One of the finest weekends of the rugby year begins with the
Amlin Challenge Cup quarter finals, and Gloucester can take a big step towards
silverware by beating Challenge Cup holders Biarritz on the first quarter final
of the weekend at Kingsholm. The merits of home advantage are often discussed at
this point of the season – the success rates for visitors in the quarter finals
are just 25% for the Heineken Cup and at a similar level for its sister
equivalent – and while Biarritz have a stunning pedigree, their away record
fails to match.
With just 4 wins from 12 away Heineken Cup games
over the last 3 seasons, the French had already been notorious for bouts of
roadsickness but their record has grown progressively worse season-by-season; going
from 2 wins in 3 away days in 2009/2010 (8-26 at Newport & 18-22 at
Glasgow), to 1 win from 3 games in 2010/2011, and then drawing a blank in 3
games in 2011/2012. Admittedly Treviso, Ospreys and Saracens are three tough
fixtures for any side but this season the Basques have won just twice on the
road in the Top 14 – against the bottom two teams – and their one away with in
the Heineken Cup came against the weakest side in the whole competition in
Zebre.
Gloucester are now established as one of the strongest sides
in the Premiership following a steady development of promising youth players
such as Freddie Burns, Billy Twelvetrees and Johnny May- all of whom can expect
to go on England’s summer tour to Argentina this year – while they put up a
manful fight in last year’s Heineken Cup, finding only Toulouse and Harlequins
too strong – and they beat the French giants on home soil.
This season they’ve been as coinstent as ever in their bid
for a playoff place in the Premiership – only the top sides have been able to
stop them upon a regular basis and even then they’re yet suffer a big defeat –
no team has beaten them by double figures home or away this year- even against
England’s elite, warming up for his in the best way possible with a hard fought
and tenacious 17-15 win over Gloucester where they played some stunning rugby,
and they’ve named a strong side in aticpation of tonight’s contest – Charlie Sharples,
Johnny May, Freddie Burns and Akapusi Quera all start whlle Billy Twevletrees
should get time off the bench late
A handicap of 6 points and a home points line of just 23 are
very tempting indeed but of Gloucester’s 11 wins only 3 have been by more than seven
points and Biarritz, despite being poor travellers, are easily good enough to
keep them honest. The Basques have nothing else to play for and with potential re-entry
to the Heineken Cup as a winning prize, have named as close to a first choice squad
as possible for this with Ngwenya, Baby, Traille, Yachvilli, Lakafia and Harinordoquy
all starting. They lost by no more than 7 points on the road in the Heineken
Cup last year and won as Wasps in the quarter finals last year, so the bet
looks to be a home win by 1-12 points.
Advice
4 pts Gloucester to win by 1-12 points (11/8 Stan James)
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