The inaugural match of the Rugby Championship was a
thrilling one but the result between New Zealand and Australia was an all too
familiar one – that of an Australian defeat to the All Blacks – and the beating
may be even heavier this time around at the fortress that is Eden Park. The
Aussies have been asked to give up 15 points on the handicap and that’s going
to get a lot of interest but those who want to get their welly behind the All
Blacks should be aware of the fact that only 3 of their last 13 wins over Australia
have come by 15 or more points and the tries and points totals have also been
fairly low for games with players of such quality.
New Zealand won in Sydney 29-17 but that didn’t tell the
whole story as a catalogue of Wallaby errors cost Australia dearly (they failed
to make a bonus point thanks to Dan Carter’s late penalty) after the boot of
Berrick Barnes had hauled them back into contention from 18-3 down. Australia were excellent with the ball in
hand but poor in defence with a raft of missed tackles and poor handling, which
of course gave the game straight towards the All Blacks’ tremendous speed with
the ball in hand.
New Zealand coach Steve Hansen blamed the mistakes and 28
penalties – which would have been even more had it not been for the regular
whistling of referee Alain Rolland – on a quick return from the Super 15 grand
final but it’s only going to get more difficult for the Australians at Eden
Park and all of this without their star man David Pocock due to injury. The
flanker is at the heart of everything Australia do and was crucial to all of
the good, quick clean attacking ball they had last week, so to say that his
absence has come at the wrong time is an understatement of quite epic
proportions. Quade Cooper comes back into the side but has been out of the fold
at this level for quite a while and is much better when Pocock is available to
provide the ball that he thrives on so often. Sekope Kepu, the tighthead prop,
also misses out with a knee injury, which leaves the Wallabies badly exposed.
Michael Hooper’s not a patch on Pocock, Drew Mitchell is coming from a long
injury layoff on his own of the wing, and overall the whole team seems to have
been shifted around a lot to make place for the one player.
It’s not a bend that augurs well and it’s one that leaves Australia
open at the back, and New Zealand should be capable of scoring 30 points or
more in this game. They won their World Cup semi-final here by a score of 20-6
but they had been decimated by fly half injuries at that time and would have put more points on
the board had Piri Weepu not hit a post with a penalty and missed with two more
shots at goal, and the turnaround in personnel should see us given a competitive
chance of landing a score punt. A winning margin punt of 1-12 points would make
some appeal but the Wallabies are often blunt when visiting Eden Park (they’ve
scored 6, 14, and 6 points on their last three visits) and the second half
handicap of -7 with Bet365 appeals more. New Zealand were kept scoreless after
half time in their Rugby World Cup semi – final and their low points tally
suggests they can be pushed hard after the break.
Advice
2 pts New Zealand to score 30 points (4/5 Skybet)
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