best to beat Australia despite a poor
performance in Italy last week. In what should be a nailbiting game, the
visitors to win by 1-5 (four of the last eight have gone this way including two
of the three tests down under) and 1-12 winning margins make most appeal, with
1-5 getting the call on the value grounds and the fact that Australia barely
had anything in hand of Italy and England in the second half. The best value in
the game might well be Nick Cummins (pictured) to score the first try, as he has done
twice in two weeks here, playing against a Wales side that has let in the first
try on all three of their autumn internationals so far. Bet 365 will go 9/1
that he scores and lay ¼ of the odds for place purposes, while Paddy Power
offer 11/1 with just one place less; Either looks good value.
Advice
1 pt Australia to win by 1-5 points (5/1 Betfred)
1 pt each/way Nick Cummins 1st Tryscorer (9/1
Bet365*, 11/1 Paddy Power)
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