Hennessy Gold Cup Chase 2012

3.10 Newbury

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £85,425

Advice: 1 pt win The Package (10/1 general), 1 pt win Hold On Julio (9/1 general)*

Tidal Bay: As quirky as any horse in racing but top class when he consents, as he showed when romping away with Bet365 Gold Cup (3m5f, soft, but ground not an issue) off top weight (154) on last start of last season an good sign when winning Grade 2 hurdle easily on reappearance; This mark a big one to lump but an go well and will take the beating if in the mood.

Roberto Goldback: High class veteran who was as good as he’s ever ben on debut for Nicky Henderson when romping away with valuable Ascot handicap on reappearance (beat Duke Of Lucca and Alfie Spinner with ease, and now 12lbs worse off); Needs respecting under Jerry McGrath although this a much tougher task.

Bobs Worth: Top class as both novice hurdler/chaser, gaining second Cheltenham Festival win in two tries (1111 at that course) when battling to get the better of First Lieutenant (here too, and 2lbs better off) in RSA Chase at the end of eventful season (testament to his ability that he won); Second seasons Worries that he wouldn’t turn up at beginning of the of the week but ground improved markedly and if dry night quickens ground he has to be at the top of the list.

First Lieutenant: Relatively poor first season chasing but improved hand over fist for good ground and three miles when second to Bobs Worth in RSA; Weighted to come even closer today (2lbs) although the extra distance might not suit; Is still one fo the best in this race however and his second in Down Royal Grade 1 is very encouraging for one who has always shown his best form later in the season; Respected.

Hold On Juilio: Very steady progress over fences on all but one occasion (failed to fire at Cheltenham Festival), winning 3 out of 5 chasing starts but impressing deeply two starts ago when ready winner of valuable handicap chase at Sandown (form worked out really well); Promising comeback when staying on third at Cheltenham on reappearance and while he’s 4lbs higher in better race, the main worry is his jumping; Goes close with clear round.

Lion Na Bearnai: Sprung shock when winning Grade 2 novice chase and then the Irish Grand National (3m5f) on final two starts last season; Poor first time out record (8060) and hiked in the handicap since, so others make more appeal than one who would want things not to happen too quickly.

Carruthers: Massive chance based on his win in this last year, and he now is only 1lbs higher; Not shown any of that form since (understandably) but this is first time he’s had his ground for a good while and ground improving is a good sign; Might go well but needs to consent.

The Package: Been extremely progressive ever since tackling fences and reached high level of form in handicaps, coming second and fourth in two renewals of 3m handicap chase at Cheltenham Festival, latter after a long layoff; As good as ever when romping home in Bager Ales Trophy at Wincanton and while up 8lbs in better race, runner up highly regarded and rest nowhere (he also had much more to give); Right up there on the list.

Teaforthree: Stout staying chaser who was last man standing to win 4m NH Chase at the Festival in quite impressive style; Return over 3m3f promising enough considering his target looks likely to be the Grand National and would have been of interest on soft ground but needs a ridiculous pace to get involved her and only small place shout.

Fruity O’Rooney:  Would have to be given a major shout based on his handicap chase form of last season, most notably his Cheltenham Festival handicap second; Ignore hurdles comeback, has cheekpieces on, ground come right for him and very interesting of the major outsiders.

Saint Are: Able to outbattle talented but enigmatic Battle Group at Aintree for valuable handicap win on National Day (pair clear); 8lbs up in better race and not sure this ground will suit so much, so others preferred.

Duke Of Lucca: Shaky first season over fences but got hang of things regards jumping when drawing right away to beat three other rivals at Bangor and Cheltenham; Second in Roberto Goldback’s race and 12lbs better off, but not sure that enough to turn around form or win; Stamina also a potential issue for him.

Diamond Harry: Thrown in on his 2010 winning form of this, and now 13lbs lower; Excuses can be made for his failures (have gone on too strong when fourth in Betfair Chase and it’s now clear he doesn’t like Cheltenham) but does seem to have fallen out of love with the game and could only be backed in running if showing zest early on.

Magnaminity: Top class at his best (RSA Chase fourth just a couple of seasons back) and Grade 2 winner in that season too; Don’t think stamina an issue and mark has dropped significantly but wants the ground much softer than this.

Harry The Viking: Highly progressive as a novice last season (second to Teaforthreee in NH Chase at Cheltenham) and still going well enough until blundering his chances away on return at Cheltenham latest.

Ikorudu Road: Interesting that the cheekpieces he had on for his wins in the Grimthorpe and similarly valuable handicap over C&D; Disappointing in Scottish National but hurdles return is encouraging; Does seem weighted to best on that evidence.

Frisco Depot: In process of running a big race when falling at Ascot last month behind Roberto Goldback, and earlier for form Dessie Hughes makes this mark (plus Sam Waley-Cohen’s 5lbs mark) look very generous; Some have raised stamina concerns but should stay fine and fairly lightly weighted here, so of interest.

Soll: Hugely promising chaser for Willie Mullins who must have masses more to give (only run 6 time in his life); Looked good when winning at Down Royal last season (fell to early to judge how well he was doing at Festival) and while his mark could be a snip and he would be shorter from bigger stable, this an uber stiff assignment for one so inexperienced.

Alfie Spinner: Just the one win last season but did it well at Chepstow and Ascot there behind Invictus and RSA Chase winner Bobs Worth looks good now but only fifth in NH Chase and needs to find improvement from somewhere.

