We all have our own different perceptions of what makes value but when you see last season’s domestic double winners priced up at 12/5 to beat a side who they smashed 5-2 in the German Cup final and beat by eight points behind them in the league, then you get the feeling that one side may be too big, and Borussia Dortumund cannot be turned down at 12-5 tonight against Bayern Munich.
Dortmund have won the last 5 meetings between the two yet are still quite unfancied by the bookmakers, presumably upon the basis of reputation. Bayern have gone on a spending spree in response to one of the most galling ends towards a season in years, adding Tom Starke, Mitchell Wieser, Xherdan Shaqiri, Claudio Pizarro, Mario Mandžukić, and Dante to a squad already filled with quality. The main problem is that Dortmund aren’t lacking in stars either and while they’ve lost Kagawa to Manchester United, Marco Reus is as good a replacement as they could have asked for and no changes are needed for the reigning champions, although their central midfield pairing of Sebastian Kehl and Sven Bender will be missing and Gotze has to come in off the bench thanks to an eye infection.
Bayern too are injury hit to some extent a wide number of absentees including David Alaba (stress foot fracture), Rafinha (pulled ankle ligaments), Diego Contento (hairline foot fracture). The game will also come too soon for Bastian Schweinsteiger and Mario Gomez, which leaves them looking a little vulnerable going back on themselves, and they’re opposable on balance, and certainly at the prices – strongly consider the 4/6 offered by Paddy Power that Dortmund don’t lose in 90 minutes.
Advice
1 pt Borussia Dortmund (12/5 general)
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