Kentucky Oaks 2013

10.45 Churchill Downs

Longines Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) (3yo Fillies) (Dirt) (3yo)

Winner: £361,350 Runners: 11 Distance: 1m1f Going: Fast

Silista: Showed good stamina and attitude when producing minor upset in Bourbonette Oaks, but beating fellow stakes debutant there and will be forcing a much hotter pace than she’d like; Others preferred and looks the weakest of four Pletcher horses.

Midnight Lucky: Following same path as Plum Pretty two years ago for same trainer, romping Sunland Oaks by eight lengths after strolling on debut at Santa Anita; Clearly blessed with talent and no surprise to see her at the business end but in a race with a plethora of early speed, stamina going to be much more of a factor late on in what’s looking to be a deep renewal already; Respected.

Beholder: Reversed form with Executiveprivilege off 4lbs worse terms in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile fillies (Dreaming of Juila third that day) and barring upset on comeback, has been spotless in two easy wins this season, reversing from with first time out conqueror Renee’s Titan; Serious form claims here.

Unlimited Budget: Unbeaten in four, three of them graded, getting the better of Flashy Gray (rider lost whip) and Seaneen Girl in a stretch battle to win Fair Grounds’ Oaks, which has provided 5 of the last eight winners of Kentucky Oaks; Also an impressive winner of Rachel Alexandra at Fairgrounds the time before that and plenty to like about her chances.

Seaneen Girl: Sprung a surprise in Gold Rod Stakes over C&D as a two year old, and entitled to improve from comeback when four lengths behind Unlimited Budget, but well beaten that day and far more needed.

Princess Of Sylmar: Third of four for Todd Pletcher, but well up against it here based on the way she was just no match for Close Hatches in the Gazelle Stakes latest; Others preferred.

Pure Fun:  Eyecatching potential showed when justifying supplementary entry to win Hollywood Starlet as 2yo (disappointing Executiveprivilege in fourth); Not lived upto that since that and others make more appeal here.

Dreaming of Juila: Came into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile unbeaten, having dogged out the Frizette in game style, but no answer to Beholder then; Live Lively beat  her on debut but looked special when winning Gulfstream Oaks by 21 lengths latest; If that can be replicated then she’s got to have a chance but this a whole different test and tons of speed on early to test her stamina late; The one to beat.

Rose To Gold: An easy winner of muddy fantasy at Oaklawn as market expected, but this a vastly different test and others preferred here on dry surface.

Close Hatches: Took it to three from three when winning the Gazelle from Princess of Sylmar going away ay Aqueduct last time; Strong on that form here and of interest.

VERDICT: Dreaming of Juila looked special when winning the Gulfstream Oaks but faces a very different test here and stablemate UNLIMITED BUDGET, strong at the death in the Kentucky Oaks when making it 4 from 4, is far more value. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner BEHOLDER has also been a little ignored, having won so well twice in California this year, and looks to have excellent form claims.