Summer Tests 2014 - New Zealand v England, 1st Test (Eden Park)

England’s progress from the ashes of the last, disastrous World Cup to being arguably the world’s most progressive side ahead of their 2015 host bid, has bee nothing short of remarkable but Stuart Lancaster faces his toughest test when he sends a much changed and injury ravaged team to Eden Park for the ultimate challenge in rugby union; New Zealand in their own backyard.

At the end of an impressive 6 nations, one they will feel unlucky not to have won given their manic final minutes against France, England could have come with realistic hopes of pushing New Zealand extremely close based on meetings between the two at Twickenham - Of the last four contests, England have won one and lost the other three by decreasing margins of 13, 10 and eight points -but poor scheduling and inopportune injury at the end of a brutal Premiership season have left Lancaster with just 6 of the side that routed Italy on the final day.

Jet lag protocols and a lack of preparation time meant that the players who were involved in the Premiership final on 31^st May were never going to be involved and unfortunately Saracens and Northampton, who have been so dominant for the season, holding large English compliments, were always likely to play against eachother on the final. This means no Owen Farrell, brothers Billy and Mako Vunipola, Dylan Hartley, Alex Corbisero and Courtney Lawes, all key components of the England squad and even more crucially the heart of the pack that has proven so instrumental in their own success over the past two years.

Danny Care’s freak accident in training robs them of the best halfback pairing they’ve had for a good few seasons, and although Mike Brown is thankfully fit and ready, neither of his backups are available.  Freddie Burns has a golden opportunity at flyhalf but has had a poor season for Gloucester and does not look the player he once threatened to be and while the same does not quite apply to Ben Youngs at halfback, the impetus of Care is a severe loss.

New Zealand too have had some injury blows – notably losing Julian Savea, who has a fine try-scoring record against England – and also crucially Kieran Read, the IRB’s world player of the year last season, who has scored in his last three against England. However as one would expect the strength in depth is unrivalled and Jerome Kaino - having surged back to the jersey after a superb season for the Blues - while not bringing the same width, applies a power game that will prove very hard to match. In the backs, Cory Jane is a more than adapt replacement for the explosive Savea.

 

Otherwise, this is much of the same New Zealand side that won the World Cup on home soil and given a points average of 36.2 so far compared to Australia (32.6) and South Africa (29.6) and the continuity of a backline and backrow that is mostly very familiar with each-other – Cruden and Smith have been the halfback pairing for a good while, while Nonu and Smith’s knowledge of eachother is a massive defensive test for Tuilagi and Eastmond to cope with.

It feels disappointing to be writing England off prematurely but New Zealand have not lot at home since 2009 and the continuity upset may tip this from heavy defeat into a rout. A handicap of 21 is the accepted margin and hard to argue with – despite New Zealand’s sometimes slow start to test series’ in the summer – but it may pay to support them on the second half handicap. They have won every single second half since the beginning of the rugby championship and a mark of 11 may be achievable after the break with continuity working in their favour; A 21-30 point winning margin seems reasonable enough.

Advice

1 pt New Zealand to win by 21-30 points (13/5 general)

1 pt New Zealand -11 on second half handicap (10/11 Coral)