It’s unthinkable for most football fans to think of
Barcelona in the UEFA Cup but that’s the situation we have in the Challenge Cup
with Leinster having dropped down from the top tier and they can march into the
semi finals at the expensive of Wasps tonight in what could be called the
marquee tie of the Challenge Cup quarter finals.
It’s worth remembering that Leinster probably would be here
if they had drawn any other side than tournament favourites Clermont (second
only to Toulon in the top 14 and unbeaten in 54 home games) and in their pool
stage, but losing both games to the French giants meant that they missed out,
although it was only due to tries scored – they were only able to notch 12 to
Munster’s 14 – that they missed out on the last quarter final place by a
whisker in what was undoubtedly a stronger pool.
Harangued by some notable injuries to first choice backline
members earlier in the season, Leinster have hit a rich vein of form since the
Christmas period – their losses to Ulster being the only defeats they’ve
suffered between December and March in the Pro 12, winning all of their other
games in good style. Admittedly their
18-22 loss to Leinster wasn’t the ideal preparation but it took and exceptional
effort to stop the intense late pressure that they put on and their come from
behind effort agiainst Glasgow before was deeply impressive.
Centre Brian O’Driscoll is suspendered thanks to his 6
Nations citation but otherwise this will be as close to full strength side as
Leinster can put out – Gordon D’Arcy will return to the centres while Sean
O’Brien will partner Jamie Heaslip in the backrow.
Wasps have been one of the most exciting clubs to watch in
Europe this season with a ‘run at all costs’ attitude endearing them to so many
in the Premiership. Their backline of Christian Wade, Tom Varndell, Andrea Masi
and Edlliot Daly has given trouble to every side in the Premiership and led to
them topping their pool in good style, but in Leinster they face a side which
is a cut above and their struggles against the English elite are well noted.
They were unbeaten at Adams Park until two weeks ago but both Northampton and
Saracens were able to subdue Wasps and dominate late on in their own
distinctive style, and Leinster are at least as strong in both their pack and
in backline talents, with Ian Madigan having scored all of Leinster’s points in
their last two games. A handicap of 4 points is more than surpassable –
although given how Wasps have faded in the second half of their games the
second half handicap of just 2 points is extremely tempting – by a victory by
1-12 points looks the best margin. Leinster won two of their away games in the
Heineken by 7 and 9 points this season, and they won two of their away games in
last season’s competition by 5 and 7 points; Those who don’t want the handicap
should go for Leinster to score more than 23 points, which looks very
achieveable.
In the night’s other game, Perpignan are heavy favourites to
beat Heineken Cup dropouts Toulouse at home. Ask your average fan which side is
better and there would only be one answer but Toulouse haven’t been the best of
travellers in Europe – They’ve lost at Gloucester, Edinburgh, Ospreys and
Leicester and beaten Treviso (after trailing by 9 points at halftime) - and Guy
Noves has started that this tournament is not a proirty for him. A handicap of
5 points for the home side is fair but even a Toulouse side without many stars
can field a backline with Medard, Matanvou, Fritz, Fickou, Beauxis and Burgess
and they should be able to stay in 12 points in a losing cuase.
Advice
3 pts Leinster to win by 1-12 points (6/4 general)
1 pt Perpignan to win by 1-12 points (6/4 general)
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