Johnson at the moment is not in line for an automatic cup
place but would have sealed one already based on his form if he hadn’t suffered
some nasty injuries this year to his knee and back. Despite that, he’s still
kept up the streak of winning once every season on the US Tour – winning the St
Jude’s classic in June – and after an understandable drop in form after that,
he’s since roared back to form with a third place in the Barclays tournament
last week, making steady ground late and giving the impression he was just getting
a hot streak a little late in the day. The TPC Boston – a course which Dustin
Johnson has finished fourth on in 2009 – plays easier than Bethpage on the face
of things with a ranking of 37th out of 51 on difficulty this year (Over
the last five years, the average winning score is 18.4 under par) and giving plenty
of fair greens, despite the toughing of the so often crucial last hole and it
should suit the man who has claimed a title in each of the last two years down
to the ground, so the 20/1 on offer makes a lot of appeal.
Jason Dufner didn’t even turn up at the Barclays tournament
but was a runner up here in 2009 and has been steadily moving into some form this
season. In his last 5 starts he’s tied fourth in the US Open, seventh in the
PGA Championship, and seventh at Wyndham, which suggests that he could have gone
under the radar this week despite the fact that he currently ranks 3rd
in Birdie Average and 4th in Scoring Average on the US Tour – a similarity that
the last three winners of this tournament all had in common, as they all lay in
the top 10 of birdie average going into the tournament.
The Fed Ex Cup often rewards course specialists who peak at
the right time and few come to mind quicker than Steve Stricker for this task.
His last six starts in Boston have produced a win and three other top-10s,
which more than override his poor showing in the Barclays last week. Beofre
that his US form read fifth at the John Deere, a tied second in the
WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and a tied seventh in the USPGA, and his play-off
record is nothing short of startling, so the 2009 winner deserved to be
supported at a generous looking 28/1.
Last but not least it’s time to
get behind two classy Australians with good course records. Geoff Ogilvy has
been in steady form of late with 10 top 30 finishes in his last 13 events (three
top-20 finishes in his last four starts but his exceptional course record – fifth
in 2003, sixth in 2007, seventh in 2009, and runner up in 2010) means he must
be added to the portfolio, if not for the outrights with tight bookies who won’t
go 6 places, then in the rest of the world category where 9/1 is freely available.
Fellow Australian Adam Scott may
only ever be known for his meltdown in the Open on the last day but that would
be slight on an incredibly talented golfer – who one day should break his major
duck – who has had an excellent campaign at the very highest level, coming 15th
in the US Open, runner up and Lytham, and 11th in the USPGA when his
confidence was surely to have been at his lowest ebb after that Sunday. Winner
here in 2003, runner up next year, and a top eight finisher in the last two
years, he looks well worth supporting in a bid for his bumper pot and in the
Rest Of The World Category. Of the others, Woods and McIlroy are too short once
again despite their class, Westwood and Rose are the two Englishmen I’ve looked
at most, and a return to form for Keegan Bradley would be a danger to all, but
our team will do and contains course specialists a plenty at more attractive
prices.
Advice
1 pt Dustin Johnson (18/1 Paddy
Power)
1 pt each/way Jason Dufner (20/1
Paddy Power)
1 pt each/way Bubba Watson (25/1
general)
1 pt each/way Steve Stricker (28/1
Boylesports, 22/1 Paddy Power)
1 pt each/way Bo Van Pelt (45/1
Paddy Power)
1 pt each/way Geoff Ogilvy (40/1
Paddy Power)
1 pt each/way Adam Scott (22/1
Paddy Power)
Advice - Rest Of The World
1 pt each/way Adam Scott (11/2 Bet365)
1 pt each/way Geoff Ogilvy (9/1 general)
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