Tuesday, 23 April 2013

Champions League Semi Final: Bayern Munich v Barcelona


For the last 5 years, it has been generally accepted that Barcelona are the best club side in world football and one of the great sides of recent times, if not one of the best in history. In a period encompassing 2008 to the present day, they have won the Champions League three times, and never failed to make the semis in that wonderful run. Beaten just twice over the two legs of knockout football in that time, it’s fair to say that Barcelona have been the team that all others are judged by. They say that football runs in cycles, but cruising to a fifth La Liga crown since Guardiola took over, the Catalans have at time looked as strong, if not stronger, than ever, despite their elimination from the Copa Del Rey at the hands of Madrid.


In two of the years that Barcelona have failed to win the title, Bayern Munich have made the final and lost, but this year they look to be playing at an even higher level to avenge those agonising defeat than in either of the years beforehand and their meteoric brilliance throughought this season has impressed so many that they go into their semi final first leg against Barcelona as clear favourites to take a lead to Catalonia next week.


Before their 2-0 defeat against AC Milan in the last 16 first leg, and their 2-2 draw against PSG in the quarter final, we wrote about Barcelona’s away record here and in the toughest test they’ve faced this season – arguably either at Europe or home – it’s worth bringing up once again.


In the last 5 seasons Barcelona have reached 3 semi-finals and gone onto win the competition twice, and in their Last 16 away tiesthey have won just twice – one of those being against Celtic all the way back in 2007/08, while Bayer Leverkusen were soundly beaten 3-1 but were easily the weakest challenge they’d faced on paper in the last 16 since their famed run of success in the completion started in 2006.


For those who want a bigger picture, Barcelona have played 14 knockout games on the road in Europe in the last 5 years and have won only three of them; Celtic in 2007/08, Shaktar Donestk in 2011, and Leverkusen last year, with six draws and four losses in that period. Bayern Munich are on a different planet to that trio, and in any case already boast a fearsome home record in Europe – they were unbeaten at home last year in their run to the final and have won 17 of their last 20 Champions League games played at the Allianz Arena.

 
Having won 19 of their last 20 games, this Bayern side have smashed the record book again and again this season. No side has gained more than 81 points, had more than 19 clean sheets, or more than their 26 Bundesliga games (there are still four left).  Their only blip in the competition this season at home has been their 2-0 defeat to Arsenal, but that came due to a level of complacency which will not be tolerated again and the way they totally dismantled an excellent Juventus side 2-0 both home and away was one of the performances of the season.


In the aftermath of the draw Jupp Henyckes’s men we 13/8 to take a lead to Spain and that was a fair price but a massive gamble now leaves them as even money shots. They could well justify those prices but Barcelona haven’t been this big before a game in this current decade and those prices are well worth a second look, for all their record on foreign soil means they’re unbackable even at those prices. A 2-1 home win – both teams have scored in 6 of Bayern’s games this season’s Champions League – makes the most appeal, while over 2.5 goals is tempting given the amount of loose encounters Barcelona – who can be relied upon to press and attack in the style that has bought them so much success – have been involved in on the road. Munich are also 16/5 to win by a single goal with 888sport, worthy of serious consideration when taking into account the class of the two teams and a bet offering far more value than the odds on for a Munich win.


Advice

1 pt 2-1 Bayern Munich (17/2 Bet Victor, Hills)

1 pt Bayern Munich to win by one goal (16/5 888Sport) 

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