Aintree Festival 2013 - Manifesto Novices' Chase

4.50 Aintree

Betfred Manifesto Novices' Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £42,712

Advice: 1 pt win Captain Conan (13/8 general)

Captain Conan: Always going to be a chaser (second to Darlan over hurdles at this meeting his best form over smaller obstacles) and won first three starts over fences in good, if a little workmanlike style; Badly disappointed in Jewson when having made a strong looking challenge but this an easier task and on a much flatter track, should last home more potently than he did at Cheltenham, possibly with a delayed challenge.

Carlito Brignante: Very classy hurdler (RPR of 157 over hurdles in 2011) but yet to come close to matching that over fences and laboured when forth in novice chases here and also at Cheltenham; Good ground should help his cause and best at this time of year but still hard to recommend strongly; Chance still.

Changing Times: Had looked extremely progressive when front running earlier on in the season, and while he was disappointing when fourth, beaten 34 lengths by Captain Conan; Well ahead of him at Festival but can’t help but think that track suited him a lot better over this trip and things likely to be different today.

Drumshambo: Admirable sort who has shaped as if this trip would bring out some improvement on last two runs over 2m, but beaten a long way by Alderwood in Grand Annual latest and others look less exposed following that.

Fago: Grade 1 second over fences in France (2m6f, heavy) and looked to be building on that promise when romping chase debut (2m, Newbury) and looked set to win Grade 2 with ease before taking soft fall; So, so disappointing when beaten 15 lengths at Sandown, finding nothing when challenged by admittedly progressive Kapaga De Cerisy latest and this trip an unkown.

His Excellency: Tail-swishing sort who tends to do too much when race is over as a contest; Beaten long way into third in the Arkle but going nicely when falling in the Grand Annual at the end of the week; 2m4f around here should surely suit him but not sure he’ll give himself a proper chance today.

Sunny Ledgend: On all known form he should struggle.

Tap Night: Clearly useful as his form in winning two novice chases shows (also beat Captain Conan over hurdles in Grade 2) and put flop behind him in nice style when making it two from three over hurdles at Ayr before flopping in the Arkle (not entitled to be involved on even best form); This might suit more and could have more to offer for all he’s come up short both times he’s upped to Grade 1 level.

VERDICT: CAPTAIN CONAN was disappointing at Cheltenham when behind Changing Times but he made his challenge very early and this much less testing track could see hi end his season on a high note. The Jewson third will be a big threat again, in an open race where many have questions over them; Carltio Brigante might be best of the rest.