The Masters 2013

In the heat of the extraordinary moment, with his playoff record standing at 16-3, his earnings through the $100 million dollar mark, and his 15^th major title in the bag despite playing his first tournament since undergoing knee surgery only a month ago, very few would have predicted that Tiger Woods wouldn't win another major in nearly 5 years, such was the tenacity and skill he showed when lading the 2008 US Open in a playoff at Torrey Pines. Of course, nobody could have predicted the nature of the scandal and injury that he would suffer which would cause him to fall to a ranking of just 58 in the world from such dominant heights, but following extensive work both on and off the course there’s been good reason for many to believe that this week’s hot Masters favorite is back to something like the form which has seen him become one of the greats of the sport.

Three US Tour wins so far this season at Torrey Pines, Doral and Bay Hill, all achieved with a degree of certainty and relative comfort that Tiger has failed to show on some occasions since 2009, while his putting has arguably been as a good as it was in his yesteryear. Even more encouraging is his excellent form on the par 5’s where the Masters are so often decided – as we discuss later while looking at the course -  he leads the field in par 5 brides for the PGS Tour this season while he shot birdies at every  par-five hole in his final round at Bay Hill; In winning the WGC Cadillac Championship on Sunday, he took 100 putts over four rounds (the lowest of his PGA Tour career) and made 27 birdies, one short of his career-high total, while he has now won 6 tournaments in the past 56 weeks – an average which is reminiscent of Woods in his heyday.

He’s clearly in excellent shape and comes into this a deserved favorite  but there are a lot of factors to put one off a punt at single figures. Woods’s tournament win rate has always been impressive – in due time he will pass the record of Sam Snead for professional wins – but the fact remains that he hasn't won a major since that US Open of 2008 and while he’s had excuses for some failures, his closing rounds when he’s been in with a chance – he was in contention for the Open until triple bogeying the 6^th which he had birdied for the past three rounds and was never able to conjure up the traditional charge that he’s famed for after getting into good positions in both the US Open and USPGA last year – are those of a man who’s failed to handle the unique pressure of majors.

The Masters is an exclusive field – ‘only’ 96 start due to the tournament’s unique invitation nature, far less than the average for most tournaments – but that’s a field of the very best from the get go and despite the stack of surprise winners in recent years, they've gone onto prove themselves as players of the highest quality since.

There’s the obvious argument that his class will just see him through and despite having no green jacket since 2005 he’s never failed to find form around Augusta - he’s finished inside the top-6 in six of the seven years since- but he was playing at least as well before last year’s tournament when no bigger than 13/2 and was never in with a proper shout, trailing in a dismal 41^st. His putting game has been incredible this season, but it’s yet to come under this kind of pressure and his preference for going from right to left – the opposite of this course’s setup – his relatively erratic driving (he ranks 145^th on the PGA Tour) and a price of only 9/2 – and that was shorter before this was written means that he lacks appeal.

Rory McIlroy is next best for many and arguably should have a Masters in his locker already – his score of 80 in 2011 costing him a certain win –and hit form at the right time with a second in Texas behind Martin Laird (who is readily available at very tempting triple figures if anyone wants him) following a much publicized loss of form with his switch to Nike equipment earlier in the season. He’s easily good enough to win, but his form over the course of the season has been far worse than Woods’s – he’s produced just three good rounds of gold so far this year – and even with two of them being the last he’s played, single figure prices – or even the inflated double figure prices - being offered this evening - time make no appeal.

Woods comes here as such a strong favorite with 4 titles to his name but Phil Mickleson’s (right) record is almost as good and it’s Lefty who makes the only appeal of ‘The big three’ at the head of the market to match Woods and claim a fourth green jacket this week. Mickleson's was just 16^th at the Houston Open and had then missed the cut at Bay Hill before that but simply comes alive around this course and cannot be ignored here. A winner in 2004, 2006 and 2010, he has 13 top-10 finishes, ten top 5 finishes, and an average of just around 70 which is sensational considering that he’s had 17 full masters tournaments, missing the cut in just one of them (all the way back in 1997).

