Friday, 12 April 2013

European Rugby - 12th April 2013


The race for the playoffs in domestic leagues continues after yet another fantastic set of European Quarter finals but it’s a team that missed out on the knockout stages of Europe that has taken the Pro 12 by storm. At the beginning of the season few would have predicted a playoff spot for Glasgow, let alone to see them leading the table with just three games left, but the Warriors remarkable second half run of the season has seen them soar to the top of the leaderboard as one of three teams now guaranteed a semi final, and they can take a big step towards a home final on one of the most crucial weekends of the year.


Description: Macintosh HD:private:var:folders:yl:btv_xtfs6zq0ttcs8gh47fnh0000gq:T:TemporaryItems:_66675259_8453850.jpgWith Ulster widely expected to put a bonus point on the Dragons at home – although with a team that’s battered and bruised after being swept aside by Saracens last week and is making several changes to compensate, things might not be so easy for them – Glasgow could do with a win to keep pace with the boys from Ravenhill, although in a resurgent Scarlets side who have just lost George North to Northampton and will be determined to nail their neighbours Ospreys to the last playoff place. The Scarlets have lost just one of their last seven matches in all competitions – that being against Leinster at the RDS - and are worthy of huge respect here, but they face a full strength Glasgow side who are 9 points clear of them and have won 6 games on the road already this season.


On a line through Leinster – Scarlets were brushed aside after the break when conceding 21 unanswered points while Glasgow made them pull out all the stops in a 5 point defeat – only one side should be getting the start on the handicap and with all due respect, it’s not the Glasgow. The Scots get upto 5 points on the handicap – either a penalty or a full try – and that’s a must bet.


Speaking of the playoffs, Leinster’s charge was halted at home by a resurgent Ulster but they may be able to bring Munster back to earth following their incredible Heineken Cup quarter final win at Quins. Munster would fancy their chances after such an incredible win but Leinster played some of their finest rugby of the season at Wasps, boast a squad worthy of the Heineken Cup, are more than able to match Munster in the set piece and at the breakdown, and in bringing a full strength side, are worth a small bet to nick arguably the marquee tie of the weekend by no more than 12 points.


Back in England, everything’s now up in the air for the third and fourth playoff places, with Glocuester slight favourites against Sale. With Saracens and Exeter still to come, this is the defining period of Gloucester’s season. Sale, after a fine run of losing just three of their last eight, move a step closer to safety with every game and have a very strong recent home record incuding wins over Bath and Exeter, although they face a full strength Gloucester side hwere after the 5 changes made from the Challenge Cup defeat to Biarrtiz which came as a result of the pace of Taku Ngwynga and Teddy Thomas when the visitors were down to 14 men twice in the first half, a lead from which they could never properly recover. With Huia Edmonds, Dan Robson, Shane Monahan, Billy Twelvetrees and Rob Cook back in the side they should fancy their chances but this is too tight to call.


Harlequins are given a hefty handicap at home to Bath but have looked a team on the edge in recent weeks and looked very tired against Munster last week when outfoxed and outmuscled, and after what must have been a bruising encounter for them physically and mentally, may be worth taking on in a no call game.


Leicester have the pack to overpower London Wasps and put up a big score on them, but they come battered and bruised from their quarter final loss at Toulon and while their performance there underlined their class, there’s just enough doubt in there to leave double figures; The home points line is probably the wisest investment. If there’s any team to be backing this weekend in England, it’s Saracens at home to a limited Worcester side on the ‘turf’ they’ve become so accustomed to, and one would much rather back them to overcome a 15 point deficit, but the best value may well be in the Pro 12.


The game of the week however, is the battle of Heineken Cup semi finalists Toulon v Clermont in the Top 14 on Sunday at 4:10, an unfishable clash of Europe’s two best sides according to many.


Advice

3 pts Glasgow +5 (10/11 Coral)

1 pt Leinster to win by 1-12 points (6/4 general) 

1 comment:

  1. Glasgow never turned up last night. Worst I've seen them play in ages.

    ReplyDelete