The Lions 2013: Who, where, and why???

Tomorrow at 11AM, years (literally) of debate will end and we will finally find out the Lions squad. With less than 24 hours to go, the Vic Page takes and advance preview and prediction of the men set to go, with each one profiled and reasoned for. Enjoy or despair, and send any comments you have to @KeejayOV on Twitter

Full-backs:

Leigh Halfpenny (Wal) – One of the most reliable players in world rugby, and an absolute rock in the two 6 Nations’ successes for Wales. While he doesn’t quite boast the raw pace of his Scottish counterpart – although he is adept at finishing any chances that may come to him at close range as he showed on his try in their comeback against Ireland - his defensive reliability under both the high ball and in the tackle, combined with the x factor of his exceptional goalkicking game, make him the first certainty for the test squad.

Stuart Hogg (Sco) – Arguably the revelation of the 6 Nations with sheer speed combined with wonderful angles leading to some magical tries, not least his length of the field score against Italy, along with an outstanding showing against England. Not quite reliable as Halfpenny in defence, but outstanding running, footballing skills and a solid kicking game means that he ousts Rob Kearney for the runner up spot. 

Wings:

Tim Visser (Sco) – Many here want to see Tommy Bowe travelling and with his top class international record that’s understandable, but ever since Visser has become eligible for Scotland he’s been a revelation, providing a constant threat in a backline that has been sorely missing such a presence for years, scoring 6 tries in just a handful of appearances including two against the All Blacks. His defensive game might be a little vulnerable, but he is well worth inclusion in the squad.

Alex Cuthbert (Wal) – The second of our Saturday certainties, Cuthbert has become the go to man for Wales, scoring 7 tries in the last two 6 Nations including the match winning tries in both deciding games for their Grand Slam and Championship triumph. An ever present threat in in the three match test series that Wales arguably should have won, scoring a try in the first test, he has plenty of experience on the and embodies Gatland’s mantra of force alongside pace.

George North (Wal) – Has become more of a player to make the hard yards rather than the finishing skills he showed when bursting onto the scene at the World Cup two years ago, but he’s no less valuable and makes an invaluable amount of yardage, along with the possibility of linebreaks like the one that set up Hibbard’s try against Scotland, make him a must for the Saturday side.

Simon Zebo (Ire) – Based on his tremendous defensive presence in the Heineken Cup quarter and semi finals, you get the feeling that there would be little arguing with his selection had he stayed fit for Ireland in the 6 Nations. An outstanding footballer and now vastly improved tactically – his positioning against Wales in both defence and attack as outstanding – he can also lay claim to be one of the quickest wings in the NH and that seals the deal.

Centres:

Jonathan Davies (Wal) – Passed poorly in Wales’s opening defeat against Ireland  - and that may still be an issue despite his relatively impressive tryscoring record for Wales at international level - but improved steadily as the tournament went on and invaluable towards making hard yards in attack, while his defensive qualities can't be dismissed out of hand. Always potential for a Wales centre partnership between him and Jamie Roberts if anything (god forbid) should happen to Brian O'Driscoll.

Brian O’Driscoll (Ire) – A great of world rugby and a veteran of the last two tours, O’Driscoll is approaching the twilight of his career but proved that he has all the class which took him to such heights with a stunning performance against Wales on the opening day of the 6 Nations. He failed to recapture that form for the rest of the tournament, but recent performances for Leinster suggest that he may just have been suffering the same blip that most of the Irish team did, Some may worry about his longevity, but he’s a must start based on what we’ve seen of late.

Jamie Roberts (Wal) – A standout when linking magically with O’Driscoll on the last tour and has remained one of Europe’s best centres since. Never been in doubt and brings a better passing game than most in his position.

Manu Tuilagi (Eng) – Another bosh merchant, some might say, but there’s no question that he can turn a game on it’s head at any moment and while he had a disappointing end to the Championship in Cardiff – what Englishman didn’t? – the way he ripped New Zealand apart last winter is enough confirmation of his talents. England have been overealiant upon him but playing outside of Sexton should change that and he’s likely to be far more effective in this setup, especially if used as an impact substitute against tired players late on.

