The leadership battle for the Tour De France has reared it’s
head once again for Team Sky but Chris Froome can underline his credentials for
June by following in Bradley Wiggins’s footsteps and taking just his second
tour title. With Bradley going for the Giro, the Tour and it’s mountainous
route has been an absolute certainty for Chris and of Sky’s two main talisman
riders, it’s undoubtedly been Froome who’s had the better start to the year,
firstly winning a stage and then the overall at the Tour Of Oman and looking
very strong through Tirreno-Adriatico before floundering up the third ascent of
the 27%, Muro di Sant'Elpidio when making the two costly mistakes of being over
geared for the incline – which is far different from the percentages which he
so enjoys - and under protected for the brutally cold and wet conditions on
that day, leaving him unable to pull back the 34 second gap created between him and Vincenzo Nibali.
With no actual ‘summit’ finish – the queen stage is
monstrous, but ends with a descent after the sort of climbs that Froome has
been dominating all year - there’s nothing remotely as testing in Switzerland
to trouble him this week and the bookending of the race with an uphill prologue
– which at 7.5KM and 300m of vertical gain going upwards is long enough for
small gaps to appear – and a pan flat trial which is double the length of the
event in which he pulled back 11 seconds on Nibali at the end of Tirreno
Adriatico to end the week – he should have no such problems this week and looks
a rock soild bet.
It’s also helpful that, with all due respect, this is a much
weaker field compared to Tirreno, with Nibali going for the Giro and Contador –
who he had over half a minute behind – absent
and looking elsewhere for pre Tour form. Richie Porte has been exceptional
with a chance to lead but he was well beaten in the Criterium International by
Froome and may be reigned back in support of the Team Sky no1; In a head to
head, ready preference is for the Brit. Alejandro Valverde is in some carrier
best form and must be considered a threat, but he may have a struggle against
the clock to hold off Froome in the time trial, and a bigger threat may come
from the Garmin pairing of Andrew Talansky and Ryder Hesjedal. Talansky is
turning into a fine all rounder and had an excellent Paris Nice, although he
was readily outfought and outthoguth by Porte in Paris Nice on both count and
the real interest is in Hesjdal, who was so impressive in laying the foundation
for Dan Martin’s Liege Bastone Liege win at the weekend, having been relatively
unseen so far this season. This is potentially a bit close to the Giro for his
liking, but as an excellent one day rider he’ll be looking to take time in the
middle stages and especially the decent after the Col De La Croix on Saturday, while
also being an excellent time tiralist. He’s 33/1 for the win and that’s too
big, but 6/1 for a top three finish with Sportingbet is a good shout.
Plenty have claims on their best form – some have pointed
out former winner Romain Kreguizer as a good one to go well after a solid
classics season, and the same has been said about recent AG2R sensation Carlos
Betancur, but the end of week time trial could kill those chances, while the
likes of Gesink, Westra, and Van Den Broeck have yet to show form that suggests
that can go head to head with Froome for the win on early season form – Gesink
was well behind Porte in Spain recently, Westra was well off the pace in
Paris-Nice, and Van Den Broeck was ninth in the Volta a Catalunya. Tony Martin
could win both time trials, but the severe climbing has proven to be too much
for him and it could be the same story once again.
Advice
8 pts win Chris Froome (6/5 Boylesports)
1 pt Ryder Hesjedal top 3 finish (6/1 Sportingbet)
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