The race for the playoffs in domestic leagues continues
after yet another fantastic set of European Quarter finals but it’s a team that
missed out on the knockout stages of Europe that has taken the Pro 12 by storm.
At the beginning of the season few would have predicted a playoff spot for Glasgow, let alone to see them leading
the table with just three games left, but the Warriors remarkable second half
run of the season has seen them soar to the top of the leaderboard as one of
three teams now guaranteed a semi final, and they can take a big step towards a
home final on one of the most crucial weekends of the year.
With Ulster widely expected to put a bonus
point on the Dragons at home – although with a team that’s battered and bruised
after being swept aside by Saracens last week and is making several changes to
compensate, things might not be so easy for them – Glasgow could do with a win
to keep pace with the boys from Ravenhill, although in a resurgent Scarlets
side who have just lost George North to Northampton and will be determined to
nail their neighbours Ospreys to the last playoff place. The Scarlets have lost
just one of their last seven matches in all competitions – that being against
Leinster at the RDS - and are worthy of huge respect here, but they face a full
strength Glasgow side who are 9 points clear of them and have won 6 games on
the road already this season.
On a line through Leinster – Scarlets were brushed aside
after the break when conceding 21 unanswered points while Glasgow made them
pull out all the stops in a 5 point defeat – only one side should be getting
the start on the handicap and with all due respect, it’s not the Glasgow. The
Scots get upto 5 points on the handicap – either a penalty or a full try – and
that’s a must bet.
Speaking of the playoffs,
Leinster’s charge was halted at home by a resurgent Ulster but they may be
able to bring Munster back to earth following their incredible Heineken Cup
quarter final win at Quins. Munster would fancy their chances after such an
incredible win but Leinster played some of their finest rugby of the season at
Wasps, boast a squad worthy of the Heineken Cup, are more than able to match
Munster in the set piece and at the breakdown, and in bringing a full strength
side, are worth a small bet to nick arguably the marquee tie of the weekend by
no more than 12 points.
Back in England, everything’s now up in the air for the
third and fourth playoff places, with Glocuester slight favourites against
Sale. With Saracens and Exeter still to come, this is the defining period of
Gloucester’s season. Sale, after a fine run of losing just three of their last
eight, move a step closer to safety with every game and have a very strong
recent home record incuding wins over Bath and Exeter, although they face a
full strength Gloucester side hwere after the 5 changes made from the Challenge
Cup defeat to Biarrtiz which came as a result of the pace of Taku Ngwynga and
Teddy Thomas when the visitors were down to 14 men twice in the first half, a lead
from which they could never properly recover. With Huia Edmonds, Dan Robson,
Shane Monahan, Billy Twelvetrees and Rob Cook back in the side they should
fancy their chances but this is too tight to call.
Harlequins are given a hefty handicap at home to Bath but
have looked a team on the edge in recent weeks and looked very tired against
Munster last week when outfoxed and outmuscled, and after what must have been a
bruising encounter for them physically and mentally, may be worth taking on in
a no call game.
Leicester have the pack to overpower London Wasps and put up
a big score on them, but they come battered and bruised from their quarter
final loss at Toulon and while their performance there underlined their class,
there’s just enough doubt in there to leave double figures; The home points
line is probably the wisest investment. If there’s any team to be backing this
weekend in England, it’s Saracens at home to a limited Worcester side on the
‘turf’ they’ve become so accustomed to, and one would much rather back them to
overcome a 15 point deficit, but the best value may well be in the Pro 12.
The game of the week however, is the battle of Heineken Cup
semi finalists Toulon v Clermont in the Top 14 on Sunday at 4:10, an unfishable
clash of Europe’s two best sides according to many.
Advice
3 pts Glasgow +5
(10/11 Coral)
1 pt Leinster to win
by 1-12 points (6/4 general)
Glasgow never turned up last night. Worst I've seen them play in ages.
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