Mourad Bouedjaal’s millions look destined to bring Toulon
plenty of certain glory in the future but upon all the previous evidence they
will have to produce their best ever performance to reach a first Heineken Cup
final against Saracens at Wembley today.
Beaten in the finals of the Challenge Cup and Top 14 last
year, Toulon’s anguish at being beaten by a combined total of just 6 points in
both those events has led to even more additions to an already start studded
squad - Chris Masoe Nicolas Durand, Freddy Michalak, Maxime Mermoz, Andrew Sheridan,
Gethin Jenkins, Guy and Delon Armitage having all joined over the summer – and
they’ve looked better than ever this season, drawing well away from the rest of
the Top 14 with Clermont this season in ominous fashion.
Saracens were wiped aside in such brutal fashion by this
year’s finalists Clermont at the quarter final stage that they raised the issue
of the salary cap between the Premiership and Top 14, but at no time this
season have they looked like that would be an issue, making it through their
pool against Munster with relative ease and shutting down Ulster here in the
quarter final comfortably on their way to a 27-16 win which flattered the away
side to a significant degree thanks to a late try.
The switch to their new home and plastic pitch seems to have
realty bought out the best from Mark McCall’s men, who have often been accused
of lacking attacking ambition, yet have averaged 29 points against since
January, scoring 172 points in the 5 games there in a run which has seen them
move clear at the top of the Premiership table, leading Leicester by 4 points
going into this week. That same Leicester side pushed Toulon all the way to a 6
point defeat at the Stade Mayol in the quarters just three weeks ago, and it’s
had not to argue that this Saracens side aren’t at least the equal of that
outfit or even better.
Toulon’s strength in depth can win them any game, but if
there’s any situation in which they look beatable, its when travelling. Never
at their most vulnerable than when away from the South of France, Toulon have
lost 6 of their last 9 away matches in the Top 14, and while they’ve only lost
one game in this season’s competition, it as an absolute battering (22-3) at
the hands of Montpellier. That game was played in special circumstances – the
death of a popular club figure in midweek combined with the motivation of a
quarter final place and also Toulon having been guaranteed a spot in the last
eight – but of their seven defeats, 6 have been on the road and in Saracens
they face their toughest challenge yet.
With so much talent in the backlines of these two much of
the focus has been upon the No10 battle of Wilkinson v Farell but when the
toing gets tough, these two revert to the same weapons – a powerful pack, and
scrum, superb breakdown, ruthlessly efficient kick chase game, and strong
lineout – and this could be a very tight game indeed with so much on the line.
Toulon’s win against Leicester was tryless while Saracens - famed for their defence and experts at slowing the ball down from the best of opposition packs - were content with grinding
down an Ulster side with most of the possession here a couple of weeks ago. The
12/1 Coral offer on no tryscorer looks too big while the supplementing it with
under 2.5 tries looks to be the best way to play the game – those on the
exchanges should look towards playing the draw.
Advice
1 pt No Tryscorer (12/1 Coral, Totesport)
2 pts Under 2.5 tries (evs Bet365)
Already Advised
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