Fly-halves:

Johnny Wikinson (Eng) – This comes with the proviso that i) Gatland is willing to look past the inevitable fact that Toulon will use him for the playoffs – and the odds on them failing to reach the final are long – and that ii) He’s used in the latter stages of a game to pin Australia back territorially and remove defensive danger. The second point may seem very dismissive in the light of two excellent Toulon performances, but much of the plaudits revolved around his admittedly well-taken drop goals and the penalties he put away behind a dominant second half performance from one of the best packs in European club rugby. With Leigh Halfpenny – who is just as good off the tee - on the field the focus of his game is going to have to change and most of Toulon’s attacking opportunities yesterday were actually created by Matt Giteau, who had a stunning game. I’m not saying for one minute that he couldn’t do the job (Toulon have score a tremendous amount of points in the Top 14, averaging about 40 a game at the Stade Mayol at least, and yesterday’s game was atypical of the way that he’s been playing for them for the majority of the French season) – and he proved that Owen Farell has a long way to go before he can be considered for such a role – but Australia will be a different test in every way.

Jonathan Sexton (Ire) – Another test certainty, and yes, this is ahead of Johnny Wilkinson, having been Europe’s premier flyhalf for at least three years now. A fantastic user of the uber mobile Leinster pack, he thrives on the turnover ball Gatland is so keen to provide and has one of the best running games in the world, along with one of the best passes. Placekicking is not his first resort but he does it as well as anyone, while he is also a lethal runner when finding the space to do so – just ask Northampton, or indeed England’s 2011 title winning side. He may not be able to employ the famed Leinster/Ireland loop he enjoys so much with O’Dsricoll potentially the only fellow Irishman in the backline, but with Halfpenny in the side goalkicking responsibilities are off his shoulders, and he has no equals in bringing other men around him into the game. Three Heineken Cups in four years – one with two tries to his name in the final – underlines the big game temperament he has which seems to have impressed so many in recent weeks from Wilkinson.

Scrum-halves: 

Mike Phillips (Wal) – The odds on choice to start, having been Gatland’s go to man for many years now and also a major part in the Lions’s best efforts in the second and third tests of 2009. Didn’t have much of a test behind a dominant pack in Cardiff but is reliable, strong, the best of the three in defence, has the best kicking game and can also involve himself within the breakdown as well, which is always a bonus.

Conor Murray (Ire) – Has come a mile from costing his Munster side a hard fought victory at Racing Metro on the opening matchday of the Heineken Cup, impressing in the 6 Nations bar his one dithering moment against Scotland and being one of the quiet standout players for Munster against Harlequins and Clermont. His defensive game has improved, but the real progress he’s made is with his running and box kicking. Dismissed any doubts last weekend.

Ben Youngs (Eng) – Badly missed by England when Danny Care’s sliced box kick – not for the first time – cost them badly against Italy in the 6 Nations, and unable to do anything with a retreating pack and smashed front row in Cardiff, Youngs has generally been England’s best scrum half on every other occasion and has a game around the fringes that is now almost unrivalled, and pace to burn as he showed with his fantastic length of the field score against Bath and his deeply impressive showing against Toulon in the Heineken Cup as well. His strong recent form in the Southern Hemisphere – he’s scored against the Aussies on their home turf and also bagged two in South Africa last year – is a bonus.

Props:

Cian Healy (Ire) – One of the standout’s of a poor Ireland 6 Nations campaign, and took a look a leading role when they beat a strong Australia side in the pool stage of the 2011 World Cup. A top class scrummager who also boasts a tremendous loose game and carrying ability, his fine form give confidence that he’s over his disciplinary issues of the early spring.

Gethin Jenkins (Wal) – Has the proviso of Toulon wanting him for the Top 14 playoffs – and regardless of his position behind Andrew Sherdian in the starting side he will be used – but impossible to leave out on the basis of his destruction of Scotland and England in the last two rounds of the 6 Nations. A wealth of experience – he played in all three tests against New Zealand – along with the ablity to cover loose or tighthead prop, make him a must fly.

