Bahrain Grand Prix 2013

There were seven different winners of the first seven races last season but after just three Grand Prix this year, one could argue that a pattern is beginning to emerge. The best race pace seems to be held by the Red Bull, granted the right conditions for it – long circuits with plenty of high speed corners and several long straights – with Mercedes able to match it for raw speed on a one lap basis, for all that on a longer stint they struggle with maintenance of tyre wear. The best of both worlds seems to be with Ferrari, who were easily able to outrun the opposition in China last weekend and are by far the best placed tactically thanks to this unique mix of speed and tyre wear, which was behind the comprehensive victory of Fernando Alonso last weekend, along with the consistent pace of Felipe Massa in both qualifying and race situations so far this season. Massa’s return to form at the end of last season and new found confidence have seen him finish fourth, fifth and sixth, and with such a top record around this track – he won from pole position in 2007, won again in 2008 and was second to Alonso in 2010 – is of interest for the win and podium, although another Top 6 seems to be a safer bet even at the prohibitive price of just 4/7.

Lotus have the best tyre wear management of any car on the grid, which allows them to go longer than any car, while their raw pace leaves them just behind the top three, meaning that they can challenge for wins on a regular basis through Kimi Raikkonen, even if Romain Grosjean hasn’t found the same pace due to car setup issues – showing potential with finishes of 10, 6, and 9 in the three races so far. Given the heavy load Bahrain places on tyres thanks to the high speed corners and track temperatures (which should be upwards of 40C this weekend) and the Lotus’s capability to retain tyres for so long, their third successive double points finish of the season looks to be an obvious choice even at the 8/13 given – it’ could be a market well worth returning to after qualifying, as the difference between race pace and qualifying with Lotus is the biggest of any of the top teams; The same advice would go towards those who feel Kimi is the best bet for another win on Sunday, as he’s  qualified no better than second so far this season and was seventh in Australia and 10^th in Malaysia on the first two weekends.

Force India don’t the get coverage any of the above teams have been mentioned but their results have been steadily progressive for well over a year and they should have a lot more points on the board this season. A comfortable seventh and eighth in Australia, they would have both scored points but for wheel nut problems in Malaysia and somehow managed to collide with eachother on the first lap in Malaysia, although Paul Di Resta managed to salvage eighth and could (arguably should) have finished higher. He’d have three straight points finished and the team three straight double points finishes if not for the wheel nut catastrophe a couple of weeks back, so at  Paddy Power’s 8/11 – bigger than his team mate in the same market – he is a must back, while Force India are as big as 11/5 to have two cars in the Top 10 with Bwin.

As for the first practice tomorrow, the Red Bull pairing of Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel look to be worth backing for the first and second practices tomorrow. Before China the pairing had won four of the six practices between them, and in what’s generally accepted to be the best one lap car on the grid, should prove to be competitive on a track they’ve liked in the past – at 9/2 and 13/2.

Advice – Practice 1

1 pt Sebastian Vettel (9/2 general)

1 pt Mark Webber (13/2 Bet365, 6/1 general)

Advice – Race

4 pts Paul Di Resta points finish  (8/11 Paddy Power)

1 pt Force India double points finish (11/5 Bwin)