Grand National 2013

4.15 Aintree

John Smith's Grand National Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1)  (7YO plus)

Winner £547,268

Advice: 2 pts each/way On His Own (11/1 Betvictor),1 pt each/way Sunnyhillboy (20/1 Bet Victor, 22/1 general), Cappa Bleu (11/1 Bet Victor, 12/1 general) Join Together (22/1 Bet Victor)

Imperial Commander: Best known for winning epic renewal of 2010 Gold Cup but injured when trying to retain title a year later; Magnificent comeback run in preparation for another crack at blue riband when only just gubbed on the line in Argento Chase before old troubles made him miss big target; This might not have been long term target but always shaped as if he’d enjoy a test like this and layoffs have dropped him to mark of 158, which is very lenient for one with his class; Strongly considered.

What A Friend: Grade 1 winner over the Mildmay fences in 2010 (that was his last win) and fourth in the 2011 Gold Cup in a style which suggested that he’d enjoy this test, although presumably feeling the effects when puled up in that year’s Grand National; Talent to make a big challenge and this been his aim this year (slowly making headway when bad blunder 6 out ended his chances in the Racing Plus Chase) but others preferred and just as liable to chuck it all in as well.

Weird Al: High class chaser at his best but not the robust type he was as a novice chaser and no win since smooth success in Charlie Hall Chase (that in October 2011); Not totally out of things when falling last year but he was weakening and took a tired looking fall; Better choices out here.

Quel Esprit: Very talented chaser (jumped neatly and kept on giving when winning Grade 1 from the front in Febuary 2012) but that a weak Grade 1 chase for the level and get the feeling that he needs to dominate to be seen at his best, which he won’t get here unless cutting throat with other.

Big Fella Thanks: As good a horse as you’ll find to give you a run for your money, but looked a non stayer when beaten in 2009, 10 and 11, never getting closer than 23 lenghts to the winner on each occasion; In fine form as ever for new yard and competed on each and every try over this course, but likely to be found wanting once again on that front.

Seabass: Terrific hot streak of seven wins in a row from hunter chases to major handicaps last year, and career best when third in last year’s race, always in the van and looking as if he could win for just one second after hitting the front after jumping the last; This (predictably) been target since, returning over hurdles at 2m and then encouraging in Bobbjyjo; Struggle to find stronger chance in the field even if he is 5lbs higher than last year and will go close.

Roberto Goldback: Grade 1 winner for Jessie Harrington (won odd renewal of Guinness Gold Cup) who was bought exclusively for this purpose at end of last season and looked a real contender after his deeply impressive Ascot win on debut for that stable; Hasn’t recaptured that form since but staying on at Kempton and will stay the trip well; Trainer also in form of his life and worse choice that could make.

Sunnyhillboy: Always shaped as if he had major staying handicap in him when third in Irish National of 2011 and followed up Kim Muir romp at last year’s Festival when going down by a nose to Neptune Collonges last year; Only had the two hurdling runs since so no proof he’s in the same form and 10lbs higher but he’d have been a convincing winner otherwise so that deserved and plenty going for him once again today; Must be considered.

Ballabriggs: 2011 Winner of this when beating Oscar Time (also here) and then sixth in last year’s renewal when up 10lbs; Should get around again and another pleasing race when third in Kelso contest he’s always used as a prep (beaten furthest distance in his three attempt); Each/way case to be made but hard to see him winning.

Teaforthree: Seemingly the very definition of ‘National horse’ for some time, impressive when justifying favouritism in National Hunt Chase at last year’s Cheltenham Festival and then beaten less than a length in Welsh National this season; Perfect for this on that basis but so, so disappointing in Grand National trial at Haydock when the same ground which he’s revelled in before was balmed for lifeless run; That disconcerting, but strong chance otherwise.

Across The Bay: Could never land a blow in Welsh National but wind op may have helped him and before that he was really impressive when second in Listed contest over Mildmay course (heavy) and superb Grade 2 win over hurdles is very encouraging sign for this; One of the better outsiders.

Join Together: Promising novice chaser last season, wide margin winner at Cheltenham and then disappointing at spring festivals but always one for marathon distances and Becher Chase second when attempting to give a stone and 4lbs to veteran Hello Bud was a proper test of credentials for event like this and he was only closing as race went on; Prep race was disaster (hampered beyond point of continuing) but one of the few in this field that is genuinely unexposed for a marathon trip and has to be respected.

Colbert Station: Hugely assured performance for one having just his fifth chase start when romping home with Paddy Power Chase at Christmas and impressive when taking advantage of difference between chasing and hurdling marks at Punchestown latest and needs respecting for yard that has current favorite and third last year.

Forpadydeplaster: Arkle winner of 2009 who then became most famous runner up in training over 2m; First win since in November 2012 at 3m (non-handicap) but worry that he’ll fold in stamina terms early on here.

