Ten To Follow 2013

The jumps season ended properly with a fantastic Punchestown last week – very much the end of a golden 40 day period in racing for those who enjoy jumping - and we can now look forward to the flat fully, despite what the fixture list might say.

We’ll all have our memories from the last jumping season, a clean Grand National and Zarkandar’s memorable Aintree triumph being my main memories, but after the ‘road to Cheltenham’ theme dominating the whole of the winter until the day came around, the helter skelter brilliance of the flat, with barely a week coming without a big event to look forward to and the bonus of racing from all around the globe as well, is a welcome sight.

It’s on that note that we actually turn towards the Ten To Follow, with official list suggestions being combined with a list of the horses who we’re most looking forward to. As far as winning the competition is concerned, it’s the bonus races – giving an extra 25 points to the winner and 12 to the runner up - that will make all the difference, with seven of those events being exclusively for three year olds, starting with the Guineas at Newmarket.

From a competition point of view, the key to getting a fast start is to have horses capable of having a serious crack at both the Guineas and Oaks/Derby, with the proviso that if this year’s 3yo crop is upto scratch – and it won’t need to be great to better last year’s classic generation – they can go onto score highly against their elders.

When winning the slowly run Champagne Stakes last year I thought for all the world that Toronado would make a great Derby horse, but his Craven demolition – when brushing aside two Group class horses with strong form - told us that in he has the speed to win a Guineas in no uncertain terms and he holds a rock solid chance in the Newmarket classic next week, and with a pedigree that suggests he’ll be more than comfortable at 1m4f – he’s by High Chaprral with his damsiire having been placed in a Haskell Invitational – he looks to be a no brainer, and indeed, an attractive Derby bet pre Guineas at 8/1.

Many don’t see Dawn Approach as a Derby horse thanks to a largely speed oriented female breeding, but the way he did all his best work at the end of the National and especially Dewhurst Stakes last year suggests that he will only improve for the step up to a mile on Saturday and I’d be surprised if he couldn’t get 1m2f later in the season. In any case, given the relatively poor standard of last year’s colts, there should be plenty of milling opportunities for him and he looks well worth including.

When it comes to the 1,000 Guineas, I have had only one horse in mind for more than a year and there’s nothing not to like about French charge What A Name, who found only Olympic Glory too good in ground that blunted her speed in the Prix Jean Luc Jardere. On that form she would be a realistic 2,000 Guineas contender and near the top of last season’s 2yo crop of colts, yet she can still be backed at 11/2 given the impressive trial win of Hot Snap in the Nell Gwyn last week. With the Coronation Stakes on the agenda after this, the female milling route looks potentially lucrative this year, and in the case of Hot Snap, the Oaks is deifnetely an option given her breeding – she is a half sister to midday and out of Lingfield Oaks Trial runner-up Midsummer – while if she does win the Guineas as is widely expected, then it would be no surprise to see her going for the Nassau, as Midday did in her 3yo season.

With the Irish Derby as a bonus race, it really makes sense to go for a horse that is likely to go straight onto the Curragh after Epsom. The disrupted preparation that Kingsbarns has suffered is a negative, but by all accounts he should be ready for a major derby trial and his Racing Post trophy run – with three group winners well beaten – is the best piece of Derby form seen so far. It’s taking a major risk that he won’t be ready with no end of candidates swarming around to pick up the pieces – remember there are only 5 weeks until Epsom - but the rewards could be massive if he recovers from his problems.

With last year’s older crop looking vulnerable, Battle Of Marengo is added to the piece as a backup for Kingsbairns. Unlike some in the ante post derby picture, Epsom has been his target for a long time now and his easy defeat of Sugar Boy giving him a hefty 5lbs in testing ground now looks all the better since that one drew well clear with two other Irish colts in the Bet365 classic trial at Sandown. He’ll do much better for that run and promises to thrive for the step up to 1m4f, so makes appeal as a ‘banker’ for the middle distance 3yo scene with the potential bonus of all aged races like the King George if he’s given the chance, and the option of the St Leger if he’s not quite upto Epsom as well, just in case.

It sounds foolish not to put the world’s best horse - and in the aftermath of Frankel’s retirement I have no problem with applying that title to Cirrus Des Aigles – but it’s impossible to know if he will come for enough of the bonus races apart from the Champion Stakes and maybe the Princes Of Wales, so he just misses the cut. He should still be worth following over here on a betting basis.

Moving onto the older horses, we’ll focus on the 5yos over last year’s classic crop, who were soundly beaten at every single opportunity in the clash against their elders last season. St Nicholas Abbey has been world class for a good while now on the figures and in beating Gentildonna with relative ease in the Sheema Classic, may have run to a new career best in Dubai and has realistic claims of winning both the Coronation Cup and King George Stakes at least before the year is out.

Camelot was a disappointment at the end of last season and his crop has been exposed as weak - the victory of Pastorious in the Ganay aside - but he makes much appeal to many given his obvious versatility – he can go 1m4f and beyond but will be comfortable over 1m2f, which is where Coolmore will look to campaign him centrally for breeding purposes – and even though his bubble was burst to a significant point last year in a weak 3yo crop, he’s simply going for too many of the bonus races – the Prince of Wales, Eclipse, International, Irish Champion, and potentially Champion Stakes, to leave him out of the portfolio. There’s the danger that he could be a disappointment but at the same time he can’t be judged on his Arc effort and for most of last season, had justified his reputation. Due to the potential high scoring nature of his races, he also gets the gold star. 

Coming to the older fillies, It is a travesty that The Fugue didn’t land at least one more Group 1 last season, having gotten no luck in the Oaks or the Breeders’ Cup, but this season should see her make handsome amends and the Nassau is a prime target while it wouldn’t surprise to see her venture out and take on the colts at some time; She is good enough to be successful at both.

With nearly every stayer listed prominently for the Ascot Gold Cup – the only bonus race for stayers apart from the St Leger - having disappointed, we’ll leave out that bunch, and anyone looking to cast out the net should go for a sprinter with a specialist trip of 6 furlongs as the Golden Jubilee, July Cup and Nunthorpe are all classed as bonus races.

Shea Shea’s performance in Dubai looks to be the best effort seen from a sprinter so far this year and he would be of major interest if the King’s Stand was a bonus event, but it’s not this season and he’s not a definite to go for the double should he win, stay on until July or head for the Nunthorpe. Deacon Blues could be the horse to do such a double, but he’s not run since October 2011, while Mince has been a roll for a year and could well still have more to come, but is staking a serious step up in class. In the end, the best choice could well be either of last year’s best three year olds – Roshdu Queen, who went very well for 6 furlongs in the Fred Darling until the tank went, and Reckless Abandon, who won four Group races, two of them at the highest level. If training on, he has the strongest form claims of any British sprinter bar Society Rock, who could and should have done better when attempting the big double last year having missed the break and then found deep ground too much for him in the July Cup.

Ten To Follow Choices

Toronado

Dawn Approach

What A Name

Hot Snap

Kingsbarns

Battle Of Marengo

St Nicolas Abbey

Camelot

The Fugue

Reckless Abandon

Ante Post Advice

1 pt each/way Toronado, Derby, (8/1 Bolyesports, Ladbrokes)

1 pt each/way Battle of Marengo, Derby (7/1 general)