VERDICT: Three dry days have changed the complexion of the ground at Newbury, having changed the ground from heavy to soft, and it may well get quicker before racing, which would put the emphasis on class once again. The dry days should be of a great help to favourite and RSA Chase winner Bobs Worth, who will love the extra two furlongs and is the class act here, while he remains unexposed having had the just the four runs over fences. There’s a slight worry he won’t be at concern pitch for this, but the ground would be a bigger one and if he’s to be taking a hand in the Gold Cup he should be going close to emulating Trabolgan and Denman, and at 5/1 there looks to be few flaws with him and he's the class act. First Lieutant looks too big at 10/1 given how he’s 2lbs better off here with Bobs Worth, but I’m not sure he wants a trip and it might pay to stick with the experienced handicappers for now, in HOLD ON JULIO and THE PACKAGE, both of whom have extremely strong claims on their recent performances, should enjoy the accent on stamina given here and who will have no problems going the pace of a strongly run Hennessy; Others to consider are Frisco Depot, Tidal Bay and Fruity O’Rooney. 


UPDATE: After a dry night, the ground looks right for second season class acts BOBS WORTH and FIRST LIEUTENANT, who are well worth supporting at their current prices, with 20/1 for Bobs Worth to do a 'Denman' (win this and the Gold Cup) well worth a small tinkle.

Advice: 1 pt win Bobs Worth (5/1 general), 1 pt win First Lieutenant (10/1 general), 1 pt Bobs Worth to win today and Gold Cup (20/1 Hills)


*Paddy Power and Bet365 are going 5 places 1/4 the odds
** Do check the ground conditions tomorrow for Bobs Worth and First Lieutenant

Australia v South Africa - 3rd Test Preview

Before even starting with tomorrow’s crunch encounter between Australia and South Africa to decide the top spot in test cricket, it’s time to pay tribute to one of the all-time great sportspeople. Ricky Ponting announced his retirement earlier today, on the eve of what will be his final test. There are many moments to remember Ponting by, but my favourite will always be the 257 he scored against India in that series between the two at the peak of their powers, which was Ponting all over. Brutal, relentless, unforgiving cricket over several days against the best the world had to offer.

The only player to score a century in both innings of a test match (one of sport’s great achievements, let alone cricket) there are many reasons to remember Ponting (good or bad, some might say). But at the end of the day, he is the second highest runscorer in the history of the game, has the most test victories of any captain, most runs by an Australian, most centuries by an Australian, and most consecutive test victories by a captain. He will go down a legend.

Ricky Ponting retires a true legend of the game, and of modern sport 

And it’s fitting he should go down in such a series; One which has been blood sweat and tears from the first ball with all to play for down to the last moment. The score may be 0-0 but the tests have been anything but, and only an epic rearguard reaction on two occasions have presented Australia from taking the No.1 spot already; The rain having come to their assistance in Brisbane and Faf Du Plessis/Jacques Kallis (a player who’s in the rank of aged greats such as Ponting) having put in an epic rearguard in Adelaide.

This test is the real decider for not only the series but the No.1 ranking, and as if that wasn’t reason enough to get up at 3AM, only two of the last 18 tests here have been drawn and both teams have an exceptional record here - Australia have won their last three test matches at this venue comprising of an innings plus hiding of India in January, a 267 run win over England in 2010 and a 35 run win over West Indies in 2009, while the Proteas  won by six wickets here in 2008 and the teams drew here on the Proteas tour in 2005 which was the last test match draw seen on this ground.

Australia have had by far the best of the two tests so far and would have to make more appeal on a betting basis, for all that South Africa have kept them out on two occasions so far and will face an attack devoid of Peter Siddle and Ben Hilfenaus (with 14 wickets between them), the principal pair who took them so close to victory in Adelaide (understandable after just 3 days rest from bowling 33 and 34 overs respectively). That said, the worries over Jacques Kallis fitness are just as big for South Africa, for whom he battled his way agonizingly to scores of 58 and 46 while taking 19-2 in the 1^st innings. His bowling is already lost; The middle order without his bating would look frightfully weak on the evidence of the past two weeks.

With such notable bowling absences and a batter’s pitch in general, the betting value might be with the batsmen. Largely thanks to Michael Clarke, Australia’s two 1^st innings totals have been 565 and 550, while in the last year only once have they failed to pass 311 in their first innings, so a mark of 326 is more than reasonable for their first innings score with Ladbrokes and looks to be well worth backing. Michael Clarke’s remarkable year – 1,309 runs in just 13 innings – just seems to keep going and he already has two double centuries in three innings, so 7/1 on Ladbrokes’s batsman handicap just looks too good to pass up once again.

With a century on his last visit and a century in Adelaide, Graeme Smith +5 is tempting but that was his only big score on tour and others make more appeal. Another market to consider would be the top Australia bowler, which should come down to Mitchell Starc (5 wickets so far, but that’s the second most of any Aussie bowler playing today barring Lyon) and Mitchell Johnson, who has 30 wickets in four Tests. Better value might be Australia for the 1^st innings lead (they’ve outscored South Africa in every innings so far) or even better, the 101-200 runs lead at 4/1 with Paddy Power, which has come in twice so far in the two tests.

Advice

6 pts Australia to score 326 or more 1st innings runs (5/6 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Australia to have 1st innings lead of 101-200 runs (4/1 Paddy Power)

1 pt Michael Clarke on 1^st Innings Batsman Handicap (7/1 Ladbrokes)

Newbury Hennessy Meeting 2012 - Worcester Novices' Chase

2.05 Newbury

GPG Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (Registered As The Worcester Novices' Chase) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £13,668

Advice: 1 pt win Hadrian’s Approach (5/1 general)

Beneficent: Former point winner  who sprung 50/1 shock in Deloitte Novice Hurdle last year (exposed since); Won at Down Royal on second attempt at chasing in good style and could have more still to give, but probably not as good as his mark suggests.

