Aintree Hurdle 2013 - Sefton Novice Hurdle

4.15 Aintree

John Smith's Sefton Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £56,270

At Fishers Cross: The unquestionable form horse in the field, having won his last 5 starts including impressive Graded successes when outstaying top novice The New One in 2m5f Grade 2, and then in Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival; Compelling form case but has done all of his racing on soft ground so far and had hard race at Cheltenham, so at least some vulnerability about him today for all that he holds form edge.

Buchaill Aliann: Should enjoy the change in ground from last two runs here based on his two good ground wins last summer but shaped as if he needed more than 3m when second in Pertemps qualifier here in October and others preferred.

Gevrey Chambertain: Brother to Grands Crus who was living upto family reputation (4 wins, all of them impressive in their own way and suggesting that he promised to improve for step up to 3m) until Cheltneham blowut when heavily backed favourite; Lot to prove after that but still worth a chance with only six runs under his belt.

Just a Par: Plenty of promise for Tom Nagle, impressive in PTP at Loughrea and then maiden hurdle at Punchestown, after which he was sold to Paul Nicholls, for whom he was a beaten favourite at Exeter over 2m3f (heavy); Should improve plenty for that experience and the step up in trip, so of interest here as a fresh horse.

Kris Cross: Winner of point, bumper and maiden hurdle but that win came in May 2012 and looks a long way behind this level.

Master of The Sea: Huge improver since being sent handicapping, racking up 4 timer from 2m4f to 3m (all on soft ground) and then a staying on fourth in Coral Cup latest; Will be much the better for this trip but had hard race there too which is question mark.

Road To Riches: Unbeaten in three rules starts since impressive PTP win last may, comfortably taking 3m Grade 3 at Punchestown despite making massive mess of last; Comes here a fresh horse having first run since December and plenty of potential, for all that good ground a major question mark for him.

Uxizandre: Useful form in winning two of four starts here, looking a rejuvenated horse when stepped up to 3m1f on soft ground at Warwick latest; More to come for sure (don’t know how he’ll go on ground though) and he could go well today.

Yesyoucan: Massive improver in the handicap ranks this season, winning well contested Haydock handicap and the scoring by 12 lengths at Carlisle latest (2m4f, soft); One run on good ground was a second (2m1f, July 2012) and will stay this trip, so plenty to recommend him.

VERDICT: A tricky betting race. At Fishers Cross has the best form, but had a hard race at the festival, is around a much tighter, flatter track, and has never run on ground this fast before, which is enough to make one oppose him today despite his obvious class. Confidence in the second and third favourites Road to Riches and Masterofthesea is dented by the fact that the former has the ground question hanging over him as well and the latter had a hard race in the Coral Cup; The answer for value seekers may well be YESYOUCAN, who ran well on his only good ground start over an inadequate trip, missed the Festival and will improve for this first start over three miles.