Barcelona start these quarter finals as favourites for the
Champions League and they should feel confident about having enough to best
relative newcomers PSG over two quarter final legs, but those considering
tonight’s affair a done deal may be in for a surprise. Just before Barcelona’s
2-0 defeat against AC Milan – a result so significant that Milan were no better
than 4/6 to see it through over two legs – we wrote about Barcelona’s record on
the road in the last 16 and the knockout stages of the Champions League in
general; ‘In the last 5 seasons Barcelona have reached 3 semi-finals and gone
onto win the competition twice, and in their Last 16 away tie they have won
just twice – one of those being against Celtic all the way back in 2007/08,
while Bayer Leverkusen were soundly beaten 3-1 but were easily the weakest
challenge they’d faced on paper in the last 16 since their famed run of success
in the completion started in 2006’.
For those who want a bigger picture, Barcelona have played
14 knockout games on the road in Europe in the last 5 years and have won only
three of them; Celtic in 2007/08, Shaktar Donestk in 2011, and Leverkusen last
year, with six draws and four losses in that period.
On paper at the very least, PSG are at least the equal of
most opposition and far superior to two of the three teams that Barcelona beat
– Shaktar’s loss came when the tie had been done and dusted before the second
leg – and pose a major threat tonight. The subject of much attention when
Qatari investors took over the club little more than 18 months ago, PSG are
unrecognisable from the team that played second fiddle to figures such as Lyon
and Bordeaux through the mid noughties and while they’ve taken a good while to
fight off opposition from Marsellie and Lyon in the French league this season
they’re now 7 points clear and have improved as the new talent has been bought
in by the bucketload – their 2-1 win at Valencia was one of their best
performances this season even if their 1-1 draw at home in the second leg was less
impressive.
The value in a PSG win has gone – they’re now just a best
price of 7/2 – but they’ve had 6 draws during that period and at 11/4 that
might be the value choice of the match outcomes – while the odds against on the
double chance also make appeal. Barcelona have conceded in 15 of their last 17
games in all competitions stretching back to mid-January, and while PSG have
one of the best defensive records in the competition, both Porto and Valencia
were always threatening the goal in Paris and 7/10 on both teams to score or
the 1-1 draw (Bet Victor will refund upto £10 on a losing bet for next week's game and are best priced about this eventuality at 15/2) might be the best outcome. In terms of the specials, the 4/6 on
over 65& possession must appeal towards specialist punters – only once have
Barcelona averaged less than that number in the whole tournament and PSG aren’t
known for dominating in midfield.
Advice
1 pt Draw (11/4 general)
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