On His Own: Only had the 11 starts under rules which may put some off but got to have more to give and showed tremendous aptitude for big handicaps when destroying field in 2011 Thyestes Chase, one of Ireland’s most used trials for this; Going swimmingly until he got checked just before Becher’s and couldn’t adjust before takeoff last year, and while it’s impossible to know if he’d have stayed/how he’d have gotten on, gave impression at Gowran that this trip would have been no problem for him; Not jumped a fence in public since but few better handicapped than him (mark unchanged) and Grade 2 hurdles win all we need to see for wellbeing; Few have better chances.

Joncol: Tremendous chaser in his prime (two to three seasons ago) who won John Durkan in tremendous style and then followed up in Hennessy Gold Cup in same season; Always a danger that horse as big as him would be tricky to look after and it’s proven with tendon trouble; Shaped like stayer for long time and this trip shouldn’t be a problem but worry whether this ideal target for him.

Balthazar King: Plenty of encouragement for this task when breaking Irish monopoly on Cheltenham cross country at Cheltenham Festival and upped his game just that little bit for 3m handicap chase over regulation fences; Needs the ground rattling so previous effort in second at Cheltenham an acceptable one and should go well from front here.

Cappa Bleu: Nothing was finishing better when fourth in this last year, well into beaten 12 lengths (did well considering that he was hampered badly by Alfa Beat’s fall at seventh); One would hope that he’s a little closer to the pace this time (held back even with that hampering last year), but now 2lbs lower combined with better prep run (beaten two lengths instead of 4, albeit with less troubled run) and must be on anyone’s shortlist.

Oscar Time: Looked a sure fire national contender for years to come when second to Ballabriggs in 2011 but only the 5 runs since and none of them suggested he was still progressing and missed nearly all of last season and maybe best to look elsewhere.

Always Waining: Already famous for his exploits over National fences, coming out a three time winner of Topham in last three years (never stronger than at the end of the race on all three occasions); Not shown much over distances much longer than that but Becher Chase fourth, albeit remote, shows he can be staying chaser; This different matter, but can’t be ruled out altogether.

Tatenen: One time Arkle favourite who didn’t make it at the top level over 2m and lost form until handicap mark and age combined to give him perfect situation in 2m5 Ascot handicap chase which he won for two years running; Unseated at 8^th last year but stamina still an issue and others make more appeal.

Treacle: Very eyecatching last year coming into this when he was staying on second in Paddy Power Handicap Chase and then third in Grade 1 behind Quel Esprit (flattered but still had plenty going for him on that basis); Never got a clear run at any stage last year, hampered at the fifth and then falling at the tenth, and way in which he won 5 runner event over 3m2f five weeks ago very encouraging; Worse outsiders to choose.

Lost Glory: Made it 5-9 as a chaser when always going well and strong at the finish when fairly clear cut winner at Chepstow when last seen; Kept fresh (last ran October 2012) for this but very much a harder task and other outsiders.

Swing Bill: Has gotten around in all four starts over these fences and followed up his repeat win in Cheltenham Amateurs Chase with fourth in Becher Chase (just behind Join Together); Will go well if able to repeat that and subsequent Doncaster 4^th but beaten 55 lengths into tenth last year and more needed.

Saint Are: Plenty of promise as stayer when he won Grade 1 here as novice hurdler and again when landing handicap chase that precedes this event last year; Fine stayer and good run at Ascot but well behind Cappa Bleu on that occasion and hit a few fences on his way round last twice.

Chicago Grey: Always shaped like horse who’s threatened to land a big staying handicap chase and ended fantastic novice chase season when impressive at Cheltenham in 4 miler of 2011; Bought down at the fifth last year in this when it had clearly been the plan but 7lbs lower today and comes here off the back of 2m4f graded win (first after wind operation), so obvious chance for 2007’s winning yard and few better weighted.

Quiscover Fontaine: Made up a lot of ground when fourth in the Irish National and  mark has barely changed since thanks to runs over hurdles at two miles behind when he fell at the first fence second time round last year, but not out of it at that point and mark clearly kept for this; Potential.

Rare Bob: Classy sort – once fourth in Drinmore Chase and then Irish National of 2008 – who has since continued to give his best in long distance chases (completed around here in Becher Chase behind West End Rocker); Bought down when a 40/1 shot for last year but now 6lbs lower than that and coming back in better form, officially 9lbs better off with Seabass at the weights for their Fairyhouse meeting; Has to be given a chance.

The Rainbow Hunter: Unraced at 3m2f but stayed 3m well and finishing strongly behind Cappa Bleu and Saint Are latest; Not a forlorn hope on that form (well in with those two) although he simply has to better over his fences than he was last time and don’t know how he’ll take to 4m4f; Interesting.

