One of the biggest games of the season awaits European rugby
fans as Saracens take on Ulster in a tremendous Anglo-Irish clash for all to
savour today. Beaten finalists last year, Ulster have come back stronger this
year thanks in no small part to some of the tremendous youth produce that has
been growing at Ravenhill in recent seasons, and they showed form which
suggested that they could easily go one better – they beat all three of their
opponents by double figure margins – while romping to the lead of the Pro 12
when winning their first 12 games in the league.
At Christmas after their thumping defeat of Leinster they
looked like they could take it to anyone in Europe but a horrendous new year
slump in form saw a 9 point lead drop in a matter of just 6 weeks while
counterparts Saracens – more on them later – went on a winning run that has
seen then move well clear at the top of the Premiership, but there’s good
reason to forget that run in this context.
After playing so much intense rugby, injures started to pile
up badly for Ulster in January to the point where at one time, Payne, Williams,
Muller, Henry, Pienaar were all missing, as well as long term injuries to Tommy
Bowe – who has recovered to take his place in the squad today – and Stephen
Ferris – who is sadly absent today; And the 6 Nations took the rest of the
elite players in the squad, with Luke Marshall, Craig Gilroy, Rory Best, Chris
Henry and even Paddy Jackson for a short amount of time.
All but one of those players are now back today and Ulster
prepared for this in the best possible fashion with their truly tenacious win
over Leinster last weekend which was gained in the fashion of so many of their
classic triumphs in Europe, with scintillating attack and a truly tenacious
defence both proving equally crucial as Paddy Jackson, Ruan Pieenar, Craig
Gilroy and Jared Payne carved Leinster open at will when granted enough ball.
Saracens could have felt very secure about their chances of
making the semis when Ulster were down in the dumps but that win against
Leinster has changed everything regards mood in the camp. What can’t be changed
however, is the roll Saracens have been on since moving to Allianz Park,
winning all three of their matches there, well as crunch matches away to
Leicester Tigers and London Wasps.
The home advantage they have makes them justified favourites
– even if 5 points might be a big mark in such a tight game – but Ulster have
won their last 4 away games in Europe and 7 of the last 11, including wins at
Northampton, Castres and when travelling to Munster last year. This is at least
as hard an assignment but they can’t be underestimated and that’s just enough
to put me off backing either side in the matchodds; The points and trylines
look to be set a little high at 41.5 and 3.5, but this might be a game best
left.
Advice
No bet (Although consider going under on points and tries)
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