Hadrian’s Approach: Won all three completed starts, including 2m3f beginners chase at Ascot on reappearance where he didn’t impress with jumping at all but showed great resolve to grab it on the line; Sure to be better for that today and always shaped like he wanted 3m, so highly respected here.

Highland Lodge: Disappointed in Grade 2 at Warwick after two impressive hurdles wins (one heavy, one good to soft) but back on the right track with impressive chancing debut at Towcester and should take the beating today.

Houblon Des Obeaux: Solid if unspectacular hurdler (won off 135 at Cheltenham last year, fourth and sixth at Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals) but already at least as good a chaser, winning well at Worcester and then romping away with Wincanton Grade 2, even if runner up took too long to get going (winner of strong event over 3m at Haydock since) and third had been off absence of more than a year); Should go close.

Harry Topper: Very good hurdler (two wins and second in Grade 2 at Haydock) and game winner over 3m at Exeter on chasing debut when rallying hard to beat Rocky Creek; Should go well here.

Makethemostofnow: Shade fortunate to win on chasing debut (runner-up lost all momentum by ploughing through the last fence) and all four wins at Ffos Las; Unexposed but needs far more here.

VERDICT: Hobloun Des Obeaux is a worthy and strong favourite following his Grade 2 win at Wincaton, but it might pay to take a chance on the potential of HADRIAN’S APPROACH stepped upto three miles. Nicky Henderson’s runner needed every last yard to win at Ascot on his seasonal/chasing debut and with that under his belt, he should be a different proposition here. Harry Topper, Highland Lodge and Beneficent are all respected too. 

Premiership - 28th November 2012

West Brom are the third best side in England, a manager who won the Champions League and FA Cup being sacked in 6 months, yet more racial controversy and UEFA considering a 64 team ‘Champions League’….. Long story short, a lot’s happened since we last covered Premiership Football.

Leaving no time to get back into the thick of things, the first bet today is Norwich at Southampton. The Saints – often unflattered by their results due to some horrendous defending – have been resurgent in the last few weeks and have lost just one of their last 6 games at St Mary’s, but Norwich have now gone seven games unbeaten, a run which includes victories over Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United (albeit at Carrow Road) and at 16/5 they’re impossible to ignore in a game which should arguably be 5/6 each of two based on recent form. As insurance, the 5/6 on them avoiding defeat looks to be a smart play.

Next up, in the biggest game of the night on a headline basis, back Tottenham to get their push for the Top 4 going strongly again with a fifth straight home win over Liverpool. Spurs are 5 points off fourth place but were unlucky to go down to City and lost all chance against Arsenal when Adebayor made a senseless challenge on the halfway line. A 3-1 win against West Ham at home was archived in deeply impressive style and the home win makes a lot of appeal at 6/4.

And last but not least, back Stoke to put Newcastle in the Doldrums once again with yet another home victory. Newcastle are struggling to cope with the Europa and Premier League, while a long injury list made them look toothless on Saturday at Southampton. Stoke have let only Manchester City score past them this season and a home win to nil looks to be a strong bet.

Advice

1 pt Norwich (3/1 general)

2 pts Norwich +1 (5/6 general)

1 pt Tottenham (6/4 general)

1 Stoke to beat Newcastle to nil at 12/5 (General)

QBE Autumn Internationals 2012 - Wales v New Zealand

Wales look to be a shadow of the side that was so impressive in the 6 Nations and meet New Zealand at just about the worst possible time today with Warren Gatland’s side desperate to improve a reputation that has been battered by two defeats to Argentina and Samoa in the space of two week. It was a far cry from the side that had towered above all their European opponents and gone down by the smallest of margins to Australia three times during the summer and there seems to be no cure on the basis of the drop in performance between the first two weeks.

Meanwhile Steve Hansen’s side have kicked on from their World Cup success and are now the unchallenged No.1 side in the world both on rankings and merit, having last been beaten by Australia in the Tri Nations a year ago. Near unbeatable at the breakdown, superb with ball in hand and resolute in defence when it really counts, they look to be a class above and the only hope for Wales would be an improved performance on basis of national pride following two humiliations so far.  

Dutching the 11-20 and 21-30 point winning margins would have paid on out three of the last 4 All Blacks visits to Wales and looks to be the best value again, while over 32.5 points is a more then achievable mark given that both Samoa and Argentina scored 26 points in their encounters.

Advice

1 pt New Zealand to win by 11-20 points (15/8 Bet365)

1 pt New Zealand to win by 21-30 points (3/1 Bet365)

2 pts New Zealand to score 33 points or more (5/6 general) 

QBE Autumn Internationals - England v South Africa

The knives were out for England following their disappointment against Australia last week but today’s encounter against South Africa might offer them more chance for redemption than either the stats or the general opinion might suggest.

Pessimists will point out that you have to go back to November 2010 for England’s last victory against one of the Wallabies, South Africa or New Zealand, and that South Africa – with 9 wins in 10 against England - have only lost one game against a team outside of the top three in the world rankings (against Scotland in November 2010) but this is by no means a Springbok vintage and this should be comfortably their biggest test of the three fixtures they’ve had so far on tour and both Ireland and Scotland showed more than enough to suggest that England aren’t without a chance of ending their tri-nations hoodoo.

An Ireland side shorn of 6 first choice players had the Springboks on the ropes for the whole first half before a sustained fightback saw them sneak home by just the four points, and a 21-3 lead – 7 of those points gifted by Mike Blair’s awful throw – turned into a very nervous last 30 minutes at Murrayfield last week. South Africa’s brutal defence saw them home on that occasion but it was a good deal closer than scoreline suggested and there’s no denying that England are a step up on both of those teams.