Becauseicouldn’tsee: Always had big staying race in him (runner up to Poker De Sivola in National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham a while back, runner up effort to Majestic Concorde in Paddy Power Chase also reads well now); Only fifth in Kim Muir at Cheltenham latest but that may have been a warm up and could go well for long way.

Harry The Viking: Shown very little for majority of this season, indeed, failed to place since his second to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase but that form would make him no better than a 20/1 shot on market evidence; Needs to show much more today but could be ignited by this course and deserves at least a little respect.

Mr Moonshine: As likeable a horse as you’re likely to find but only one effort this term reads well and it leaves him a long way behind Imperial Commander on a line through Cape Tribulation; Also previously below his best in the spring too and limited appeal for today.

Mumbles Head: Shaped as if 4m would be in his compass when landing small contest over 3m3f over hurdles, but weak at the finish in Veterans handicap chase here and also in long distance chase at Uttoexeter last summer; Others appeal more on stamina grounds.

Ninetieth Minute: Once a very useful hurdler who won Coral Cup; Now plies his trade in staying chases, and encouraging effort when third at Punchestown last year but well behind Treacle latest and others make more appeal even with weight turnaround.

Auroras Encore: One effort that gives hope for this would be his head second in the Scottish National (now 6lbs lower) and now on a lower mark despite showing signs of promise over long trips (ground possibly a little softer than he’d have wanted it) so not without his chances, for all jumping can be edgy at times.

Tarquinius: Been largely ignored with stable also having first rate chance with Chicago Grey but this one has been on a roll of his own and wouldn’t be 100/1 if he hadn’t flopped in Leinster National last time out, and only just failed to land Thyestes Chase (3m, heavy) the time before that; Potentially the best of the outsiders.

Any Currency: Done nothing but stay since an early age (went handicapping pretty much as soon as he was jumping) and always shaped as if he’d relish marathon trip on countless occasions; Going well in Becher Chase when coming down here and would be one of the first to get round, but wonder if he might get himself too far behind for this.

Major Malarkey: Should stay, as he was good second in the Midlands National of last year over 4m1f, but not put in a show as good since and doesn’t make the same appeal as others.

Soll: Former Willie Mullins charge who was sent off just 8/1 for the 4m National Hunt Chase won by Teaforthree last year after dour staying wins on heavy ground; Well held in Hennessy and Welsh National but took advantage of small field and heavy ground to win well at Sandown latest; Lightly races, promises to stay and can still improve.

Viking Blond: Another one of those who’s always shaped like he’d stay this trip, although more often than not that was when relishing heavy ground at distances upto and including 3m5f; Pulled up in Wels national but before that he’d run Monbeg Dude close and that form gives him chance; Plausible for big run despite falling a first last year.

VERDICT: The biggest betting race of the year but any result would be an acceptable one as long as all horses and jockeys return safely. The new handicap methods employed by Phil Smith have made for extremely competitive renewals and it’s impossible – as it should be in the National – to completely rule anything out. In the build up towards this year’s race, many have pinpointed ON HIS OWN as being too short for such a test but the battle for betting audiences has pushed him out to a more than acceptable price and in any case, he’s tremendously hard to fault. Cantering when falling at Becher’s last year (through little fault of his own), the fact that he’s not jumped a fence in Public since may put some off but a mark of 148 means the handicapper has had no impact and he’s always shaped as if a test like this would be the making of him. Wether value or not, he must go close, and Bet Victor’s 11/1 with 6 places (1/4 the odds) can’t be passed up. Last year’s third Seabass is impossible to fault barring a 5lbs rise in the handicap but in any case that seems more than fair enough for what he achieved and he should go well once again, but SUNNYHILLBOY was by far the stronger at the end of last year when beaten just a nose into second (hed’ have been a clear winner otherwise) and while he’s not shown anything since, a 10lbs rise is still very fair and there’s no reason why he can’t be on the premises again, or as big as 25/1 for a yard that has had much success in this race. Potentially the best handicapped horse from last year is CAPPA BLEU, and if it’s taken on trust that he wasn’t so far behind by choice last year (badly hampered), then nothing was finishing better ad he looks to be a solid addition to the portfolio. Of several that are well fancied, Chicago Grey, Teaforthree and Colbert Station are three horses with fine chances, but none of them promise to improve for this marathon test quite like JOIN TOGETHER, who would be an awful lot shorter had he not pulled up in the Grimthope when hampered so badly there was no point carrying on, but is best remembered for his Becher Chase effort beforehand and considering his yard’s record in the National – had been knocking on the door for a long time before winning last year’s renewal – it’s surprising to see him available at 25/1 for this. Best of the outsiders looks to be Tarquinis – who wouldn’t be so big had it not been for a poor run last time in the Leinster National.