RSA Thoroughbred Stakes 2012

2.35 Goodwood

RSA Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £31,190

Advice: 1 pt win Trumpet Major (13/2 general), Stipulate (7/1 general)

Trumpet Major: Solid 2 year old, an impressive winner of Champagne Stakes at Doncaster before slightly unlucky fifth in Dewhurst; Back in great style when defying penalty in CRvwn Stakes and ran up to form when fourth in 2,000 Guineas, being given forceful ride in ground softer than he’d have liked; Disappointed when last in Irish Guineas last time but not right there and if back to best, he’s going to take some catching.

Ajamaaher: Well behind Gregorian (both much improved since) on seasonal reappearance at Newbury in soft ground 7f handicap, winning Listed event impressively and then coming close third in Jersey Stakes (looks strong beforehand, eyecatcher); Held up in that race and ended up making lot of ground late, so not hard to think that he could do better than that in time, and good draw helps claims; Trip is interesting for him (keen) but big chance nonetheless.

Archbishop: Made perfect return from layoff when second in handicap to since group placed Rewarded at Newmarket, and much better when second to Xandou in Chantilly Group 3; Has to be respected and should have more to give, although draw of 13 may prove to be troublesome for him.

Born To Surprise: Looked set for big future when romping home with 7f maiden at Doncaster ; Since been well beaten in Craven and Britannia and while he was back to form in second latest, that off mark of 90; Others appeal far more.

Coupe De Ville: Had a well season that’s been well above expectations, with win in big sales event followed up by fifth in Guineas (some say he was assisted by his helpful draw on the other side);Pattern placed the last twice  in decent events but this should prove too good once again.

Ewell Place: Got better of solid yardstick in Silverheels at Newbury (7f, heavy ground) but based on his midfield finish in Jersey Stakes he’s got so much more to find.

Gregorian: Quickly made up into class act with close finishes in French Guineas, St James’s Palace and Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly latest; All of those give him good chances here and the one to bat on those efforts for all that he’s out wide in 10.

Miblish: 200-1 seventh in the St James´s Palace suggests he’s not upto this task.

Ptolemaic: Rapid early season improvement has flattened out a bit, although plainly non stayer at 1- furlongs in Dante and midfield finish in Jersey suggests that’s just as good as he is.

Red Duke: Has been desperately unlucky in all of his runs barring one since first and only Group win, finding trouble on many occasions or being hindered by a slow pace; Sure to find things drop right for him but others look to be naturally better than him today.

Saigon: Made extremely promising start to this season and has held form admirably since but behind most of today’s players on form and doubt blinkers will change that effect.

Silverheels: Moves upto 1m for the first time and had cheekpieces on but now feels exposed and well behind Ajamaaher at Newmarket, while Ewell Palace beat her last time out.

Stipulate: Improved hand over fist to win Listed event at Newmarket on reappearance and better form with close pair of Listed seconds the last twice, possibly not suited by 10f at Ascot in what had been quite testing ground; Back to a mile with stable flying, has to be seriously considered here.

Tales Of Grimm: Impressed many when winning sole 2yo start at Newbury and yet more promise when third behind Stipulate in Heron Stakes (form working out well); Only sixth at Ascot when not all was really right for him in race but drop in trip asks questions of him once again.

VERDICT: A well above average renewals. On the basis of his three Group 1 efforts this season it’s understandable to see Gregorian as favourite, but a draw of 10 is offputting and he faces stern opposition today, which makes him a slightly vulnerable favourite.  TRUMPET MAJOR has a 4lbs penalty to carry but that didn’t stop him winning the Craven in empathic style and his Guineas fourth is some of the best form in the field. With a top draw in 3 and a valid excuse for running so poorly in Ireland (coughing) he rates value at nearly 7/1. So too does STIPULATE, who himself has shown good form and speed at a mile this year and also has a great draw, with the Henry Cecil yard flying this week. Aljamaheer makes a lot of appeal based on his Jersey third but he can take a slightly keener hold than one would want which is just enough to leave him from the portfolio.