Dominated in the scrum and upfront, and too often failing in the opposition 22, Stuart Lancaster’s side were castigated for what was a below par performance last week but it’s worth remembering that they did give up 9 kickable points before we even get to the result and they made plenty of decent chances. Had Thomas Waldrom not dropped the ball over the line midway through the second half after a catch and drive at the lineout, we could easily be talking about a side in the top 4 of the world rankings right now. It’s also worth remembering that in midsummer the aggregate score between the two was 72-60, with the last test being a 14-14 draw and one of the tests being at altitude.

The power of the England pack is still a worry following last week but measures have been taken to make sure that won’t happen again. With Loosehead prop Alex Corbisiero, blindside flanker Tom Wood and No8 Ben Morgan all coming into the side to offer the ball carrying power needed to beat the Springboks, while Mike Brown is employed as the second fullback to deal with the boots of Pat Lambie and Ruan Pienaar.

South Africa name an unchanged XV which does boast some talent – Eden Ezetbeth was magnificent against Scotland, Willem Alberts and Adrian Strauss (pictured) have had a great season – but it’s not an unbeatable one if England can get field position – they had plenty last week at times – or enough wide ball to threaten the Springbok defence. Considering the progress that England have made over the last year and the performances that South Africa have twice offered it’s tempting to go for the home win once again, but a horrendous forecast tempers enthusiasm for that and it might be best to go for under 3 tries – the Springboks have scored just 3 in their two games and there were only two between England (who are likely to take the points if offered them this time) and Australia last week despite a raft of opportunities for both sides. Elsewhere, it might be best to dutch 1-5 point winning margins for both sides in what should be a nailbiter.

Advice

1 pt South Africa to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general)

1 pt England to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general)

2 pts Under 2.5 tries (11/10 general)

QBE Autumn Internationals 2012 - Ireland v Argentina

Ireland will have had few more crucial matches in their recent history than their last Autumn International against Argentina today and everything seems set toward a nail-biting clash for both Celts and Puma fans alike early this afternoon.

Declan Kidney’s side have had a disappointing year, failing to match the progress made during the early stage of the World Cup with a third places 6 Nations finish due to winning positions being given up against Wales and France, and they’ve failed to produce any performances of real note barring their close 22-19 defeat against New Zealand in Canterbury and have slipped enough in the IRB Rankings that defeat today coupled with victory for Scotland would see them drop out of the world’s top eight in time for the end of year rankings. This is so crucial purely because the seedings for the next Rugby World Cup are decided upon the three separate groups; Drop out of the eight and Ireland have a 75% chance of facing one of the Tri Nations, and could well draw a big 6 Nations Rival in two of their three games, which is a desperate situation before you’ve even started.

Ireland failure’s to hold onto a 9 point lead against South Africa at the beginning of the Autumn Internationals exposed a lot of their flaws and may prove rather costly considering that today’s assignment against Los Pumas – themselves still in danger of slipping out of the top eight – is as tricky as they could have asked for outside the big two. Long considered one of Rugby’s more dangerous sides, their long overdue admission to the Rugby Championship (the Four Nation) has seen them come to Europe more dangerous than ever and in sparkling form, with their cohesion better than ever before and their players now hardened and skilled from several years of top European completion, as Wales found out to their cost in the first week of the tour.

Admittedly they’ve gone to lose to Samoa since, but there was no denying just how impressive that performance was at the time and looks here even after Los Pumas’s heavy defeat to France (who it must be remembered had previously torn Australia apart 33-6). Given the second half barrage of points from the French it could be said that a heavy schedule is once again catching up with them – like the Rugby Championship double header at home which saw them lost twice to Australia and New Zealand – but it should be remembered that Ireland themselves are essentially an injury hit, underfiring side who aren’t in the same class as they are, and if Declan Kidney’s side win at all, they’ll be hard pushed to do so.

Advice

1 pt Ireland to win by 1-5 points (5/1 Hills) 

QBE Autumn Internationals - Italy v Australia

Still riding high after last week’s win over England, Australia should theoretically have little problem of disposing with Italy today in Rome although the Italians might be able to keep the score more respectable than many would think.

Handicap winners in 5 of their last 6 meeting with Australia, Italy put on a brave and very creditable showing against the All Blacks and while they were on the receiving end of a 32 point beating, the score was more than respectable against the world’s No.1 side by a distance and they should feel confident about throwing down a challenge to an Australia side which makes 4 changes from last week, with Brett Sheehan making his first start for the Wallabies and Drew Mitchell swapping roles with Digby Ioane. In their last two matches – at the World Cup and in Firenze 2 years ago – the score at half time was 9-13 Australia and 6-6 – so Italy to say within 8 points of the Wallabies. In terms of the winning margin, a dutch of 11-20 and 21-30 points for Australia has legs given the last two meetings between the sides.

Advice

2 pts Italy +8 on half time handicap (7/10 Sportingbet)

1 pt Australia to win by 11-20 points (3/1 Paddy Power)

1 pt Australia to win by 21-30 points (4/1 Paddy Power) 

Betfair Chase 2012

3.05 Haydock

Betfair Chase (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £112,540

Ante Post: 1 pt Long Run to win today, King George, and Cheltenham Gold Cup  (25/1 Paddy Power) 

Cannington Brook: Miles behind the rest of these but has won his last two C&D starts on heavy in extremely impressive style, including Tommy Whittle handicap chase last year; Recent pipe opener at Ascot should have done him the power of good and not discounted here with the rest of the field all relatively unproven on a deep surface.

Long Run: Disappointed last year based on the brilliance of previous campaigns, notably when third in Gold Cup as favourite and well beaten second in last year’s renewal; If showing his best, the clear outstanding favourite but slight worry about how fit he will be and whether deep ground actually suits him.

Silviniaco Conti:  Always threatened to be top class at some point (easy to forget how impressive he was over hurdles in first UK season) and end of season romp at Aintree followed up by equally impressive performance in Charlie Hall Chase; Needs to be seriously respected coming on from that, for all that ground would be a question too.

