The saying is that ‘an unstoppable force can’t push an
immovable object’ and when Bayern Munich and Juventus meet in what is surely the
marquee tie of the Champions League quarter finals, the easiest call to make is
that the game will take an awful lot of winning.
When the second of AC Milan’s two goals went in in the last
16 Bayern Munich were actually favorites to win the competition for about a
week and a half and they’re still seen as the biggest threat to the Spanish big
two by some margin – you can get no better than 6/5 for them to be the best
team without the big two and they’re a best price of 9/2 to take the trophy – which
probably explains why they’re a best
price of 4/6 to win tonight’s first leg and a best price of 4/7 to make it to
what would be their third semi-final in the last four years.
And those quits are entirely understandable too when one
looks at most of their form this season; Thy lie 20 points clear of Borussia
Dortmund (themselves fellow quarter finalists, group winners and also no better
than fourth favourites to win the competition), having scored 78 goals and even
more remarkably, conceded just 13 – all of this in just 27 league games – and while
they didn’t win their group outright, their 3-1 demotion of Arsenal at the Emirates
was a stark reminder to the rest of Europe of the levels they can reach. Yes,
they lost the second leg 2-0 but far too much was made of that defeat in a game
which was already won in the minds of the Bavarians even after Oliver Giroud’s
early goal.
As impressive as they’ve been, Juventus will be another
matter altogether. Comfortably the best
team Bayern have faced in the Champions League this season – or this season
based on what you think of the respective merits of Serie A and the Bundesliga –
Juventus haven’t lost a Champions League game or conceded a goal in this
competition since their 1-1 draw against Nordsjelland in October, and they have
the best defensive record in the competition with just 4 goals in total conceded.
While a 5-0 aggregate thrashing of Celtic was to be expected in hindsight, the
way they ruthlessly dispatched the Scots with the limited chances they bothered
to create at Parkhead was deeply impressive and it’s worth remembering that
this side came away from trips to Shaktar Donetsk and Chelsea – who had won
their previous 5 home games in the competitions including a 1-0 defeat of
Barcelona –with positive results and they've lost just 3 games in the league this
season.
Bayern have won 17 of their last 19 home games in the
Champions League and will be a tougher test than both of those tasks but there’s
every reason to believe that they’re far too short for tonight based on two of
football’s most misleading factors; Reputation and visual impression. Their 9-2
thrashing of Hamburg at the weekend was as good as football gets but tonight
will be very different against one of the world’s best defensive units and
Bayern have been frustrated at times by teams who either sit deep or crowd
their midfield – Juve are likely to play 6 in that area to stifle and hassle
Kroos, Pizzaro and Schweinsteiger – and there’s a feeling that without early domination
or a goal to back it up, the longer the game is level the more pressure the
hosts will have on them to influence proceedings at a pace not suited towards
them, which will play into the hands of one of the finest counter attacking teams
in Europe. A win might be too much to ask for but Juve have lost just 4 games
this season and all of those defeats came by just a goal, so the +1 option on
the Asian handicap (you’d have to see Juve lost by two to lose) offers far more
value than the home win.
Advice
4 pts Juventus +1 on Asian Handicap (9/10 188Bet)
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