Wednesday, 24 April 2013

Champions League Semi Final - Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid


After yesterday’s spectacular show of dominance by Bayern Munich over Barcelona some might say that tonight’s semi final between the other German and Spainish football superpowers in Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid has a lot to live upto, but if their two seasons so far are anything to go by then we’re in for a real treat.

Real Madrid’s season has been blighted on a domestic level by infighting, inconsistency and complacency which leaves them 13 points behind Barcelona with just six games left but from day 1 the target for the season has been to make history by winning a record tenth European Cup and a first in 10 years.

That hasn’t prevented them from scoring 83 goals – some way behind the record breaking efforts of Barcelona but still very impressive nonetheless – on the domestic stage, while this is the third straight year in succession that they’ve reached the semi finals under the guidance of Jose Mourinhio. That said, their passage to the last 4 hasn’t been all smooth sailing

Dortmund, who come here as the only unbeaten team in the tournament and are playing under the tense and slightly bizarre circumstances of having announced Mario Gotze to rivals and likely finalists Bayern Munich, actually beat Madrid to the top of Group D earlier in the season and would have gone through it been a knockout situation, winning 2-1 here before only being denied the points thanks to a last minute Mesut Ozil free kick at the Bernabeu.

There’s a school of thought for thinking that Madrid are much better now than during the group stages – they’ve won 11 of their last 13 games – but the one contentious issue for those who are invested upon them tonight is the one thing that has blighted them all season – their dreadful away record.

Winners of just one of their 24 games in Germany, Madrid have won just half of their away games in La Liga this season and have a poor away record under Jose Mournihio in Europe, winning only 9 of their 17 trips in this competition since he took charge; This season they’ve had serious problems too, winning just two times on the road this season – against bottom of their group Ajax, and against Manchester United when Nani’s red card turned a game that was fast slipping away from them on it’s head, and what should have been a stroll against Galatasaray turned into a helter skelter finish in the quarter finals after a second half near collapse.

Dortmund need a serious slice of fortune to slide past Malaga in the quarter finals – although anyone who watched the opening contest will know that it should have been over long before it started – and have surrendered their title in weak fashion to Bayern this season, but they’ve hit a fine streak of form in their bid for Champions League glory, winning their last 6 games, and have the best home record in the completion with 5 wins from 5 games, and they’ve won 8 from 13 games played here so far. With previous form against Madrid, and full side, and no other distractions, this is their finest chance at such a big opportunity and the 10/1 on a repeat of their 2-1 win last year seems too big, with the home win making appeal at 17/10 – those who want even more value can consider a home win by one goal.

Advice

1 pt Borussia Dortmund (17/10 general)

1 pt 2-1 Borussia Dortmund (10/1 Bet Victor) 

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