The Giant Bolster: The Giant Bolster: Takes liberties at his fences sometimes but plenty of class to go with that, as he showed when taking apart decent handicap chase field at Cheltenham and then running second in Gold Cup; Talented enough to win it, but feeling is that he needs the ground better than this to show his best.

Wayward Prince: Unable to progress in any way on terrific first season campaign last year barring his fourth place in the Rowyland Meyrick; No match for Silviniaco Conti latest and can’t see why he would overturn that form.

Weird Al: Only 2 lengths behind Long Run in this last year off the back of an excellent win in in Charlie Hall Chase; Disappointed in Gold Cup afterwards but we all know that test doesn’t suit him like some others and big chance here with ground not expected to be as much of an issue as it could be for others and his record fresh second to none.

VERDICT: An intriguing renewal, pitting one of the best established chasers (if not the best compared to who you’d want to believe) against one of the most exciting  second season chasers going in Long Run and Silviniaco Conti. This match up would be even more exciting if it was taking place on good ground however, and with the ground likely to be quite deep given the forecasts, it could pay to oppose them both if you’re betting here (while they have form on ground with cut, both are at their best on good ground by far). The Giant Bolster is easily good enough to win this but he too might not enjoy cut, which leaves one with WEIRD AL, and to a lesser extent, Cannington Brook, as the value in what looks to be a watching brief, although those who believe that Long Run is the best of this field are directed to the 25/1 Paddy Power offer on him winning this, the King George, and Gold Cup. 

Coral Hurdle 2012

2.45 Aintree

Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £50,643

Advice: 8 pts win Oscar Whisky (4/5 Hills)

Get Me Out Of Here: Gained deserved reward for his succession of runner up efforts in strong races last year (including the Betfair Hurdle and Coral Cup) when running out a convincing winner of Grade 2 at Fairyhouse on final start of last season; Should go well following convincing return at Kempton when beating decent rival but 7lbs worse off with Oscar Whisky for their meeting at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and doesn’t make appeal to turn that form around.

Oscar Whisky: Established top class chaser for the past couple of seasons, winning Aintree Hurdle for the past two years and being unbeaten outside of the Cheltenham Festival over hurdles barring his fall at the last in this last year, when trying to give 8lbs to Overturn (was upsides); Class clear of these at his best.

Brampour: Held his head high when pitched in the highest of company after successive big handicap hurdle wins last year (third in International Hurdle last year) despite being outclassed on number of occasions; Shouldn’t be good enough based on his second to Get Me Out Of Here lastest despite being 4lbs better off.

Raya Star: Unbelievable progress from third in Gerry Field Hurdle at Newbury last season, winning Ladbroke/Scottish Champion Hurdle and coming third in Betfair Hurdle; Deserves rise into graded company based upon his win under topweight here in October, doing it well considering he was giving stone to runner up; Should go well but Oscar Whisky different class.

VERDICT: Aintree Hurdle winner OSCAR WHISKY should be a class above these on his best form, and it’s a testament to his ability that he’s only been beaten at the Cheltenham Festival when staying up over hurdles in his career. He can beat Raya Star, Get Me Out Of Here, and Brampour. 

Amlin 1965 Chase 2012

2.10 Ascot

Amlin 1965 Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £28,475

Advice: 1 pt win Captain Chris (4/1 general)

Finian’s Rainbow: Really came of age as second season chaser last year, building on novice campaign with three wins from 4, including Champion and Melling Chases at Cheltenham and Aintree (particularly impressive in latter); Won first time out for the last three years so that not an issue, and must take the beating even giving weight away.

For Non Stop: Made into a classy novice chaser last season, notably when pushing Al Ferof all the way in Sandown Grade 2 Novice Chase although Scilly Isles win also worked out well and Cheltenham Festival third is strong; Sensational on return in Old Roan Chase when winning by 23 lengths, albeit getting a stone from Wishfull Thinking (leaves him closely matched with Finian’s Rainbow) in race which worked out to a tee for him; Should still go very well.

Ghizao: Twice beat Captain Chris with some ease in novice chasing days and only really disappointed in the Arkle (better when chasing home Finian’s Rainbow at Aintree); Never reached same form last year but if retaining as much of his ability as his easy graduation chase win (had literally nothing to beat after Kumbeshwar fell) suggests, he can play his part.

Quincy Des Pictons: Much improved last year, landing a hat trick of 2 & 1/2 mile handicap chases by a combined total of 41 lengths; Did look exposed when only seventh in handicap chase at the Festival;

Captain Chris: Didn’t reapeat successes of novice season last year but ran creditably on all but one occasion, having unseated at last when set to win Haldon Gold Cup, and then being held up by training problems before King George third, which was very creditable given that he was likely to have needed the run; Argento Chase win a blowout but Ryanair form as good as any form here and getting 10lbs from Finian’s Rainbow and 6 from For Non Stop, must have a cracking chance.

VERDICT: A classy renewal with three horses who could all be called Ryanair Chase contenders in their own right, two of them Grade 1 winners. Finian’s Rainbow is the best of them by some way based on his Melling and Champion Chase wins but he’s closely matched with Old Roan Chase winner For Non Stop based on a line through Wishfull Thinking, and Nick Williams’s chaser is a real threat getting 4lbs from Finian’s Rainbow. So too is CAPTAIN CHRIS, who gets 10lbs from Nicky Henderson’s charge and 6lbs from For Non Stop, which makes him hugely well in on his Ryanair fourth. 