Our selection last year for this, he was going swimmingly before hitting the bamboo at the at the fourth hole, triple bogeying the hole but still finishing in a tie for third, just two shots off a playoff. For the rest of the tournament he played the best golf going amongst anyone and one could well argue that he should have had a fourth green jacket, but Augusta National isn’t the toughest course in the world for nothing.

Phil The Thrill has expressed some worries about this being the first time in several years he’s come into the masters without having played in the week beforehand due to the lateness of this year’s tournament – normally he would go to Houston before coming here – but this year’s PGA setup meant that the last chance for a tuneup came in San Antonio at the Valero Texas Open, a course Mickleson said was too narrow and windy for any decent practice ahead of this week. The fact that he’s used the time to recce the course with Keegan Bradley and even play a round or two officially is very reassuring. His recent form hasn’t set the world alight and he’s had some trouble with his gripping issues this year, but he’s had plenty of time to work on it and has a game for this course like no other, so is a must bet even at prices at short at 11/1.

Speaking of course form at Augusta – and it is vital, with no debut winners since 1979 – Matt Kuchar’s impressive third here gave the impression that he had a Masters in him one day and the 34 year old now looks to be fulfilling the promise he’s always shown since his amateur days as a teenager – he tied for 21^st in 1998 and then was 14^th in the US Open of that year. Without a result of any note in a major until 2010 – since then his record reads, 24, 6, 27 10, 27, 14, cut, 19, 3, 27, 9 cut – Kuchar’s performances in the last three years have been of a player fast approaching his peak, tying for third here last year and then going onto win the Players Championship – seen by many as gold’s fifth major – by two strokes not too far afterwards. His first Golf Championship win in the Accenture serves to underline his big tournament temperament and the control he showed to drop shots on only four holes in his final three rounds last week bodes very well for this task and gives hope that he can compensate for his lack of length off the tee because everything else about his game is on top order.

Infact, there’s been a trend for fast maturing types to break their duck in the majority of recent majors - McIlroy, Keegan Bradley, Webb Simpson, Louis Oosthuizen, Schwartzel, Watson, Martin Kaymer are just a few recent examples – and Dustin Johnson (below) not only appeals as a player who is beginning to hit form at the right time but also one for whom a major has been coming for a long time.

 

A superb winner in Hawaii in the tournament of Champions to open his 2013, he went off the boil afterwards but has hit form since coming back to Florida, finishing twelfth at Doral and then coming fourth at Houston. His course form of finishes of 30-38-38 may not have set the world alight, but he’s gathered enough experience to know the course practically off by heart, is comfortable going either direction cutting the ball with his short game, and boats superb length (having been third in the driving distance stats for three consecutive years from 2009-11) off the tee as a staple feature of his game, and makes obvious appeal after fitting the identikit trends of a new champion.

Speaking of major Champions, a massive future was tipped for ferocious competitor Keegan Bradley when he landed the 2011 USGPA in Georgia, who has since gone onto prove himself in the beat of battle more than once, outfighting Kim Furyk to win the Bridgestone Invitational and then being one of the shining starts of the Ryder Cup even in defeat for the USA last summer – losing only his singles match to Rory McIlroy.

Fourth in the stats for Par 5 performance this year, Bradley has form figures of 4-7-3-10 in his last four starts (few in the field can boast better consistency this season) and while he was 27^th last year, that was on debut and the course experience he’s gleaned from then – as well as being in better form this time around, while sessions with Phil Mickleson should prove to be a tremendous help.

Another with strong course form is Hunter Mahan – his last four efforts read 8, 10, cut and 12^th – proving that he boasts the correct game for the course. He’s been a slow burner this season – form figures of 26, 15, 16, 16, 8, 2, 25 and 21 – and is a rock solid ball striker who pushed Kuchar all the way at the end of Febrary.