Adam Jones (Wal) – The form tighthead prop of this year’s 6 Nations, Jones’s single handed destruction of the admittedly below par and below standard Joe Marler from the 1^st minute, and then Mako Vunipola, was sublime and went a long way towards building such an exaggerated margin of victory. A previous Lion, he looks to be a test certainty.

Dan Cole (Eng)  - Doesn’t have quite the reputation that he did last year after what could only be called a schooling by Tomas Domingo on week three and then coming off second best in Cardiff, but it’s hard to find a more active front rower at the breakdown and in the loose, while he’s been made to look average on a couple of occasions, he’s still easily good enough to tour and the defiencies of Joe Marler made him look worse than he was in Cardiff. A must tour and likely replacement.

Ryan Grant (Sco) – Scotland’s back three have gotten most of the plaudits for their recent improvements within the 6 Nations but they’ve fronted up plenty at scrum time and with 6 props likely to travel, there are worse ideas than taking Grant, who played in Australia’s 6-9 win over Scotland in the single test they played and is now a mainstay of that side. 

Mako Vunipola – A bolter here but he turned plenty in favour for England when coming on in all 5 games, outplaying Joe Marler on each and every occasion – never more so than against France when a previously outplayed England then drew well clear of their opponents – and also giving the go forward than England’s pack had sorely lacked for most of the tournament. Excellent against Toulon on Sunday, his ball carrying ability appeals as a possible impact player.

Hookers:

Rory Best (Ire) – Not had his best of seasons, with a dismal game against Scotland helping to derail Ireland’s 6 Nation campaign after a season that had started so strongly when part of the Ulster side that led the field in the Heineken Cup and also when creating Cian Healy’s try through his chargedown of Dan Biggar’s kick in Ireland’s opening win. He travels, like many of the Irish forwards, thanks to his abilities in the loose and with the ball, although he needs a serious uptrurn in the lineout performances that were once his trademark.

 Richard Hibbard (Wal) – Another Welshman, but no apologies for the late bloomer who has taken ruthless advantage of Matthew Rees’ injury with rock solid performances, culminating in fine style against Scotland where his try put distance between the Welsh and Scots, while he – like the whole team - was wonderful against England. Looks a hot favourite to start.

Tom Youngs (Eng) – One of the finds of recent seasons for England with just a handful of caps, impressing hugely in the Autumn Internationals – obviously against New Zealand, where his pick and drive was exceptional and he added tremendous amounts to the rolling maul. An all around the park presence and pace with the ball only enhances his prospects of making the test side.

Locks:

Alun Wyn Jones (Wal) – A replacement in the 2009 series for the second and third tests, Jones has come a long way from being the man who ‘probably cost Wales the game’ when tripping Dylan Hartley, and creating an advantage in which England put 17 points upon their counterparts in their 2012 6 Nations opener. Likely to start alongside O’Connell.

Paul O'Connell (Ire, Capt) – The very embodiment of lion and a leading presence in 2009, many feared for O’Connell following his back problems, but he came roaring back with that performance in the Heineken Cup against Harlequins and he was at least as good against Clermont at the weekend. His talents seemingly have no end, but his lineout operation will be a much-needed asset and his presence in a driving maul is also second to none, while his immense defence and ball carrying make him another certain starter. Well placed to run the game tactically at lock, he is also an obvious captain’s pick with the experience of many years behind him.

Geoff Parling (Eng) – If there’s anyone who embodies the Stuart Lancaster era, it’s Geoff Parling. Make of that statement what you will, but the fact of the matter is that England have won eight of their last 10 6 Nations internationals and finished ahead of Ireland in the last two 6 nations, and this man has seen at the head of it all. A fantastic presence with the ball and well versed in the art of fast ground rugby, an outstanding tackler and near unbeatable in the lineout or controlling a drive, it would be a terrible shame were he to miss out on selection as many have hinted at.

