Ashes 2013

To say that ‘beggars can’t be choosers’ in the case of England retaining the Ashes might feel crude considering just how recently England were being toyed with on regular occasions by Australia but Monday’s rained off end to what should have been a brilliant ending to a test match was a deeply unsatisfactory way to retain the Ashes, although hardly one that will have been sniffed at.

England started this series as heavy favourites for the win and even heavier favourites to retain the urn and lead 2-0 but the series has been so much closer than the scoreline suggests. A tit for tat first test at Trent Bridge had more than enough drama for a whole series when Australia went down by just 15 runs, and while England were truly dominant at Lord’s, had the rain come at Old Trafford then this series would be very well and truly alive.

Infact, based purely on performances than the 3/1 on Australia would be the simple choice between the three match odds, although enthusiasm is just slightly tempered by a couple of factors. First is the conditions here, which are a proper seam bowlers paradise encouraging both conventional and reverse swing before flattening out, a scenario that has often suited England best like their 4 previous wins here, although all of them came against sides poorer than this travelling one.

Secondly is the loss of Mtichell Starc, both of whom mastered the conditions and ball at Old Trafford with aplomb that cemented their first innings lead. Starc’s bowling alongside Harris never allowed England to get going after taking out Ian Bell and then Kevin Pietersen, while his quickfire 60 made victory look very possible. So too was the winning of the toss from Michael Clarke, who got the two perfect batting days out of the 5 in the test with the sun shining, outfield fast and ball not moving much in either direction.

That’s not to take away from Australia’s performance – England had decent batting conditions but made only 368 in reply – but they followed up their first test performance with a horror show at Lord’s and there are too many variables for us.

One definite through this series has been the excellent performances of Brad Haddin (left), who has knocked 161 runs from down the order, leading the fightback that set up the thrilling finish at Trent Bridge before putting down the hammer to seal a big lead at Old Trafford, and his performances points look to be a cheap buy at 96 or more points on Bet365’s performance markets. His totals in the three tests so far have been 132, 74, and 143, and it’s safe to assume that Australia are going to be more competitive than at Lord’s here while he’s likely to avoid the worst of the swinging ball here, which gives hope that he could land a few runs with the bat in either innings.

Haddin has taken 7,6 and 6 catches in the first three tests and could get at least as many here with the conditions conducive to swing, so looks to be the bet of the match at 5/6 for 96 or more points.

Elsehwere, Ian Bell can be the top runscorer from both sides in the first test. England’s best batsman by some way this series, Bell has made 25, 109, 109, 74, 60 and 4 not out this series and been top innings runscorer twice from just 6 innings, and will come in at 5, avoiding the moving ball – or at least the worst of it given the tendency for the ball to reverse – and is a temping 13/2 shot in that market.

Advice

6 pts Brad Haddin to score 96 or more performance points (1 pt per run, 10 per catch, 25 per stumping, 5/6 Bet365)

1 pt Ian Bell top combined runscorer in 1^st innings (13/2 general)