Aintree Festival 2013 - Mildmay Novices Chase

2.30 Aintree

John Smith's Mildmay Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £42,712

Advice: 2 pts Rocky Creek top two finish (4/5 Bet365)

Dynaste: One of the most highly anticipated novice chasers of the season and most impressive in going three from three over fences, destroying his field in the Feltham Chase at Kempton; In anticipation of testing ground, connections bypassed the RSA Chase but things didn’t turn out that way and he failed to find any answer to Beneffcent in the Jewson Chase despite going well; One would think he has an obvious chance back upto 3m on flat track he should enjoy, but had hard race there and looks vulnerable.

Rocky Creek: Grade 2 winner over hurdles who has reached similar level of form over fences quickly, his only defeat in four chase starts coming to the subsequent Grade 2 winner Harry Topper at Exeter on debut; Convincing wins at Doncaster and Warwick, especially where he came home 15 lengths clear of 135 rated runner up in impressive display before Christmas, and strong at finish when winning Renolydstown Chase at Ascot; Only run once on good ground and below form when he did so but stronger, better horse than in March 2011; Makes obvious appeal.

Sea Of Thunder: Been in and out since desperately unlucky fall at last in Grade 2 over hurdles at Cheltenham but still a very useful sort who looked to have future over fences when bolting up at Clonmel and then second to Sire Collonges at Cheltenham; Ground too soft for him latest and will be fresh having missed Cheltenham, but ground to make on form and others appeal more.

Super Duty: Shaped as a staying chaser of future when second to Simonsig here last year – albeit by 15 lengths (hit the second last very hard); Not reached full potential until going upto 3m, beaten a head conceding 7lbs in Wetherby Grade 2 and only just beaten a head giving 12lbs in Kim Muir latest; Should go well but had hard race there and this flatter, sharper, track might not suit as much as Cheltenham; Respected nevertheless.

Third Intention: Smart hurdler despite low strike rate and same story over fences despite several smart efforts; Hard to recommend on basis that he was beaten 12 lengths by Dynaste at Cheltenham and 15 lengths at Kempton.

Vino Griego: Always had the talent but been frustrating type until return to restrained riding methods helped him out, winning high class handicap at Cheltenham and Ascot before Festival second; Can go well here.

VERDICT: Dynaste looks to be a vulnerable favourite given how little he found over 2m5f in the Jewson at Cheltenham and he had a hard race that day, while he’s beginning to build a suspect record on quicker ground too. Super Duty and Vino Griego’s bold handicap showings entitle them to respect here, but it might pay to back a horse who missed the Festival in ROCKY CREEK, who shaped like a stayer of promise when completing a hat trick in the Renyoldstown Chase. While the quicker ground is also a potential problem for him, he’s only run on it once and that was when a weak horse in March 2011 over hurdles; He’s a far superior horse now and the best alternative may be Sea Of Thunder.