Ian Evans (Wal) – Wales were facing a lock crisis at the beginning of the 6 Nations but both Ian Evans, and to a later extent, Alun Wyn Jones, stepped upto the plate masterfully and have to be the favourites to start, and certainties to travel. A standout for both club and country, Evans would be my preferred of the Welsh locks, but not by much.

Flankers:

Dan Lydiate (Wal) – The revelation of the 2012 6 Nations, with his superb tackling technique of completely chopping the legs of a player offering quick ball and providing one of Alex Cuthbert’s two tries in the end of season games against France, along with an industry upon which Sam Warburton in particular thrived. Injured since the summer tour of Australia, but back in the nick of time and was impressive against Munster, albeit a side that had bigger fish to fry. Has had only the 4 games for the dragons, but should be back in his stride by test time after testing himself out against local sides.

Sean O'Brien (Ire) – One of the premier players in Ireland’s defeat of Australia 2 hours ago, O’Brien’s ablity when breaking the gainline is amongst the best in the world and he was one of the highlights of a what was a dire 6 Nations for Ireland. Like his countrymen, proficient at the breakdown, and also able to throw himself about when covering in defence, he gets the vote over an embarrassment of Irish backrow riches.

 Sam Warburton (Wal) – The talisman of Welsh Rugby, Warburton’s only disappointing spell has been the long barren run after their first Grand Slam, and even then he did very little wrong in the three tests Wales lost here. Put simply, he is one of the world’s best flankers and up against either George Smith or Liam Gill in a breakdown battle his chances will be crucial towards Lions successes this summer.

Tom Croft (Eng) – A star turn in 2009 by chance, with Alan Quinlan being cited early on, Croft led the fightback in the first test with two of the fast finishes that have become his trademark – those who want a real treat should see his winner against France in last year’s 6 Nations – Croft was a prominent figure in what was one of the games of the decade, that agonising loss to lose the series 2-0, and the easy win afterwards. Since then he has been a bastion of the England side, but it’s all too easy to forget that he’s lucky to be walking, let alone here. His horrific neck injury gained towards the end of last year could have paralysed him, but instead he’s back and better for ever at Leicester for club level. Able to cover open and blindside flanker, with the power and height for lock as well, he is crying out upon the basis of versatility, but his most appealing quality is the raw pace which allows him to score tries at a remarkable rate for a backrow forward, having cut open the opposition numerous times for both club and country, while he is an excellent lineout operator and good, if not great, breakdown presence. To judge him based on his 6 Nations – where he was rushed back far too soon considering the nature of his injury – would be just foolish and he is confidently picked over Tom Wood.

Justin Tipuric (Wal) – Many will see his crowning glory as his England performance but the reality is that for the whole of this season Tipuric had been putting his hand up for Welsh and Lions selection and he excelled in the 6 Nations. In tandem with Warburton, his destruction of England’s backrow was superb and the ball skills and pace he showed in both Welsh tries was very encouraging for the hard grounds of Australia, especially when fooling Mike Brown for Cuthbert’s second after a break of more than 50 meteres. 

Number 8’s:

Toby Faletau (Wal): Picks himself after another superb 6 Nations, although it’s easy to remember the fine World Cup that he had a couple of years ago. His partnership with other Welsh backrow members could well give crucial go forward in the pack, and he has plenty of Southern Hemisphere experience to boot.

Jamie Heaslip: To be frank, had a shocking 6 Nations but his form since then has made him and extremely worthy tourist and he embodies all the qualities that a No.8 needs, his performance against Biarritz – 2 tries, 6 defenders beaten, and 13 gainline successes, showed that he is one of Europe’s premier no 8’s.

Ben Morgan (Eng): If there was anything that showed his pure importance to the England side, it was the destruction that they suffered in Wales with Wood at the back of the scrum and going backwards on each and every occasion. Simply a pure powerhouse at his best, he arguably has the most go forward of any No.8 in the Northern Hemisphere apart from Louis Picamoles and made a fantastic return against Saracens last week. That alone won’t see him through but Exeter at Sandy Park should be a great workout and if his ankle holds, he can challenge for a test place.