India v England - 2nd Test Preview

India have lost three of their 6 matches at the Wankhede Stadium since the turn of the century but are still more than capable of take a firm stranglehold on this series by taking the second test of four in Mumbai against a reeling England side who still have the same questions against spin following their heavy defeat just a week ago in Ahmedabad.

While that game was very typical of an England defeat in Asia – India posted a giant first innings total, drilled through a capitulating English batting lineup, with enough runs in reserve to take as much time as they wanted through the second innings before a comfortable target of less than 100 (a near identical repeat of their first test in the UAE).

What that being yet another defeat for England in Asia, what could possibly be done to change? Firstly, as much as it seems to be ridiculous to hope on what’s just chance, the toss had a massive effect, with India able to post a total at their leisure on a home pitch and then face a very tired England outfit who had been fielding for 2 days in the heat, while the absence of a top class spinner apart from Graeme Swann – Samit Patel was not upto the job -  allowed India to have far too much comfort in the first two days with a dry, paceless surface rendering Jimmy Anderson and a below form Tim Bresnan/Stuart Broad near useless.

With Monty Panesar in the side England are theoretically halfway along to sorting their problems in the bowling department, and India’s poor recent record here – they could easily have lost to the West Indies, albeit that being an already won game – then you can suddenly make a bit of a case for the visitors, and if Alastair Cook’s men can win the toss then the prospect of bowling last on what is a viciously turning pitch on days 4 and 5 gives real incentive.

However it should be remembered that England’s main problem is playing the spin and the absence of Stuart Finn on a pitch which does offer seamers more assistance than Ahmedabad before the surface begins to crumble is a massive blow, and with two of the three seamers struggling badly already, the pressure is on to restain India’s first innings score before they’ve even started and that looks a bridge too far once again.

Advice

3 pts India (10/11 general)

Australia v South Africa - 2nd Test Preview

A wonderful winter of test cricket is already well underway and Australia and South Africa’s tightly matched battle for the top spot in the test rankings is the headliner tonight. What a times had looked to be a first test destined for export soon turned into a pulsating encounter until Australia’s middle orders staged a massive fightback from 40-3 don to 565-5 declared, and had South Africa reeling badly on the ropes to the point where only a matter of time saw them fail to grind out a result (a day had been totally lost to rain earlier).

With Australia so much better than the side that lost the Ashes 3-1 to England – since then they’ve whitewashed India here, beaten the West Indies (2-0) and Sri Lanka (1-0) on tour – the momentum they gained at the end of the first test sees them as real contenders for the second test win in what was already an extremely evenly matched series, although there are some reasons to think that South Africa can improve from their showing in Brisbane.

It’s easy to forget that the rain interruption came when South Africa were cruising at 255-2, and also that the pace attack which would soon flounder so badly once had Australia at 40-3. The lack of a holding bowler (the JP Duminy inury), the loss of line and length as the day went on, and the insane amount of extra runs conceded and also the chances missed through no balls (They bowled 22 no-balls of which Kleinveldt sent down 11, Philander eight and Morkel two - both of which would have been wickets), are all things that they’ll have worked hard on in the interim, and with Imran Tahir not only in to take pressure away from the big 5, but to take adnvtage of a pitch which traditionally turns very sharply on days 4 and 5, and Faf Du Plessis’s inclusion in the field there to bring some extra stability, and a switch to short ball tactics to disrupt Australia’s middle order, and suddenly the No.1 team in the world make quite a lot of appeal to take the lead in this series. With this being such a results track – only two of the last 10 tests here have been draws – so laying the stalemate either now or after the end of the first innings might be a wise move, with South Africa’s long unbeaten run – they’ve not been beaten since 2006 outside their own country making the tourists a tempting enough proposition at 21/10, although the improvement shown by Australia is enough of a warning sign for the match odds to be left alone. Indeed, the best bet for the series might be the 1-1; South Africa are yet to win two Test matches in succession in almost three years and the third test is sure to be played

The management – none of which had any experience of playing cricket at the Gabba – was said to have badly misread the pitch (which had gotten greener throughought the week beforehand), fielding an all-pace attack with heavy dependence on a part-time spinner who was then injured, with the pitch utterly lifeless through days 3 and 4, where Clarke, Cowan and Hussey took a tiring and ineffective attack apart for 376 runs in just one day.

Despite the team having taken a break since, they should be much better prepared for this assignment with the Adelaide Oval’s pitch being much better known. Ever the batsman friendly pitch, the first innings average is 452 over the last 10 years with the 500 mark having been passed 4 times so far. With both Australia and South Africa’s batting attacks in prime form based on the first test (South Africa made 450, and Australia could well have gone to 600 with ease), and a target of 396 runs looks to be very reachable indeed for either side. Either side should be able to do it, so make whoever wins the toss/bats first to go past that market your first wager.

South Africa have Alvairo Pietersen, Jacques Kallis, AB De Villers, Graeme Smith and Hashim Amla as reliable sources of runs, South Africa easily have the batsmen to back up that play on the stats, with Amla’s performance points looking to be a solid back at 92 with Bet365, who give a point per run, and 10 points per catch (there is 25 points for a stumping and 25 for a wicket, but that doesn’t apply to batsmen). With 11 1^st innings fifties in his last 23 tests, Amla makes obvious appeal not only on this score but Ladbrokes’s batsman handicap.

For Australia, Michael Clarke – the leading run getter in tests this year – is the obvious man to look to, and 96 is more than surpassable for the top runscorer at the venue in the last five years with 689 runs, and someone who hit a triple century back in January and 259 back against India here no more than 11 months ago. He too, can take all the beating off scratch in the handicap.

