Monday, 26 December 2011

Paddy Power Dial-a-bet Chase 2011


1.25 Leopardstown
Paddy Power Dial-a-bet Chase (grade 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €64,999

Advice: 9 pts win Big Zeb (8/11 general)

Owner detailsBig Zeb: As good as ever last season when winning three out of his five starts, well held by Sizing Europe before then beating him in titanic battle at Punchestown; Back as good as ever when beating Noble Prince (now 5lbs better off ) at Navan and should be very hard to beat to say the least.


Forpadydeplaster: Arkle winner in 2009 who has finished runner up in 5 Grade 1’s after that, only occasion when not in the frame coming because of sickness; Back to best (clinically abnormal after first run) when third behind Big Zeb but badly in now and playing for second.

Owner detailsGolden Silver: One of the most consistent horses in training and overturned Big Zeb (making it 5-1 in terms of head to heads) before then being held at spring festivals; Unusually lacklustre reappearance when sure to be beaten before Osinarimix was unseated at the last; Needs to be much better here.

Owner detailsNoble Prince: Developed into top novice chaser last season with Jewson chase win at Cheltenham Festival, looking unlucky to go down in the Powers Gold Cup; Reappearance win farcically easy and gave Big Zeb a race at Navan but now 5lbs worse off and doesn’t have the advantage of race fitness now.

Owner detailsSaludos: Good novice chaser last year, winning Grade 2 and running respectably in top company when the ground was soft; Not been as good this season and this harder than previous tests.


Owner detailsScotsirish: Ran well in this in the past but looks to have been found a new niche of cross country chasing and no realistic chance here.

VERDICT: BIG ZEB is 5lbs better off for a two length win over Noble Prince, while he holds a 5-1 head to head over Golden Silver, who was lucky to win on his seasonal reappearance when struggling against a horse rated nearly three stones inferior. He rates maximum bet material.  

4 comments:

  1. Spot-on - Totally agree with you, after Sizing Europe's "blood-less" win last time, BIG ZEB is a "certainity"! Bookies are taking no chances and priced accordingly !

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