For the last 5 years, it has
been generally accepted that Barcelona are the best club side in world football
and one of the great sides of recent times, if not one of the best in history. In
a period encompassing 2008 to the present day, they have won the Champions
League three times, and never failed to make the semis in that wonderful run.
Beaten just twice over the two legs of knockout football in that time, it’s
fair to say that Barcelona have been the team that all others are judged by.
They say that football runs in cycles, but cruising to a fifth La Liga crown
since Guardiola took over, the Catalans have at time looked as strong, if not
stronger, than ever, despite their elimination from the Copa Del Rey at the
hands of Madrid.
In two of the years that
Barcelona have failed to win the title, Bayern Munich have made the final and
lost, but this year they look to be playing at an even higher level to avenge
those agonising defeat than in either of the years beforehand and their
meteoric brilliance throughought this season has impressed so many that they go
into their semi final first leg against Barcelona as clear favourites to take a
lead to Catalonia next week.
Before their 2-0 defeat
against AC Milan in the last 16 first leg, and their 2-2 draw against PSG in
the quarter final, we wrote about Barcelona’s away record here and in the
toughest test they’ve faced this season – arguably either at Europe or home –
it’s worth bringing up once again.
In the last 5 seasons
Barcelona have reached 3 semi-finals and gone onto win the competition twice,
and in their Last 16 away tiesthey have won just twice – one of those being
against Celtic all the way back in 2007/08, while Bayer Leverkusen were soundly
beaten 3-1 but were easily the weakest challenge they’d faced on paper in the
last 16 since their famed run of success in the completion started in 2006.
For those who want a bigger
picture, Barcelona have played 14 knockout games on the road in Europe in the
last 5 years and have won only three of them; Celtic in 2007/08, Shaktar
Donestk in 2011, and Leverkusen last year, with six draws and four losses in that
period. Bayern Munich are on a different planet to that trio, and in any case
already boast a fearsome home record in Europe – they were unbeaten at home
last year in their run to the final and have won 17 of their last 20 Champions
League games played at the Allianz Arena.
Having won 19 of their last
20 games, this Bayern side have smashed the record book again and again this
season. No side has gained more than 81 points, had more than 19 clean sheets,
or more than their 26 Bundesliga games (there are still four left). Their only blip in the competition this
season at home has been their 2-0 defeat to Arsenal, but that came due to a
level of complacency which will not be tolerated again and the way they totally
dismantled an excellent Juventus side 2-0 both home and away was one of the
performances of the season.
In the aftermath of the draw
Jupp Henyckes’s men we 13/8 to take a lead to Spain and that was a fair price
but a massive gamble now leaves them as even money shots. They could well
justify those prices but Barcelona haven’t been this big before a game in this
current decade and those prices are well worth a second look, for all their record
on foreign soil means they’re unbackable even at those prices. A 2-1 home win –
both teams have scored in 6 of Bayern’s games this season’s Champions League –
makes the most appeal, while over 2.5 goals is tempting given the amount of
loose encounters Barcelona – who can be relied upon to press and attack in the
style that has bought them so much success – have been involved in on the road.
Munich are also 16/5 to win by a single goal with 888sport, worthy of serious
consideration when taking into account the class of the two teams and a bet offering
far more value than the odds on for a Munich win.
Advice
1 pt 2-1 Bayern Munich (17/2
Bet Victor, Hills)
1 pt Bayern Munich to win by
one goal (16/5 888Sport)
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