Advice

10 pts Australia/South Africa* to score more than 396 1^st innings runs (5/6 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Hashim Amla +2 on 1^st Innings H’cap (7/1 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Michael Clarke (scratch) on 1^st Innings H'Cap (7/1 Ladbrokes)

2 pts Hashim Amla to score 92 or more performance points (5/6 Bet365)

1 pt Michael Clarke to score 96 or more performance points (5/6 Bet365)

*whichever bats first 

Champions League - 21st November 2012

Ajax (3) v Borussia Dortmund (20/23)

Borussia Dortmund can all but seal their place in the last 16 by beating Ajax tonight. For all that Dortmund have won just twice on the road in the League this season but were magnificent at Manchester City and Real Madrid, and with Ajax’s recent home record being so poor, they make the most appeal of the two although the draw is a viable contender.

Advice: 1 pt Borussia Dortmund to win by 1 goal (3/1 general)

Anderlecht (15/8) v AC Milan (6/4)

AC Milan are in a position they’re not comfortable with; Down in 12^th in Serie A with just 15 points to their name so far, with one of the poorest sides they’ve had in recent memory and just one player who’s performed with any note this season. However Anderlecht haven’t been brilliant sof ar despite strong showings against Zenit home and away, and a 2-2 draw against Napoli in Naples represents some sort of improvement upon what they’d been doing at the start of the season.

Advice: 1 pt Milan (6/4 general)

Dynamo Kiev (2) v PSG (6/4)

PSG have stuttered of late in France but those performances came without  talisman Zaltan Ibrahimovic and their class edge makes them attractive propositions to beat Dynamo Kiev, who they thrashed 4-1 at home on Matchday 1.

Advice: 2 pts PSG (6/4 general)

Manchester City (11/5) v Real Madrid (7/5)

Manchester City are already out of the Champions League – Dortmund will get through with a point against Ajax – and Real Madrid look suitably priced to stick the final nail in the coffin today. City are unbeaten in 19 home games in this completion and against some pretty strong sides too but Real are a step above and have won 5 in their last 6, including a 5-1 romp against Bilbao on Sunday which presented some of their best football the season. Odds against on Mourinhio’s men scoring 2 or more also seems very generous too.

Advice: 5 pts Real Madrid (7/5 Bet Victor)

Porto (1/6) v Dinamo Zagreb (22)

Porto are already qualified and should make short of Dinamo Zagreb, who have lost their 10 Champions League matches - without scoring in eight of those. Porto haven’t won any of their last 15 matches by more than 2 goals, so the 2-0 and 3-0 correct scores look to be the way to go.

Advice: 1 pt 2-0 Porto, (6/2 Bet Victor), 1 pt 3-0 Porto (6/1 general)

Schalke 04 (4/9) v Olympiakos (7)

Schalke’s impressive pair of away wins at Arsenal and Olympiakos haven’t been supplemented with the same results you’d expect at home, although they’ve scored 2 goals on all 4 of their games so far. Olympiakos aren’t the strongest travellers but did beat Montpellier, kept their hopes alive by beating Marsellie at this stage of the completion, and have won 8 of their 11 games so far in the Greek League. This could be a high scoring one.

Advice: 3 pts Over 2.5 goals (8/11 188Bet) 

Champions League - 20th November 2012

BATE (11/10) v Lille (14/5)

With the loss of talisman and star player Eden Hzard, Lille have been badly exposed in this season’s Champions League, conceding three goals a game on average one of only two sides yet to register a point. BATE may have been beaten by Valencia on the last two matchdays but they’re a force to be dealt with at home and have a big opportunity to put themselves back in the race for qualification here.

Advice: 2 pts BATE (11/10 general)

Spartak (11) v Barcelona (3/10)

Spartak have only won two of their 14 home games in the Champions League and look vulnerable against a Barcelona side which has scored at least 3 goals in 5 of their last 6 games and can now call upon first choice defensive pair Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol. The hosts also have an immense injury crisis, with all three goalkeepers on the sidelines, along with strikers Artem Dzyuba and Welliton while skipper Sergei Parshivlyuk is also absent.

Advice: 2 pts Barcelona to score 3 or more goals (19/20 Sportingbet)

Benfica (1/2) v Celtic (7)

A scoring draw will get Celtic through to the last 16 and they look well capable of taking a draw against Benfica to all but get the job done. Neil Lennon’s side reversed a long time away hoodoo against Spartak Moscow on the second matchday and if able to show the resolve which saw them keep out the Catalans, they will give Benfica a serious test.

Advice: 1 pt Celtic +1.25 on Asian H’Cap (5/6 188Bet)

Valencia (5/2) v Bayern Munich (13/10)

Valencia have improved upon their sloppy start to get some sort of a run going in La Liga and should contribute to an exciting game on the home turf which suits them so well. In La Liga Los Che have won five and drawn one at the Mestalla, including an impressive 2-0 win over second placed Athleico Madrid less than three weeks ago. Bayern have the quality to make their mark on the game but their away record in Europe  is poor for a side of their quality, so Over 2.5 goals appeals more instead.

Advice: 2 pts Over 2.5 goals (8/11 Bet365)

Cluj (11/5) v Braga (6/4)

Braga’s failure to hit the target saw them lose 2-0 to Braga on the opening night but they can gain revenge against Cluj tonight. The Portugese were 2-0 up at Old Trafford against a full strength United side before the home side’s striking power turned things around and beat Galatasray 2-0 in Turkey,  so are no mugs on the road and have enough to come away with a win tonight.

Advice: 1 pt Braga (6/4 Stan James)

 FC Nordsjaelland (9/1) v Shakhtar Donetsk (4/11)

Nordsjaelland have done themselves proud in the Champions League but have been unlucky to find themselves in a group containing three teams who could easily be called semi – finalists and Shakhtar, who outplayed Juventus and especially Chelsea away, could prove to be a class apart.

