There have been some great comebacks in the Champions League
knockout stages of recent years but anything but an all German final at Wembley
after last week’s thrashing looks to be impossible and anything but defeat at
the semi final stage for the third successive season - Only one team has ever
managed to overturn a 4-1 first-leg deficit in the Champions League, Deportivo
La Coruna beating AC Milan 4-0 in 2004 - would be a tremendous surprise.
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| Madrid will be more excited than this if they can do the impossible |
Unlike compatriots Barcelona, Madrid at leave have the advantage
of an away goal for their efforts but that goes no way to explaining why
they’re as short at 3/1 to qualify. Madrid do boast a vey strong home record - they
have won 14 out of 17 recent home games in Europe, and ten of those victories
were by at least a three-goal margin -
but anyone allowing themselves to be swayed by that fact should remember that
in their group stage meeting Dortmund were very unlucky not to win, Madrid
having been saved by Ozil’s superb late equaliser in the 89th
minute.
With so much on the
line, the market makes a home success 4/7 – it’s generally 1/2 elsehwhere - but
even then there are qualms to be had with that price given how convincingly
Dortmund outplayed them last week and also their away performances this season.
Much of that came down to Sami Khedira’s dreadful
performance in midfield – he’s rightfully dropped in favour of Luka Modric,
while Mezut Ozil’s movement back to playing off the striker will surely aid
Madrid’s cause – but the best bet looks to be backing over 3.5 goals even at
the short prices offered here. Two of their three games this season have
reached that mark, while these two sides are all about goals, with 19 of
Madrid’s 33 wins this season coming without a clean sheet.
6/4 that Madrid win without the clean sheet is tempting, but
Dortmund have conceded 36 goals in the Bundlesliga this season and Madrid’s
stats aren’t that much better, so the 5/6 on 4 or more looks the best option.
Advice
1 pt Over 3.5 goals (5/6 general)
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