We have the game we all wanted but not the team, it would
seem. In the last test of one of the most critical tours in the history of the
Lions, the player that so many embody as the greatest Lion of modern times,
Brian O’Driscoll, was dropped from the matchday 23 totally, in a side that
bears the biggest mark of Warren Gatland so far.
Avoiding the hysteria that overtook rugby fans yesterday,
Gatland’s six changes – five of them enforced, with Sam Warburton’s injury –
return the side towards the formula and personnel that have become Gatland’s
defining feature with 10 Welshmen in the last starting side, captained by lock
Alun Wyn Jones.
In the front row, Alex Cobisiero comes back and Richard
Hibbard gets the nod over the desperately unlucky Tom Youngs in order to make
the heaviest and most powerful scrum – on paper - of the test series. Hibbard
and Jones got the first scrum shove well on England in march and with Romain
Poite known to pick a side at scrum-time and favour them for the rest of the game,
the emphasis will be on early, hard hits with Jones at the helm.
With Sam Warburton out Sean O’Brien is called in as his
replacement - understandable for all that Justin Tipuric has ad an outstanding
season and strong tour – and Toby Faletau returns with a emphasis on the
gainline that the Lions didn’t break once last week very much evident with the
backline changing, given the return of Mike Phillips, one of the most
questionable decisions of the whole selection given how poor he was In the
first test and the positive impact that Connor Murray – Johnny Sexton’s
halfback partner for Ireland – had when coming on last week.
Obviously the dropping of Brian O’Driscoll is the main
headline but the Welsh centre partnership, while frustrating for some, is understandable
– although it places a huge reliance upon Johnny Sexton for creative purposes.
Putting aside any hyperbolic reaction, this is Gatland’s clearest
gameplan yet – use superior force to dominate the contact, gainline and set
piece, with any attacking opportunities created as a result of the opposing
side’s inability to cope with sustained ferocity – basically the Welsh gameplan
that saw them get to a World Cup semi final and win two of the last three 6
Nations, most notably when destroying England to take the title on points
difference this year.
When performed properly, the plan has worked to perfection
for Wales, but there are issues with it. Wales won this year’s 6 Nations with
that thrashing of England, but faced a side that had been retreating into an
even more conservative version of the same gameplan, but crucially lacking the
advantage in the pack with Joe Marler thoroughly useless against Adam Jones at
scrumtime and a backrow that was totally unequipped to take on two of the
world’s most in form opensides with Tom Croft thrown in on his return from a
serious neck injury and Tom Wood pushed back to number 8.
Secondly, Australia are well used to this method. Before the
series it was a point of contention that Wales had failed to win their last
eight against Australia, albeit that three of the 4 games they lost in 2012 came
by three points or less.
The argument that could be made here is that with a couple
of tweaks – especially with Johnny Sexton at flyhalf for example – they could
be strong enough to overturn the tight margins but Australia were unlucky not
to win the first test by a good margin and played all the rugby last week
before Ashley Cooper’s late try which by then had an inevitable feel to it.
The Wallaby pack has been widely expected to be second best
all series but that hasn’t materialized to the extent predicted and there’s no
guarantee that a beefed up front row will do the trick, while the pace and
creativity of the backline has been evident from the limited opportunities
they’ve had to influence the game so far despite fly half James O’Connor having
had a poor series so far.
With the momentum, it’s tempting to go for an Australian win
outright, but this is far too tight a game to be taking the straight win option
for either side and our strategy of backing both sides to win by 1-5 points
looks to be the best bet here.
Secondly, the half time full time reverse results – given
how tightly the games have been matched – look well worth backing. The core of
the Welsh side that played Australia last season score their majority of their
points after the break – they trailed in all three summer tests between the
pair and will look to wear down the hosts, who turned around a three point
deficit at the break last week and should have led at the break in the first
week.
Advice
1 pt Lions to win by 1-5 points (5/1
general)
1 pt Australia to win by 1-5 points
(9/2 general)
1 pt Australia/Lions (15/2
Sportingbet)
1 pt Lions/Australia (13/2 general)
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