Nunthorpe Stakes 2012

3.40 York

Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Class 1)  (2YO plus)

Winner £141,775

Advice: 1 pt each/way Ortensia (11/2 general), Nocturnal Affair (25/1 general)

Bated Breath: Long been confirmed as a top class sprinter and fourth Group 1 second in Ascot at King’s Stand Stakes would make him mighty hard to beat here; Worry is that recent rain could have an effect like it did last year when he was just ninth alright that came with him being on the wrong side of the course as well (winner and second drawn 11 and 15); Major chance.

Confessional: Built on what has already been a pretty outstanding season by his own standard when fourth behind Ortensia in the King George Stakes last time out but in all honestly flattered by that distance and now significantly worse off with winner, so others preferred.

Dandy Boy: Famed for posting a faster time in winning Wokingham than Black Caviar did on same card although failed to back that up in July Cup, although heavy ground should be given as an excuse for that.

Hamish McGonagall: Second in this last year although possible to suggest that he might have been flattered by that with the way the pace unfolded; Since won Listed contest here (making it 4 C&D wins) but miles behind Ortensia in King George at Goodwood and hard to see him reverse thant form today even back on his best form.

Humidor: Beaten on all 6 starts since winning Listed event at Doncaster over a year today and while his sixth in the King George and little bit of a return to form, he was still really well beaten and hard to see him having major impact on today’s race.

Masamah: Three time C&D winner who seemed to be getting back to best when a closeish third Behind Ortensia last time at Goodwood; Worse off and beaten in conditions event last time out but not impossible to see him outrunning his odds if on better terms with hemslef than earlier this year.

Moinesur Joe: Took Listed contest at Deauville (very soft, 5f) under Peslier to follow up back to form Listed third here but behind Hamish McGonagall on that occasion and finishes of no better than 11^th in both Temple and King’s Stand Stakes suggests that he’s not quote upto Group 1 level.

Nocturnal Affair: Very smart handicapper turned pattern grade horse who posted career best after career best in the UAE when sixth to Ortensia in the Group 1 Al Quoz Stakes; First run since back on dire ground when second to in Inxile (useful market for the grade) at Tipperary was a hugely encouraging reappearance and can be expected to do better here on quicker ground with that run under his belt and great chance of outrunning his odds.

Secret Witness: Nearly pulled off valuable handicap double in the pace of 24 hours back here in May (that come after an excellent effort at Ascot the time before) and soon followed that up with fourth in Group 3 along with second in York handicap; Been unplaced twice since though and this too tough.

Sole Power: Became one of a number of shock winners of this event in 2010 but to his credit as since proven himself well worthy of Group 1 winners status and unlucky not to land another one since, especially when third in Prix L’Abbaye at Longchamp last year; Has to be in the mix there even if beaten by Bated Breath twice recently and also when beaten by Ortensia as well.

Sprit Quartz: Running well in defeat since his move to Britain, placing in succession of top races and doing so once again when fourth in Coral Charge and then once again when second to Ortensia; Worse of at weight but sure to be a place contender once again.

Tangerine Trees: Fine year last season, when winning the L’Abbaye at the backend of last season; Not quite in same form this time around although been set three very hard tasks so far this season; This a possibility of back to his best.

Tiddliwinks: Sprung 25/1 shock with 6f Group 2 win here in May and followed that up with tenacious win in the Greenlands Stakes at Curragh; Penalty and deep ground might have had something to do with that but drop down to this trip might not be in his best interest in this company.

Bogart: Second string for yard with Tiddliwinks, and shaped very promisingly on return behind said stablemate in Duke Of York Stakes but form has since regressed quite a bit since then then and others make more appeal at this trip especially.

Pearl Secret: Unbeaten in four races (all at this trip on ground ranging from heavy to good), impressing hugely this season notable with handicap win at Doncaster and clear cut conditions win at York, before doing just what he had to do at Sandown where not much went his own way; Clearly extremely classy and more to come on just fifth start, but this a huge step up and big test for him; Goes on any ground, but rain might have helped his cause.

Beyond Desire: Speedy front runner who is best suited by making the running at this trip, as she showed when landing Mares’s Group 3 at Longchamp

Invincible Ash: Very smart, as he’s shown this year especially with conditions Stakes win at Meydan over Sole Power and creditable seventh in the big event; Not lived up the same standards since here and others make a bit more appeal here.

Ortensia: Top class mare who looked set to take high rank in 5f sprinting division after Group 1 double in Australia and Dubai, beating several Group 1 winners in latter in exceptional style (Sole Power included); Not had everything drop quite right for her in UK, getting upset at Royal Ascot and then slogging through heavy ground in July Cup, but on quick surface over 5 at Godoowd she proved untouchable under penalty latest despite finding herself further back than ideal.

Angels Will Fall: Quite well fancied for King George Stakes at Goodwood off the back of smoothly travelling 5f Listed fillies win but that race a whole lot weaker than this and passed over now.

VERDICT: Despite heavy rain yesterday the ground has stayed good, which gives ideal conditions for the cream of the crop to come to the fore in a race that’s had it’s fair share of shocks, with the last 4 winners having gone off 12/1, 9/1, 100/1 & 20/1. Bated Breath, Sole Power and ORTENSIA are the main form protagonists, with the latter making by far the most appeal based on her career best Al Quoz Sprint win where she had the beating of Sole Power (and therefore Bated Breath) despite coming extremely wide after a tardy start. The fact that Paul Messara’s mare tends to lose some ground in the middle of her races is a worry but if she can be kept in touch than nothing will finish faster late on. Given that this race has such a history of giving a shock, it could prove wise to have at least one outsider onside in mind and NOCTURNAL AFFAIR, who was sixth in the Al Quoz Sprint, has been improving for just about a year, and posted an excellent effort when second to Inxile on ground that would have been far too soft for him at Tipperary.