The above contenders are all well fancied, but in four of the last 6 years the winner has started a tripe figures and it’s impossible to leave out Bo Van Pelt (left) at huge prices. He’s nowhere near the form that he was in last year – he came into the tournament with 4 straight top 10’s – but the huge driving range he has make Augusta perfect for him and he was eighth in 2011 and 17^th last year. Rounds of rounds of 81, 79 and 78 are worrying, but the golf he produced when tying the Sunday record of 64 partly thanks to the hole in one he nailed on the sixteenth, and he has to be worth chancing this time around even to small stakes.

Europeans have struggled at this event, with no winners since 1997, but don’t let that put you off world number 3 Justin Rose, who has a find course record, has finished no worse than 32^nd this season and is crucially the fast starter this event demands; Nobody outside the top 10 at the end of the first day has won barring Tiger Woods and Phil Mickleson, and 4 of the first 6 at the end of the day 1 last year filled those places at the end of the week. Rose – who has four top-20 finishes in the last five years including a fifth place finish in 2008 and a top-10 finish last year – starts at the perfect time considering the harsh weather conditions forecast for the Afternoon, and if making haste, appeals to be first round leader at a general 16/1 and also to be top European in an event that can be so soften dominated by Americans, who head the challenge this year and should be backed in the winning nationality market.

Last but finally not least, in a heavy staking plan it makes no sense to leave out a South African or Australian, so Adam Scott – always effective around here and sure to win a major soon – and Charl Schwatrzel– the 2011 winner who has made the frame in eight of his last 11 strokeplay starts worldwide.

Advice – Finding the winner

3 pts each/way Phil Mickleson (11/1 Paddy Power, general)

1.5 pts each/way Matt Kuchar (35/1 Paddy Power, 40/1 Bwin)

1 pt each/way Dustin Johnson (18/1 Paddy Power, 30/1 general)

1 pt each/way Justin Rose (18/1 Paddy Power)

1 pt each/way Keegan Bradley (22/1 Paddy Power)

1 pt each/way Hunter Mahan (45/1 Paddy Power, 50/1 general)

1 pt each/way Bo Van Pelt (100/1 Paddy Power)

Advice – First Round Leader

1 pt each/way Justin Rose (16/1 general)

Advice – Top 10 finish

1 pt Bo Van Pelt (13/2 general)

2 pts Matt Kuchar (11/4 general)

1 pt Hunter Mahan (4/1 general)

Advice – Top 20 finish

2 pts Bo Van Pelt (5/2 general)

3 pts Adam Scott (8/11 Bet Victor)

3 pts Dustin Johnston (5/6 Bet Victor)

Advice – Top European

2 pts Justin Rose (5/1 Skybet)

Advice – Top rest of the world

1 pt Charl Schwatrzel (7/2 general)

Winning Nationality

15 pts American winner (8/11 general)

Course Guide: Augusta National is one of the most famous icons of sport – as the only course used year on year for a major - and is one of the most difficult, if not the most, difficult courses in golf. All but untouched since the early days – with lengthening to 7,435 yards today to combat the advancement of modern technologies in the game, it’s one of the fastest courses in the game with the speed on the greens being unrivalled and the lack of any proper rough (there is none) and generous fairways have landed themselves to big hitting power players of recent times. Of course there’s more to it than just that, but length off the tee has proven to be a massive advantage. Putting is essential for any tournament, but the lighting fast greens of Augusta combined with the layout make it extra essential here to be steady with the stick; The next most important factor is having a world class tee to green game. On such an open, undulating course, finding the best spots from which to putt from the greens can be the difference between winning and losing. Upon such a demanding course, opportunities can be few and far between so the importance of the par 5’s is magnified starkly when one looks their difficultly according to previous tournaments; ‘Pink Dogwood’ (2) is the 16th hardest hole, ‘Yellow Jasmine’ (8) just one higher, Azalea (13) is the 17th hardest, and ‘Fire Thorn’ (15) is the 18th. This is emphasized by the fact that in Phil Mickelson’s second title, he was -13 for Par 5’s and +6 for shorter, while Zach Johnson’s stats are similar. In short, par 5 performance is vital.