England’s test campaign in a year which features back to
back Ashes series starts in New Zealand tonight with a three test series, that
on paper looks like a serious mismatch. Of
their last eight home series against top-seven ranked international sides (basically,
with the best of respect, of Bangladesh or Zimbabwe), New Zealand have failed
to win. That sequence stretches back to December 2006. Of their last 18 series,
home and away, with the same criteria they have not won once. England are the
second best side in the world based on the ICC rankings, and in the last they
years they’ve won 20 of 35 tests, with their defeats coming against sides at
least two spots clear of New Zealand at
the team of writing or the time of playing.
The Black Caps – more proficient in shorter forms of the
game – would have hoped to snatch either of the ODI or T20 series, but found
themselves losing both fair and square, and with England twice the team over
this longer format, a price of 2/7 cannot be argued with. The value looks to be
in the correct score betting, and while a whitewash is tempting, the volatile
weather here restricted South Africa – a very similar side to England - to just
the 1-0 win here, which is the only reason 3-0 isn’t the banker bet it seems.
It’s tempting to go all in on 2-0, but if the weather holds I can’t see
anything but heavy defeat for the black caps, so the series handicap of a 1
test start (meaning England have to win either 2 or 3-0) looks to be the safer
option at 8/11 with Bet365. Take the same firm’s 5/6 that Alistair Cook can
score more than 230 runs in the three tests. Dunedin isn’t meant to be kind to
openers but Cook is a different breed and should have more than enough success
throughought the series.
Advice
4 pts England -1.5 on Series H’Cap (8/11 Bet365)
2 pts Alistair Cook to score 231 or more runs (5/6 Bet365)
1 pt England to win series 2-0 (9/4 Ladbrokes)
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