Advice: 1 pt Shakhtar -1 (5/6 general)

Galatasaray (21/20) v Manchester United (29/10)

With United already through to the last 16 and several youth players in the squad for today’s match, it’s no surprise to see Galatasaray favourites, but the Turks have an unconvincing record at home in the competition and failed to beat Braga and Cluj at home. Despite the changes, United’s first predicted team is still set to have Herandez, Young, Wellbeck, Cleverley, Buttner, Rafael and Phil Jones, and considering all that 8/11 on them for them to avoid defeat is tempting, although the 18/1 for them to come from behind and win with Boylesports is too big to resist, having fallen behind in 12 of their 18 matches (eight in 12 Premier League games) this season, yet managed to hit back and win on eight occasions. 

Advice: 1 pt Manchester United to win from behind (18/1 Boylesports)

Juventus (4/5) v Chelsea (7/2)

Despite drawing 3 of their 4 games, Juventus are in a prime position to reach the last 16 if they can beat Chelsea, and with Roberto Di Matteo’s side suffering what seems to be their annual Ocotber/November slump, it’s no surprise to see the Serie A leaders as favourites, having lost just one game in some 53 games. With Chelsea having let in two goals in three of their games so far, and Chelsea having won two of their last nine Champions League away games, they’re worthy favourites despite a stuttering 0-0 against Lazio on Sunday, but the best value might be both teams to score. It’s happened in all of Juve’s games bar Nordsjelland at home and Chelsea’s last 9, so looks to be more secure than either side at the match prices (indeed the draw might not be the worst value, or 2-1 to Juve).

Advice: 3 pts Both teams to score (8/11 Stan James)  

Cheltenham Open Meeting 2012 - Racing Post Hurdle

There’s just under four months to go until the Cheltenham Festival and we get the first proper trial for the Champion Hurdle in the Greatwood Hurdle, run for the first year as the Racing Post Hurdle. This famous handicap has often produced a Champion Hurdle Contender. Since 2000, Westender has come second in a Supreme Novices and then next season’s Champion, Rooster Booster romped to Champion Victory, Accordion Etoile has was fourth in the next season’s Champion, Detroit City may have flopped as favourite but proved himself to be upto that class, Sizing Europe would surely have won but for going wrong, Khyber Kim was second to Binocular, Menorah won the International Hurdle and was fifth and even Brampour ran OK for a horse who was clearly out of his depth in the big one.

This year’s class act was meant to be Darlan, a fast finishing second in the Supeme Novices Hurdle last year and a really convincing winner at Aintree next time out, but the testing ground overnight has robbed us of his presence with trainer Nicky Henderson opting (perhaps wisely, much like with Sprinter Sacre) to save him for another day. Luckily he also has Cash And Go, (left) who won a Grade 1 last year in Ireland after two novice hurdle wins and had his season cut short after scoping badly in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle. What that form didn’t work out so well for Grade 1 standards, it was still a strong event by Irish standards and the fact that he’s won on soft and heavy is a great help when considering the ground (which should , and his poor scope has helped his mark drop a little from 144 to 141. With the switch to Henderson’s yard potentially unlocking more improvement, he makes plenty of appeal even at around 6/1, with Paddy Power's 11/2 making each/way appeal with a generous 5 places. 

With races such as these it often pays to have a second string to your bow and it’s notable that from a list of the last 10 winners, we can find that 9 of the last 10 winners were from racing a career high hurdles mark and horses rated 140 or higher have won 8 of the last 10 from just under 1/3rd of the total runners, making a shortlist from the 24 runners of Darlan, Prospect Wells, Rattan, Cash and Go and Bothy.

With Cash And Go already onside and Darlan potentially not running, or enjoying the ground, that leaves us with Rattan, Bothy and Prospect Wells, of which Paul Nicholls's charge is easily the most appealing, having drawn well clear of a good field when finding only Zarkandar too good. Admittedly he was getting a stone from his stablemate, but the rest of the Elite Hurdle field compromised of horses all rated at least 143 (not least the exciting Balder Succes) and he was upwards of seven lengths clear of them. Racing off the same mark but with Harry Derham taking 7lbs off in a bid to win this for the second year running, he makes obvious appeal today if he doesn’t find himself getting too stuck in the ground, which looked to have dried out a little during racing.

Advice

1 pt each/way Cash and Go (6/1 Blue Sq, 11/2 Paddy Power*)

1 pt each/way Prospect Wells (7/1 Blue Sq, 13/2 Paddy Power)

Dobbins & Madigans At Punchestown Morgiana Hurdle

2.15 Punchestown

Dobbins & Madigans At Punchestown Morgiana Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner €48,000

Captain Cee Bee: Not quite the beast of old (Supreme Novices Hurdle winner, Grade 1 winner over fences as novice before reverting) but still can go a fair clip even at this age up one of best performances for ages when slamming Rebel Fitz t Tipperary 6 weeks ago; Still the outsider of three here despite that though.

Go Native: Once one of the most talented, if not the best 2m hurdler around in this sphere 2 years ago before injury, having won Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle in easy style beforehand; Fear that he’d never make it back after tendon trouble but followed up promising flat comeback at Navan with easy win at Galway and if ready to go here, serious threat to the favourite.

Hurricane Fly: Lost his title of Champion Hurdler at Cheltenham and felt slightly laboured here afterwards but easy to forget he’s been beaten just twice in last three seasons, although one of them in a slowly run renewal of this to Solwhit; The one to beat by some way but no value at all and might be at his most vulnerable.

VERDICT: After defeat in the Champion Hurdle, all eyes are on how Hurricane Fly will do this season and he should win this on all evidence but GO NATIVE was a serious hurdler before injury struck and if he’s come back as good as his flat efforts suggest, will pose a serious threat in what should be a sprint between the two including Captain Cee Bee.