Champions League Quarter Finals 2012/13 - Borussia Dortmund v Malaga

Borussia Dortmund’s failure to make the most of their dominance in Spain last week leaves this as the most contested tie of the last eight – and the arguably the only one still left anywhere remotely in the balance before kick-off – but Borussia Dortmund looked by far the more likely victors in Spain and can advance to the quarter finals at the expense of Malaga tonight.

Both sides have come a huge distance in the last two seasons and last week’s first leg was expected to be the tightest of the four for many but Dortmund were on top in terms of chances created from start to finish and Malaga’s only reason for being in this tie as a contest was some remarkable profligacy and the outstanding goalkeeping of Willy Cabaero. Mario Gotze alone was twice clean through on goal in the first half and then missed from an excellent position with 25 minutes left on the clock, while Lewandowski practically missed an open goal early in the second half.

It’s highly unlikely that Manuel Pellegrini will employ such a high defensive line tonight but the suspension of defensive midfielder Manuel Iturra and captain/key defender Wellington are notable absences if their plan tonight is to drop deep and threaten on the break.

Malaga too did create chances – coming close on a few occasions in the second half and growing steadily into the game – but they were clearly second best there and don’t boast an away record on a par with their achievements in Spain, having won just once on the road even if they can count draws against AC Milan and Zenit amongst their achievements so far this season.

However they’re very much up against it on Dortmund’s home turf tonight based on the balance of the first leg and their man hope comes from the fact that they have the advantage of the away goals to play. The men in yellow warmed up for this in perfect style with a come from behind 4-2 win over Agusburg on Sunday here and are the only unbeaten team in the Champions League, having also won all four of their home contests in the competition so far including a deeply impressive 3-0 romp over Shakatar in the last 16.

For such a deeply attacking side (the 0-0 at Malaga was the first clean sheet that they’d kept in their travels for the competition so far) Dortmund have an impressive defensive record, having won three of their four home games to nil – only Real Madrid have actually scored against them in the competition so far this season at the Signal Iduna Park, and it’s no surprise that many have been keen on the ‘win to nil’ wager. However the 11/8 with Paddy Power is now the best value and it may be best to dutch the 1 and 2-0 scorelines in the home team’s favour.

Advice

1 pt 1-0 Dortmund (8/1 Bet Victor)

1 ot 2-0 Dortmund (7/1 Bet Victor)