Friday, 24 August 2012

Rugby Championship - Australia v New Zealand


The inaugural match of the Rugby Championship was a thrilling one but the result between New Zealand and Australia was an all too familiar one – that of an Australian defeat to the All Blacks – and the beating may be even heavier this time around at the fortress that is Eden Park. The Aussies have been asked to give up 15 points on the handicap and that’s going to get a lot of interest but those who want to get their welly behind the All Blacks should be aware of the fact that only 3 of their last 13 wins over Australia have come by 15 or more points and the tries and points totals have also been fairly low for games with players of such quality.

Israel Dagg of New Zealand scores a try with Adam Ashley-Cooper of AustraliaNew Zealand won in Sydney 29-17 but that didn’t tell the whole story as a catalogue of Wallaby errors cost Australia dearly (they failed to make a bonus point thanks to Dan Carter’s late penalty) after the boot of Berrick Barnes had hauled them back into contention from 18-3 down.  Australia were excellent with the ball in hand but poor in defence with a raft of missed tackles and poor handling, which of course gave the game straight towards the All Blacks’ tremendous speed with the ball in hand.

New Zealand coach Steve Hansen blamed the mistakes and 28 penalties – which would have been even more had it not been for the regular whistling of referee Alain Rolland – on a quick return from the Super 15 grand final but it’s only going to get more difficult for the Australians at Eden Park and all of this without their star man David Pocock due to injury. The flanker is at the heart of everything Australia do and was crucial to all of the good, quick clean attacking ball they had last week, so to say that his absence has come at the wrong time is an understatement of quite epic proportions. Quade Cooper comes back into the side but has been out of the fold at this level for quite a while and is much better when Pocock is available to provide the ball that he thrives on so often. Sekope Kepu, the tighthead prop, also misses out with a knee injury, which leaves the Wallabies badly exposed. Michael Hooper’s not a patch on Pocock, Drew Mitchell is coming from a long injury layoff on his own of the wing, and overall the whole team seems to have been shifted around a lot to make place for the one player.

It’s not a bend that augurs well and it’s one that leaves Australia open at the back, and New Zealand should be capable of scoring 30 points or more in this game. They won their World Cup semi-final here by a score of 20-6 but they had been decimated by fly half injuries  at that time and would have put more points on the board had Piri Weepu not hit a post with a penalty and missed with two more shots at goal, and the turnaround in personnel should see us given a competitive chance of landing a score punt. A winning margin punt of 1-12 points would make some appeal but the Wallabies are often blunt when visiting Eden Park (they’ve scored 6, 14, and 6 points on their last three visits) and the second half handicap of -7 with Bet365 appeals more. New Zealand were kept scoreless after half time in their Rugby World Cup semi – final and their low points tally suggests they can be pushed hard after the break.


Advice

2 pts New Zealand to score 30 points (4/5 Skybet)

1 pt New Zealand -7 on 2nd half handicap (evs Betfred)

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