Vuelta A Espana - Stage 9 (Andorra > Barcelona)

This year’s Vuelta A Espana has already been described by some as even more exciting than the whole of the Tour De France and while that may be an unfair dig, it’s certainly provided us with plenty of thrills and spills, not least the spectacular summit finish which saw Chris Froome in trouble for the first time since the Tour De France. Our joint outright pick of Joaquim Rodriquez still leads by 33 seconds to Froome, which is a good position to be going into. The next big test is the ITT on Wednesday, which is a great opportunity for Froome to get back into the thick of things on a course that should realy suit with a Category 3 climb, all of this after a rest day.

Today’s stage looks set to provide none of the fireworks that we’ve seen so far due to the peculiar nature of a course that leaves Andorra with a Category 3 climb and ends in Barcelona’s Olympic stadium after the Alto de Montjuic - a 1 kilometre climb that has an average gradient of 8.1%. It has breakway written all over it unless the sprinters teams can keep them in touch. When the Tour De France came here in 2009 a huge break was established but caught just in time and if it’s to be a bunch sprint then the same’s likely to happen again.

Relatively speaking, it could be like either Stage 15 (where the break had 11 minutes on the Peloton and Pierrick Federigo outsprinted Christan Vandevelde with ease) or Stage 18 of this year’s Tour De France (where Mark Cavendish was carried over the climb to get a fantastic win as repayment for the efforts of others).

Should the latter situation arrive there would be only one man I’d really look to for a stage win – John Degenkolb, who has won three bunch sprints already and is clearly much the best sprinter on this tour. 4/1 would be massive if he’s delivered anywhere near close to the line, although there’s a worry that this uphill finish could blunt his speed.

The one man who this stage is really set up for is Philppe Gilbert (left). If this had been a year ago, then he’d be favourite and a strong one at that, but illness and injury along with quite a few crashes have wrecked his season. When at the height of his powers, Gilbert took a remarkable 18 wins last year and ended the year the world’s best cyclist, but has since dropped to 64^th in the world. However he’s been showing steady improvement though this year’s Tour De France, coming 8^th and 4^th on Stages 13 and 14 respectively, and he’s gotten into a break already this year, on Stage 3. A good climber with a powerful sprint strong enough for an uphill finish, at 8/1 he makes a lot of appeal.

Of the others, Simon Clarke – who got into the break and stayed there to take stage 3 – and Pim Lighart – who comes from a breakaway team and hasn’t been seen much, so presumably is sure to be fresh enough for an attack – also make appeal, with more preference for the former. 

Advice

1 pt John Degenkolb (4/1 Stan James)

1 pt Phillipe Gilbert (8/1 Stan James)

1 pt Simon Clarke (33/1 Stan James)